If you don’t want spoilers for the 2025 NFL season, look away.
I typically write about the NFL in terms of probabilities — the chance the Eagles repeat as Super Bowl champions, the probability the Bengals get back to the playoffs, the odds the Browns are actually the best team in football (OK, maybe not that one).
But every so often, we need to inject certainty into a forecast. After all, the upcoming NFL season will play out only one way. So why not simulate the season one time and see what happens?
That’s what we’re doing here. We’re detailing the story of a single simulation from ESPN’s Football Power Index, which normally uses 10,000 simulations to build its projections. To be clear, this is not my prediction or ESPN Analytics’ prediction of how this season will unfold. (Vikings fans still in my mentions about Minnesota’s 4-13 record in last year’s simulation — please read that sentence.) This is simply simulation No. 4,091 — what definitely, absolutely, certainly could happen in 2025. Let’s play it out.
See FPI’s full projections for the 2025 season
Eleven months after the Chiefs and Eagles squared off in Super Bowl LIX, both teams cleaned out their lockers following Week 18. Neither managed to make it back to the playoffs, easily the shocker of the 2025 campaign in this simulation.
The Eagles were actually done before the final week. Thought to be infallible heading into the season, the Eagles were 5-4 after Week 10 — a game behind the Cowboys but still seemingly in control of their postseason destiny. But that turned into a 6-8 record, leaving Philadelphia in pure panic mode. In the end, the Eagles couldn’t make up the gap, falling short in the NFC East and wild-card battle.
The Chiefs’ collapse was much more startling. Kansas City controlled its destiny in the AFC West after beating the Broncos on Christmas Day to improve to 9-7. It needed to only to beat the Raiders to secure its 11th straight playoff spot. But Patrick Mahomes’ clutch gene was nowhere to be found as the Chiefs fell 28-19, allowing the Broncos — who won their Week 18 game — to win the division on a tiebreaker. No wild-card bid for the Chiefs either.
The two defending conference champions weren’t the only surprising teams to miss the playoffs in 2025. The Commanders, 49ers and Packers all missed the postseason, too.
The Steelers’ bid for the aging superstar quarterback was always a long shot upside play. Ultimately, the poor play that started in Green Bay in 2022 and continued in New York in 2024 couldn’t be reversed.
Things started OK. Rodgers got his revenge on the Jets in Week 1, and a 3-2 start prompted optimism. But a five-game losing streak hit, with losses to the Bengals, Packers, Colts, Chargers and Bengals again. At that point, it was clear that the Steelers’ season — and Rodgers’ career — was over.
The AFC West wasn’t so tough after all. Despite optimism from all four teams entering the season, no one separated from the pack or put up a gaudy record. But someone had to prevail.
Denver became the first team in a decade to dethrone the Chiefs from their AFC West crown. Tied with the Chargers at 8-8 entering Week 18, the Broncos secured the division title with an 18-15 win over Justin Herbert, Jim Harbaugh and the Chargers.
The win was indicative of the Broncos’ strengths, as the offense provided just enough help for a smothering defense. Denver finished the season ranked first in defensive EPA per play.
Like in the AFC West, it wasn’t that another team took the division crown from the Eagles as much as Philadelphia being sucked into the division’s overall mediocrity. And when the Eagles stumbled, Dallas took advantage.
Maybe we shouldn’t be that surprised that the Cowboys made the playoffs (even if winning the division seemed unlikely). Though the preseason chatter was all about Micah Parsons and his eventual trade, the remaining foundation of this team still included Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. Considering Prescott finished second in QBR in 2023, Dallas was always capable of having a quality offense, and it was good enough in this case to make up for missing Parsons. Young pass rushers Donovan Ezeiruaku and Sam Williams stepping up helped, too.
In the end, the Cowboys won the division with a 9-8 record, though they fizzled again in the postseason with a wild-card loss.
Even in a season when the Chiefs and Eagles missed the playoffs, what happened in the AFC South turned heads. Somehow, Colts coach Shane Steichen unlocked the 2022 version of Daniel Jones, leaning on the legs of the former Giants quarterback while Lou Anarumo and the new-look secondary turned around the defense. The result was a 10-7 record and playoff berth.
But the real AFC South story was the red-hot start of Cam Ward and the Titans. Tennessee began the season 9-3 as Ward took the league by storm. He was the talk of the NFL through 13 weeks and had a lock on the Offensive Rookie of the Year race. But the Titans proceeded to rattle off a five-game losing streak as the league caught up to the rookie QB, and Tennessee limped into the playoffs with a 9-8 record.
While the Colts stole the division from the Titans, Tennessee was able to turn the tables in the wild-card round. The result? A 34-13 blowout in Tennessee’s favor at Lucas Oil Stadium.
With the Browns and Steelers nonfactors, it was clear by midseason that the AFC North would come down to Baltimore and Cincinnati. The race peaked in Week 15, when the two teams — then tied at 7-6 — squared off for their second meeting.
It was a classic in Baltimore. Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson traded big throws against seemingly helpless defenses — the quarterbacks combined for an outrageous eight touchdown passes. But the Ravens finally got the stop they needed, and rookie Tyler Loop finished off the Bengals with a 43-yard field goal as time expired to give the Ravens a 41-38 victory. The win put Baltimore up a game in the standings and also gave it a head-to-head tiebreaker against the Bengals. It was needed, as the Ravens and Bengals both finished 10-7.
The lack of home-field advantage proved costly for the Bengals, who lost a wild-card heartbreaker in Denver 35-32. The Ravens took advantage of playing at home, dispatching the Dolphins 34-17 in the wild-card round and the Broncos 24-22 in the divisional round to go to the AFC Championship Game.
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