MLS Cup playoffs: Bet against Messi, Miami at your own peril

It’s Monday, and the final week of MLS action is in the books, which means it’s time for ESPN’s Power Rankings.

Who looks the strongest heading into the postseason? Who may be one and done? Our writers studied the action from across Decision Day to come up with this week’s order of the playoff participants. Let’s dive in.

There are a few things working against the Union. They ended the season with a 2-0 loss to Charlotte on Decision Day, and just two Supporters’ Shield winners in the past decade have also lifted MLS Cup. Still, Philly racked up the most points of any team this year with a combination of strengths that have propelled teams to the title before — namely a resolute back line and a veteran goalkeeper.

Bet against Lionel Messi at your own peril. The Argentine superstar capped an MVP season with a hat trick and an assist in a 5-2 win over Nashville, the very team Miami now will face in a Round One series. Questions at the back persist, but what Messi, Luis Suárez & Co. can do going forward may be enough to paper over those deficiencies.

A Decision Day bobble saw the Whitecaps fall 2-1 to Dallas and miss out on a chance to hold the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. An early red card to defender Mathías Laborda changed that match. Now, Vancouver looks ahead to a best-of-three series against that same FCD, which will provide an opportunity to allow their quality over the course of the season show.

Now that’s how you end a season. Despite missing Hirving “Chucky” Lozano, San Diego rolled past Portland in a 4-0 road triumph and secured the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference in its expansion campaign. Anders Dreyer starred with a pair of goals and an assist but got a boost as well from Amahl Pellegrino’s double. Now, SDFC await their Round One opponent.

The drama of LAFC’s Decision Day dropped after Messi’s early hat trick, making a Denis Bouanga Golden Boot push implausible. Still, LAFC flashed more of the chemistry the Gabon international has with summer signing Son Heung-Min in a 2-2 draw with Colorado. First-round opponent Austin is one of few teams who beat Los Angeles after Son’s arrival, but manager Steve Cherundolo will have his sights set on leaving the club with one more trophy.

FCC enter the playoffs hot, with a 3-0 win over Montreal on the final day, the fifth match in a row Cincinnati has enjoyed without tasting defeat. Evander and Brenner, the key players in attack, both scored and go into the postseason in good form. The defense closed the season on two clean sheets, with Matt Miazga also getting closer to a return.

The Sounders won the cross-conference battle with NYCFC 2-1 on the road, their third win in a row, but Pedro de la Vega suffered a knee injury, making it that much more unlikely Seattle will have all three Designated Players healthy for the postseason. Still, this is a deep team and Brian Schmetzer’s comment that “nobody wants to play us in the playoffs” rings true.

Throw out a meaningless Decision Day match against the Galaxy, which Minnesota lost 2-1, and look at the Loons’ body of work and you have a team that has a strong identity, a good defense and one of the best goalkeepers in the league this year in Dayne St. Clair. They’ll be a tough out, and that first-round series against Seattle looks like one of the best for neutrals to enjoy.

A 2-0 win against Supporters’ Shield-winning Philadelphia that secured home-field advantage in the first round would’ve been a perfect Decision Day were it not for Wilfried Zaha’s red card in the dying moments of the game for a moment of frustration with the Union’s Jesús Bueno. Now, Charlotte will have to win without the winger to start the playoffs at Bank of America Stadium, although they’ve been superb at home.

Nashville won its first-ever trophy, lifting the U.S. Open Cup. It was a huge bright spot, but, in league play, the team ran out of steam a bit down the stretch, falling 5-2 to Inter Miami on Decision Day, a seventh loss in the past ten matches of the season. Now, NSC have to find their earlier-season form against the same Miami team that just bullied them.

NYCFC dropped three of their last four contests of the regular season, including a 2-1 home loss to Seattle on Saturday. Forward Alonso Martínez’s good form for club and country, plus Nicolás Fernández’s third goal since arriving in the losing effort, will need to give the team a boost in its series against Charlotte.

While the Crew had an up-and-down year by their lofty standards, they closed on a high note with a 3-1 win over the Red Bulls that vaulted them out of the Wild Card round. Scoring three without injured attackers Diego Rossi and Wessam Abou Ali was great news. Less great? To move on in the postseason, they’ll have to get past high-flying Ohio rival Cincinnati in a Hell is Real first-round series.

Minutes after New England forward Dor Turgeman ruined the Fire’s day with a goal to make it a 2-1 Revs lead, he made their day by scoring an own-goal equalizer. The 2-2 score at full time means the Fire will host a Wild Card match against Orlando rather than travel for it. Avoid conceding in the first minute like they did on Decision Day, and the Fire’s chances to move on will go up exponentially.

What happened to Orlando? A 4-2 loss to Toronto on Decision Day saw the Lions slide all the way into the final playoff place in the East. The attack is still creating chances, but not at a high-enough level to overcome the defensive errors that continue to dog the Central Florida club.

Locked into its playoff place and resting regulars, Austin fell 2-1 to San Jose on Decision Day. The Verde’s reward is a difficult-looking series against LAFC, although they’ll take heart from having toppled the Hollywood club 1-0 last week. This time, though, LAFC will have internationals like Son, Bouanga and Nathan Ordaz, who missed out on the contest that took place during the international break.

FCD took advantage of a first-half red card issued to a Vancouver defender to earn a 2-1 win over the Whitecaps and clinch their spot in the playoffs. While they will get forwards Petar Musa and Logan Farrington back from suspension, they’ll also be aware they’re now going to get the Whitecaps’ best shot in the best-of-three series starting Sunday.

It’s fair to say the Timbers are limping into the playoffs, having failed to win their past five matches and with just one victory in their past ten. A 4-0 loss to San Diego at Providence Park underlined that Portland has struggled to win at home, even on the classic rainy Oregon nights when it previously excelled.

Victor Olatunji’s double had RSL up 2-0 in St. Louis, but the lead slipped away from Pablo Maestroeni’s side. Still, a 2-2 draw was enough to put RSL into the postseason, if not to inspire confidence in their chances going forward.