After the other three MLB wild-card series ended in sweeps, all eyes are on Milwaukee, where the New York Mets and Milwaukee Brewers will meet in a Game 3 showdown on Thursday night. The winner gets a National League Division Series date with the Philadelphia Phillies — and the loser goes home.
Which side has the edge? We’ve got you covered with predictions, keys, lineups, live updates and analysis as the games are played, followed by our takeaways after the final pitch.
Key links: MLB playoff preview | Bracket | Picks | Watch on ESPN
Pitching matchup: Jose Quintana (10-10, 3.75 ERA) vs. Tobias Myers (9-6, 3.00 ERA)
What is the key to Game 3 for the Mets?
David Schoenfield: A key will be how manager Carlos Mendoza strategizes the late innings. He didn’t bring in closer Edwin Diaz for a six-out save in Game 2 like he did Monday against the Braves, but Diaz now has two days off after throwing 40 pitches in that game and 26 the day before. Phil Maton blew the lead in Game 2; he’s pitched four times in five days and hasn’t looked good his past two outings (especially after serving up the two home runs Wednesday). The trust factor may be low with him, which will force Mendoza to consider his other relievers or even starter David Peterson (who last pitched on Sunday).
Bradford Doolittle: The Mets need to find some long-ball power. They’ve done a tremendous job of stringing together rallies and hitting with runners in scoring position. But they haven’t gone deep and it’s hard to imagine them winning again without homering in one of baseball’s most homer-friendly venues.
Jesse Rogers: Which version of Quintana shows up? Is it the one who produced a 5.63 ERA in August or the one who finished the season strong, compiling a 0.72 mark in September? You can be assured that if he’s starting an elimination game, the Mets believe the most recent version is the real Quintana. Watch his curveball. If it’s on, the Mets may advance.
What is the key to Game 3 for the Brewers?
Schoenfield: The Brewers need to try to turn this into a bullpen game — which means trying to work up Quintana’s pitch count if possible. Quintana has a below-average walk rate and a below-average strikeout rate, so he’s a guy you can have a patient approach with at the plate and not worry about him blowing you away with pure stuff. The Mets’ pen is running a little bit on fumes given the push just to get in, so that can work to Milwaukee’s advantage the earlier you knock out Quintana. For the Brewers, it will be the same pitching strategy as Wednesday: Don’t expect starter Tobias Myers to go very deep and trust the bullpen that has been so good all season. And use Devin Williams for more than three outs if needed.
Doolittle: The Brewers need to play a clean game. They’ve been one of baseball’s elite defensive teams all season, but the Mets leveraged a key lapse into a five-run inning in Game 1 and scored what might have been a decisive run on an error in Game 2. If the Brewers can keep it clean and get into the middle innings, they can roll out their A-bullpen and let their athletes go to work on the basepaths. They just need to avoid rally-starting mistakes.
Rogers: Bullpen, bullpen, bullpen. Since the fifth-inning implosion in Game 1 — aided by some shoddy defense — the Brewers’ pen has pitched a complete-game shutout. It went 4 scoreless innings to end Tuesday’s game then 5 shutout innings Wednesday. It’s clear that manager Pat Murphy isn’t going extend his starters past three or four innings as evidenced by his early hooks of Freddy Peralta and Frankie Montas so the pen is going to be huge one way or another in Game 3.
Who will move on to the NLDS?
Schoenfield: The Mets have overcome adversity all season — the slow start, the injury to Kodai Senga, almost blowing that game to the Braves on Monday before the dramatic Francisco Lindor home run. I’m a little worried about their late-game bullpen situation, but I still believe in this offense. The Mets win 4-3 and move on to face the Phillies in a big NL East showdown.
Doolittle: This is the Brewers’ time. Milwaukee has too many bullpen weapons and more ways to win on offense. We started to see those differences surface Wednesday. If the Mets don’t get off to a quick start in Game 3, I think the Brewers will win … and Milwaukee’s starter, Myers, has been outstanding.
Tune in at game time for live updates and analysis of Game 3.