In between joint practice skirmishes and proclamations of draft steals/busts off training camp clips shot at a Dutch angle, we are right on the cusp of an onslaught of NFL preseason games.
There have been rumors, and counter-rumors, and re-rumors, and a dog in a hat, of an upcoming trade involving San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk and, depending on what time you last checked, the Cleveland Browns, New England Patriots, and/or Pittsburgh Steelers.
The 49ers, juggling a current and upcoming salary cap situation that involves most of their current core, including the potential megadeal for quarterback Brock Purdy, are allowing Aiyuk to test the market to get ahead of potentially losing him for nothing or guaranteeing the use of the franchise tag, which takes away a potential chip for any of the 49ers’ other pending free agents.
Aiyuk, coming off a second-team All-Pro nod, has a market. But what makes him worth the rumored price point that could fetch north of $30 million annually?
Brandon Aiyuk simply moves different. That is not to say he is faster than everyone, because he is not, but Aiyuks body control and flexibility are noteworthy. His ability to bound and burst in and out of his routes, skipping forward into his route break like Indiana Jones spelling out Jehovah and freezing flummoxed cornerbacks:
Brandon Aiyuk’s routes are 1 of 1 pic.twitter.com/rXdEmyoryQ
Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) December 4, 2023
And moving at angles that a large swath of the leagues players couldnt even fathom, spreading his legs apart like he’s about to execute a crossover dribble but seemingly losing very little acceleration as he speeds past defenders who have advantageous leverage on him:
the jump splits route break from Brandon Aiyuk pic.twitter.com/PQRmTInWmM
Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) August 7, 2024
Aiyuk has not only blossomed into a valuable pass catcher who can win consistently against man coverage, but a more complete receiver and football player overall. Aiyuks traits jump out right away, but he is really starting to get a knack for playing the position. His disco-like route running style isnt empty calorie stuff. As you can see in the clips above, Aiyuks ability to burst in and out of his movements makes defenders uneasy, and he started to get fed as an isolated receiver who could thrive on the ball and against press, while also showing more detail for the position that makes him a consistent link in the chain of progression.
Aiyuks route running has become more nuanced, his chaotic movements refined and focused by head coach Kyle Shanahan (a long underrated coach of the receiver position) and the 49ers’ staff. His mustang-like route running of his early career still is seemingly as wild as ever, but is now clapping to the rhythm of the offense.
Aiyuk’s box score statistics of 1,342 yards came at a chunky 17.9-yard-per-reception clip, but these routes werent just shot plays down the field. He is an absolute machine on out-breaking routes, benefitting from while also weaponizing the tight splits that are featured in this offense. It creates successful plays, first downs, and explosive plays at a dizzying rate.
out routes are his easy buttons pic.twitter.com/5Ao3SGDFjP
Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) August 7, 2024
easy button https://t.co/7ic6QHHPBr pic.twitter.com/lUNGTA8Alj
Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) August 7, 2024
That movement, route, and adjustment catch translates into any offense. And its a far cry from what Aiyuk was asked to do early in his career. (He even had 11 rushes for 94 yards and two touchdowns over his first two seasons followed by two total carries, both in 2022, over the past two.) His route running has been pushed more downfield in an inverse relationship to his actual skill level. He can win while working at all three levels and in either direction, and is a strong tracker of the football down the field. His body control and hand-eye coordination show up both on long throws and while running after the catch, plus his size and feel show up against zone over the middle.
His average depth of target rose from 9.8 yards in 2021 to 13.8 yards in 2023, with Aiyuks yards before catch rising from 8.6 yards in 2021 to 12.8 in 2023. To further put in perspective Aiyuks rise as a true outside receiver who can win downfield and while isolated: In 2022, Aiyuk had 78 receptions for 1,015 yards, with 627 yards coming before the catch and 388 after; in 2023, he had fewer receptions (75) but 1,342 yards, with 960 of those coming before the catch and 382 afterward. This unreal jump in efficiency resulted in Aiyuk clearing the elite threshold of 3 yards per route run and sitting at or near the top of metrics like first downs (divided by whatever you want) and EPA (albeit on lowerish usage; more on that in a moment).
The 49ers’ offense has been popularized as positionless because of the featured roles of Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and Kyle Juszczyk. Aiyuk used to be a member of that contingent, because while he can still be a threat on manufactured touches, he’s morphed into a real outside receiver who can win while doing the tougher asks like winning against press, leverage and while not in a moving position.
He also, as the result of some visits to Shanahans doghouse and maturing as a player, has turned into a good blocker at the position. He buys into the we all eat philosophy of the 49ers’ team-first offensive attack and opens up lanes in the run game and for his teammates on the edge. Even on assignments away from the point of attack or down the field late on plays, common instances most receivers take off, you could see Aiyuk flying into the muck to dig out his assignment or chopping his feet as he finished his block on a defensive back.
Brandon Aiyuk really took pride in his blocking in 2023. Even when downfield or away from the point of attack, he was giving good effort. pic.twitter.com/BALgKfx0lq
Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) August 7, 2024
Having said all that, it is a tad scary to be plucking Aiyuk from the 49ers’ ecosystem away from Shanahan, McCaffrey, Samuel, Purdy and George Kittle and expecting his performance to CTRL+C and CTRL+V. While I do think Aiyuk has developed into a wide receiver that has a skill set to translate into a variety of schemes and situations, I do think he is already fully unlocked, as many players under Shanahan are.
Aiyuks target share of 22.6% ranked 20th in the NFL and his total routes run of 448 ranked 52nd, behind players like Josh Reynolds, Allen Lazard, Darnell Mooney and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. If he were to move to a new team, he will be asked to perform like the guy on a much higher usage. Having said that, I think he would still be able to perform, maybe not to the hyper-levels seen in Santa Clara, but still like a needle-mover if he were to move on to any of Cleveland, New England or Pittsburgh. But it is still an increased ask when you are expected to win no matter the design of the play or the situation.
All of those potential locations will feature run-first attacks, something that will make the ramp-up easier. He goes from a 49ers offense that uses 12 or 21 personnel, and thus only two wide receivers, on over half of their offensive plays and at one of the highest rates in the NFL. The team that seems most likely to land Aiyuk, the Steelers, actually have a play philosophy that would put him in familiar launch points even in new offensive surroundings under offensive coordinator Arthur Smith. Smiths Falcons used two or fewer receivers at a higher rate than even the 49ers, and featured a twist of offensive ideals that Shanahan has popularized in the league.
Aiyuks ability to win from on-the-ball as an X wide receiver, craftiness to move across the formation, and explosive play ability with the ball in his hands, makes his translation that much easier. The Steelers already have a traditional vertical X wide receiver in George Pickens, but Aiyuks presence would make life much easier on Pickens, while also creating formational freedom for Smith to use his receivers traditionally as on-the-ball players or as players that can move across the formation. Aiyuk can be used as both the deep and intermediate route runner on Smiths play-action staples, either taking the top off to create space for others or as a valid weapon over the middle that can create chunks of yards after the catch. This route and catch is exactly what Smith loves to use in his offenses:
it’s fun when Aiyuk gets the target, too https://t.co/lJzMHMrQk8 pic.twitter.com/KOKyBQGGbi
Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) August 7, 2024
There will be plenty of jokes about Smith using his star players as grunt fodder for players of lesser pedigree, but Aiyuks willingness to contribute in the run game (along with his dormant ability as a runner himself) should be seen as a bonus in what will surely be a beefy attack in Pittsburgh. With the youth that the Steelers have along their offensive line (surplus on cheap contracts applies to non-quarterbacks, too), and the, how to put this nicely, lack of commitment the Steelers have at the quarterback position, an Aiyuk payday once trade terms are agreed upon should be easy to execute.
Aiyuks deep threat ability will be what translates the most with whoever starts at quarterback for the Steelers. Russell Wilson and Justin Fields have similar play styles, with both preferring to do their damage on the outside and down the field, and both doing it best off of longer-developing play-action concepts. Both would benefit as mind-meld partners with Aiyuk if they enter scramble mode and try to create something off-script:
Aiyuk thrives in scramble drill situations, too.I can think of a couple of QBs that are known to run around and launch some throws. They’re on the same team, too… pic.twitter.com/uTxb1ZYWiU
Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) August 7, 2024
And there is plenty of big-play potential if they can start consistently connecting on deep balls, something that can be there for the taking if the Steelers’ young line can start creating a strong run game. (Im bullish on the Steelers’ offense ramping up in the second half of the year.) But whether Wilson or Fields can operate within the structure of the offense to consistently work over the middle of the field, which neither has done so far in their career, will dictate more about Aiyuks role and route tree in Pittsburgh than his actual ability. Or perhaps Smith works wonders and gets the quarterbacks to stand in there and fire things over the middle like prime Ryan Tannehill.
Aiyuk being able to provide gimmes for his quarterback as an isolated receiver is another answer he can give whatever offensive coordinator and quarterback he ends up getting linked up with. An easy button that allows quarterbacks to eschew their progressions and take a simple route to yards in first downs.
Aiyuk has been used as an important cog in an offensive machine so far in his career, but not the engine of that machine. And even if the results end up looking different in his new locale, Aiyuks improved skill set and polish should let him drive a passing game to success no matter where he ends up.