Why 2024-25 could be the most exciting season EVER, was splashed as a headline on the Premier League website this week. A golden age, its author adds before failing in his hyperbolic preview to mention a potentially darker era ahead.
Between the opening fixture dates, September 16 will be circled in red pen by lawyers at the leagues Paddington HQ. That day is the earliest the long-awaited independent hearing into Manchester Citys 115 charges can begin.
The process, as both City and the league point out, is confidential. Yet season-previewing boasts of excitement and golden ages on the leagues website do not apply to the mood behind the scenes. Rarely have the 20-shareholder clubs been so split on various issues this summer. Even in the four weeks prior to the most consequential case in its history, the league must face the fallout from a separate arbitration case brought by City, as well as lingering spending check tensions with Everton, Chelsea and Leicester City.
Motions raised in league meetings are also becoming trickier than ever to pass, with curious alliances formed between various clubs. The so-called big-six versus the rest has been replaced by a mixed bag. The likes of Aston Villa, for instance, have suddenly emerged as one of Citys closest friends.
Nerves will be shredded most of all over 10 weeks into December in which City and the leagues lawyers go toe to toe, however. I think its time now for it to resolve itself, Richard Masters, the leagues chief executive, said this week. Its been going on for a number of years and I think it is self-evident that the case needs to be heard and answered.
A verdict is likely some time between January and March and the stakes for Masters and for City could not be higher. There is a genuine chance City would be expelled from the competition by the end of this season if they lose. Equally, the leagues whole system of financial rules would be left in meltdown if City get the upper hand.
For the key protagonists, everything else even the Premier League title race is no longer a priority until the case is resolved. Both the league and City believe they are ready for the fight. Citys team is spearheaded by Lord Pannick KC, while his Blackstone chamber-mate Adam Lewis KC has signed up to fight the Premier Leagues corner.
As it stands, there is not a safe bet to be laid in this fight. Even the bookmakers appear divided on whether the club ends this season as champions or in disgrace. City, according to the odds, are 6-4 favourites to win the Premier League title but also as low as 8-1 to be relegated.
Never have the Premier Leagues hands been so full. Everton and Nottingham Forest were both deducted points last season for PSR breaches, and it appears inevitable that other clubs most likely Leicester will also face some form of punishment this season.
Leicester were charged in March with an alleged breach and for failing to submit their audited financial accounts. They have vowed to defend themselves against any unlawful acts by the football authorities.
However, as detailed earlier this week by Telegraph Sport, that case is now unlikely to be heard until the new year, such is the workload facing the league in the coming months.
More imminent is a verdict form the arbitration panel into Citys case against the league around associated-party transactions. There have been reports in recent days that City have achieved some successes in that hearing, which would almost certainly be cited as precedent for the alleged rule breach case next month. Other cases which remain unresolved include investigations into allegations of off the book payments during the Roman Abramovich era at Chelsea.
But all pale into relative insignificance compared to the City case, which is immense in its scale. Effectively, the alleged rule breaches include not providing accurate financial information for nine separate seasons, not providing full details of former manager Roberto Mancinis pay over the four seasons he was at the club from 2009 to 2013, and not providing full details of players remuneration over six seasons from 2010-11 to 2015-16.
Masters was right to point out a resolution is now overdue. The investigation was started more than five and a half years ago after allegations first surfaced on German investigative website Der Spiegel.
Whatever happens now, the league must prepare itself for an earthquake. All the precedents would suggest City would face relegation if the case is found entirely proven. Evertons eight-point deduction last season for two rule breaches around financial losses was a far less serious offence. The only comparable case in modern times would be that of Swindon Town, relegated for irregular payments to players. Yet City have denied any wrongdoing and are sparing no expense in proving their case.
We are in a sweet spot, the Premier League season preview said on Thursday. Away from the pitch, however, there is a significant risk that it could all go sour.
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