We have officially approached the midseason point of the regular season and conversations about the College Football Playoff will only continue to grow as we embark throughout the next eight weeks. With two-loss teams more than likely to be included in the 12-team field, what do those teams need to do throughout the second half of the season to look like CFP contenders?
After a tough loss to USC in the season opener, LSU has done everything right since then to position itself for a spot in the conference title game and the CFP. The Tigers have specific facets to improve on, but what have the Tigers done right since that Week 1 loss?
In its first year in the SEC, Oklahoma hasn’t necessarily had the easiest start to the league. With a lot of changes at quarterback and production still low on offense, is it time that the Sooners look toward next season?
Our college football experts break down key takeaways from Week 8.
There has been a lot of discussion about the possibility of two-loss teams qualifying for the 12-team playoff and deservedly so — it is a much more forgiving system. But teams still have to look like a national title contender — and Alabama is far from it.
The two-loss Tide again was plagued by turnovers (two), penalties (15 for 115 yards) and at least three sacks on quarterback Jalen Milroe for the second week in a row. If Alabama continues to play like that, it will remain an afterthought on Selection Day.
The bigger question is how many two-loss teams the committee will have to consider. According to ESPN Analytics, there are still 33 teams with at least a 14% chance of finishing with two or fewer losses — and that includes half of the SEC (Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU, Tennessee, Texas, Georgia, Missouri, and Texas A&M.) That’s more than any other conference (the Big Ten has five — Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State, Indiana and Illinois).
Alabama’s problem isn’t its number of losses; it’s who it lost to (Vanderbilt) and how it lost (and won) — ugly. That’s below the committee’s standards — even in the mighty SEC. — Heather Dinich
Michigan might get a mulligan for some of its shortcomings this season, after losing a team-record 13 players to the NFL draft, along with coach Jim Harbaugh and several of the program’s most important assistants. But there’s simply no excuse for the Wolverines to be this bad at quarterback.
Jack Tuttle on Saturday became Michigan’s third starting quarterback in seven games, and the results weren’t much better. Tuttle struggled with his accuracy and missed open targets. He ended up with decent numbers — 20 completions for 208 passing yards — but had two turnovers, as Michigan failed to score 10 points or more for the first time in a decade (Sept. 6, 2014). Tuttle likely would have been Michigan’s top option to enter the season if he had recovered sooner from a throwing elbow injury. Perhaps he would have found a groove earlier. But Tuttle also has an injury history and never has been a full-time starter. Michigan could have added a transfer quarterback with more starting experience in the spring portal, just in case.
Instead, the Wolverines forged ahead with a group that carried significant questions, and never got on track offensively. Michigan doesn’t deserve a pass for a group that struggles to complete many. — Adam Rittenberg
After a disappointing last-minute loss to USC in its season opener that had a steaming Brian Kelly slamming the press conference table, the Tigers have quietly turned their season into a burgeoning success. Not only have they won every game since but they have shown to have some semblance of a working identity. LSU has been far from mistake-free or perfect in any of its past six games, it doesn’t have a reliable running game, and yet the Tigers have found a way to win.
Since losing to the Trojans by a touchdown, they have won two conference games by a field goal while also handling weaker opponents, including Arkansas this past week, with relative ease. Over the past four games, the shaky defense most saw in Week 1 has forced seven turnovers while, on the other side of the ball, quarterback Garrett Nussmeier leads one of the nation’s 10 best passing attacks. Suddenly, the Tigers are undefeated in conference play and they avoid a matchup with Georgia this season as well.
The win over Ole Miss was impressive, but this next stretch of two games — at Texas A&M next week and hosting Alabama the following week — will be the true test of just how much Kelly’s team has been able to right the ship and turn themselves into what could potentially be a team that plays for the conference title and maybe even more. — Paolo Uggetti
For the first time since 2007, the SEC will enter the month of November without an unbeaten team after Georgia went on the road Saturday and beat up on then-No. 1 Texas 30-15.
Anybody who might have cast the Bulldogs aside after their lackluster 13-12 win over Kentucky or their 41-34 loss to Alabama in Week 4 or their porous defensive showing in a 41-31 win over a 1-6 Mississippi State team hasn’t been paying attention.
Kirby Smart is money in these games. He’s now 6-1 in top-5 matchups, and his teams almost always get better and respond to adversity.
What does it all mean? More cannibalism within the league is almost certainly on the way, leaving open the real possibility that a two-loss SEC team (or teams) could be on the outside looking in when the College Football Playoff committee releases its final rankings for the 12-team bracket on Dec. 8. There are six SEC teams with 6-1 overall records at this point and three more with 5-2 records. A lot of those teams play each other over the next few weeks, and while LSU and Texas A&M might have been a bit of an afterthought after losing their season openers to nonconference opponents, they’re the only two unbeaten teams left in SEC play and square off this Saturday in College Station.
It’s setting up to be a wild finish in the SEC. Missouri still has to play at Alabama (Oct. 26), Texas A&M at South Carolina (Nov. 2), Georgia at Ole Miss and Alabama at LSU (Nov. 9), Tennessee at Georgia (Nov. 16) and Texas at Texas A&M (Nov. 30). And that’s just a sampling. Don’t sleep on Vanderbilt at least being a factor. The Commodores get Texas (Oct. 26) and Tennessee (Nov. 30) at home. Georgia has the SEC’s best nonconference win (Clemson), and Alabama’s win over Georgia could be a separator for the Tide if they can break out of their funk and win out. Either way, there’s a lot to sort out. — Chris Low
Since Florida State joined the ACC in 1992, one certainty had prevailed: The Seminoles would always beat Duke.
That is, of course, until Friday night.
While it is true Florida State is in the middle of a nightmare season — the type that had been commonplace for Duke in nearly all their previous matchups — the record books will count the Blue Devils’ 23-16 win as a historic first regardless. Duke picked up its first-ever win over the Seminoles with a stingy defense, the type that Manny Diaz promised to bring when he took over for Mike Elko this season.
Elko, a defensive wizard in his own right, had turned around the Duke program in two short years with a solid defense of his own. But Diaz has elevated a good unit into one that has become far more aggressive. Duke leads the nation in tackles for loss with 69, ranks No. 7 in sacks (24) and ranks No. 4 in yards per play allowed (4.29) — nearly one yard fewer per play than last season (when Duke went 8-5).
Duke also forced three turnovers on three straight plays to turn the Florida State game, giving the Blue Devils 13 on the season. While the offense has struggled to find consistency, the defense has led the way. Diaz probably likes it that way considering his background. Duke is now 6-1 and bowl eligible after being picked to finish 11th in the preseason media poll.
Nobody quite knew what to expect out of a team that lost its head coach, starting quarterback and a plethora of others to the draft and transfer portal. The road ahead gets tougher — four of its five remaining opponents have winning records, starting with SMU on Saturday and then a trip to Diaz’s former employer, Miami, on Nov. 2. No matter what happens, though, Duke will always have its historic moment. — Andrea Adelson
Oklahoma and Nebraska reached new lows Saturday in what are quickly spiraling into sobering seasons for the former Big Eight Conference rivals.
Nebraska suffered a 56-7 defeat to Indiana for its second-biggest loss since joining the Big Ten in 2011 — and third-biggest loss over the past 75 years, according to ESPN Research. Matt Rhule is now 0-5 against ranked opponents as Nebraska’s head coach, while the Huskers have lost 26 straight to AP ranked teams.
At least Nebraska (5-2) is a win away from bowl eligibility.
After South Carolina embarrassed them 35-9 at home, the Sooners (4-3) are in danger of missing out on a bowl for the first time since the John Blake era (1996-98).
Oklahoma’s offense is in disarray. The Sooners rank 133rd in offensive EPA, ahead of only Kennesaw State.
Other than a meeting with FCS Maine, OU figures to be heavy underdogs in every game the rest of the way. Welcome to the SEC. — Jake Trotter
When Jeff Lebby left Oklahoma to become the head coach at Mississippi State, Brent Venables went the safe route and promoted from within, naming Seth Littrell and Joe Jon Finley his co-offensive coordinators. Through seven games, that decision has yielded disastrous consequences. And now, Venables is moving on from offensive coordinator Seth Littrell.
Oklahoma’s 35-9 home loss to South Carolina was over soon after it started, with a stunning 21-0 swing in the first six minutes on three turnovers by true freshman QB Michael Hawkins Jr. The staff went back to Jackson Arnold four weeks after benching him, but Arnold couldn’t spark much while getting sacked eight times. In fairness to the QBs, it’s hard to identify any position groups on OU’s offense that are playing well.
Venables is switching playcallers, but it’s officially time to start thinking ahead for 2025. The head coach needs to identify an offensive coordinator who can turn things around and effectively keep him off the hot seat next year. Then he needs to go get him.
The blueprint going forward might be comparable to what Arkansas coach Sam Pittman’s moves were entering 2024: Hire a proven OC (Bobby Petrino), find a promising quarterback in the portal (Taylen Green of Boise State) and reload with a dozen transfers on offense. If that OC candidate can bring his starting QB with him, even better.
These are difficult decisions. They could end up defining Venables’ tenure. But at this point, he clearly realizes they’re unavoidable. — Max Olson
It doesn’t take a vivid imagination to envision a world in which the California Golden Bears are 7-0 and ranked in the top 10. Instead, Cal is living in a vastly different reality: sole possession of last place in the ACC. The Bears have dropped their first four conference games by a combined nine points.
Find one play in each of those losses to go differently and Cal might have won, which makes it hard to evaluate this team. On one hand, you can make the case it is a victim of terrible, horrible, no good, very bad luck. On the other, there is the case that Cal has consistently mismanaged its way out of success and doesn’t have what it takes to win close games.
The most fair way to look at it is somewhere in between, but this is a bottom-line business and you are what your record says you are. The good vibes from the GameDay visit and the Calgorithm can only buoy spirits for so long. — Kyle Bonagura
The service academy rivals turned in two of the top six scoring performances among AP Top 25 offenses in Week 8. Both unbeaten at this stage of the season for the first time since 1945, Army and Navy are a pair of bonafide Group of 5 playoff contenders in 2024, surging this fall behind two of college football’s most impressive offensive turnarounds.
Army improved to 7-0 Saturday in a 45-28 win over East Carolina behind five rushing scores from Bryson Daily. The Black Knights quarterback’s 19 rushing touchdowns lead the nation this fall, and Army hits its bye week with the FBS’ top rushing attack, averaging 359.1 yards per game. Meanwhile in Annapolis, three first-quarter scores from fullback (!) Alex Tecza was the spark for Navy in a 51-17 win over Charlotte that sends the Midshipmen into the back half of their season 6-0 with the nation’s fourth-highest scoring offense at 44.8 points per game.
Eight weeks into the 2024 regular season, Army and Navy sit fourth and ninth respectively in scoring margin among FBS offenses as the AAC’s last two remaining unbeatens, enjoying a pair of offensive renaissances that exist in stark contrast to the school’s recent histories.
After finishing 114th in scoring and 120th in total offense a year ago, Army has totaled more points (283) than all but seven FBS attacks in 2024, under the leadership of first-year offensive coordinator Cody Worley. And in Year 2 under coach Brian Newberry, a Navy offense that finished no better than 105th in points per game over the previous three years finds itself on pace to have one of the nation’s top-five per-game scoring margins this fall.
Navy’s attack will be tested in Week 9 when it meets Notre Dame at MetLife Stadium. Ditto for Army when it runs into the Irish at Yankee Stadium on Nov. 23. It’s clear, however, that the offenses at Army and Navy are decidedly back in 2024, fueling surprise playoff contention and promising fireworks when the school’s meet for the 125th time on Dec. 14. — Eli Lederman