MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC 322 co-main event between Valentina Shevchenko and Zhang Weili.
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The co-main event for UFC 322 features a superfight between the current flyweight champion, southpaw Valentina Shevchenko, and former strawweight champ Zhang Weili.
Indoctrinated into martial arts through her family, Shevchenko has been a practitioner of combat sports since she was 4, amassing multiple titles in K-1 and the IFMA (the same organization where she fought and beat Joanna Jedrzejczyk three times).
A counter-fighter by nature, Shevchenko wields all the weapons that a southpaw should never leave home without, keeping everything from check hooks to counter crosses on a hair trigger. Whenever someone tries to step off to the champions weak side, she offers answers in the form of spinning assaults that pair perfectly with liver kicks to help keep her opposition corralled.
Shevchenko has understated weapons like jabs that can help facilitate the heavy body and head kicks that she keeps in her back pocket, but its ultimately her fundamentals and distance management abilities that serve as the foundation for her style.
Although Shevchenko will be facing a smaller fighter this Saturday, she will need to respect the speed and skills coming her way.
Though listed as a fighter who hails from a wushu sanda background, Zhang continues to add to her striking arsenal as her MMA career continues.
The former strawweight champion can come forward aggressively but ultimately prefers staying light on her feet all while using feints to open up kicks and hooking combinations.
Like many sanda practitioners, Zhang is not shy in using spinning attacks when the positions call for it. Whether shes corralling her opponents into turning sidekicks or countering outside-foot approaches with spinning backfists, the 36-year-old seems confident striking from multiple roles and ranges.
When operating in open-stance situations, Zhang will utilize her lead sidekick like a jab, helping her gauge the distance shes working with. And when Zhang feels like shes got a grasp on the timing and range, shes not shy about lancing in with jabs and crosses to close the distance.
However, outside of a natural feel for distance and the occasional slip off the center, Zhang has shown that she is not immune to being stung by hard counters during her aggressive engagements particularly when throwing kicks.
For that reason, I’ll be curious to see if Zhang shelves any of her kicks considering the looming takedown threats from the champion.
As alluded to in the previous section, Shevchenko has a knack for hitting takedowns in a countering fashion that may come to light in closed quarters.
Like weve seen in past Shevchenko fights, fighters who come in hot on the champion tend to get grounded accordingly particularly when trying to do so from the clinch.
No longer underrated inside this space, Shevchenko possesses all the tools you would expect from a muay Thai practitioner. Not only does Shevchenko wield mean elbows off the break, but the Kyrgyzstani is also better about getting her back off of the fence at this weight class.
Aside from not being shy about incorporating clinch throws and tosses during her muay Thai days, Shevchenko has also developed a taste for level-changing takedowns in MMA (at least since the latter end of her championship run). Even when wrestling might not be the most advisable adjustment, Shevchenko seems to have it equipped as a go-to option whenever shes looking to get one back.
The potential problem, however, is that Shevchenkos taste for head-and-arm throws has cost her crucial positions in past title fights, ranging from her series with Amanda Nunes to Alexa Grasso. Against one of the most athletic back-takers within the womens division in Zhang, a single mistake could cost Shevchenko big.
Moreover, Shevchenko will also be tying up with a fighter who can hold a candle to her skills in the clinch (whether were talking about striking or wrestling).
As we saw in Zhangs first title-winning effort in Shenzhen, China, the former strawweight champ possesses the power to demolish durable opposition with hard knees and elbows within close quarters. The champions sanda background also comes in handy when hanging out in this space, showing the ability to hit slick trips and takedowns at the drop of a dime.
Since then, Zhang has upgraded her wrestling chops by working with talents like Henry Cejudo to the Hickman brothers (who operate out of Bang Tao Muay Thai). Now, it is not uncommon for Zhang to hit competent wrestling chains in open space, almost as if it were second nature.
Zhang has also shown some strides when it comes to her defensive instincts, demonstrating everything from strong sprawls to a more urgent scrambling game from bottom. Since shifting her training camp a few years back, Zhang has also been working on her jiu-jitsu with Josh Hinger, who, I’m sure, has Magnum well prepared for Saturday.
The oddsmakers and the public are slightly favoring the sitting champion, listing Shevchenko -122 and Zhang +100 via FanDuel.
Regardless of whether or not you agree with who is favored, I think that we can all agree that the betting spread shouldnt be too wide with the variables at play.
Although the “size matters”” argument is a little more straightforward when it comes to the womens divisions, theres no denying the speed, skills and athleticism that Zhang brings to the table. Furthermore, Zhangs team has also proven to be increasingly effective game planners who give the former strawweight champ tactics that she can put into action in her fights.
However, despite any hopes or speculations I may have as far as Zhangs potential to surprise Shevchenko in certain areas of the game, I suspect that all roads in this fight lead to the clinch.
A crucial junction point for these two fighters stylistically, the winner of the early clinch battles will likely give way to the eventual winner of the fight. And even though Zhang shows that chains and trips that have had some success on Shevchenko before, Im not sure shell be able to reliably get to or enforce her game.
Aside from the size being a real factor in the equation, Zhang doesnt always have the cleanest entries or starts in these sorts of exchanges, which could be enough for Shevchenko to either beat her to the proverbial punch or outright muscle her down (which smaller fighters like Yan Xiaonan and Rose Namajunas have been able to do in the past).
Even Tatiana Suarez, who, granted, fell apart in Round 2 after splitting her knee open, was able to find some early success by continuing to positionally grapple Zhang from topside after taking her down off a bad entry. In fact, I noticed that Zhangs striking was a bit pared down and missing her usual organic flow in open-stance affairs, which could be what led her to somewhat rushed and overthrown striking entries in her last outing opposite a dedicated southpaw.
Unless Shevchenko repeats her own history by making a bone-headed move to give away the fight, I suspect that her countering style and keen distance management will be problematic for the inherent aggression of Zhang. It all comes down to who can consistently win clinch stanzas, but Ill officially side with Shevchenko to treat Zhang like the past strawweight champions who came up to challenge her by plying her size and strength early via takedowns and counters.
These are two of my favorite female fighters, so its going to suck for me to have to see someone lose here.
Prediction: Shevchenko by decision
As the co-main event, Shevchenko and Weili are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 11:45 p.m. ET. The fight airs on pay-per-view via ESPN+.
This article originally appeared on MMA Junkie: Valentina Shevchenko vs. Zhang Weili pick, odds, time: UFC 322