Four sweeps. Little drama. Every series in the first round of the 2024 WNBA playoffs was over in two games.
But as the semifinals extend to a best-of-five format, all four remaining teams are legitimate title contenders.
The New York Liberty and Connecticut Sun are going for their first championships in franchise history. The Las Vegas Aces are hoping to be just the second team to win three in a row. And the Minnesota Lynx are trying to become the first franchise to win five.
The Liberty had the best regular-season record in the league, but this race for a ring doesn’t appear to have a clear-cut favorite. The semifinal matchups are as intriguing as they are close. New York vs. Las Vegas, a rematch of the 2023 WNBA Finals, features the two highest-scoring teams in the league, while Connecticut and Minnesota ranked 1-2 in points allowed.
The past five MVPs are still playing, as are four of the top five vote-getters this year: unanimous winner A’ja Wilson, Napheesa Collier, Breanna Stewart and Alyssa Thomas.
Each series begins Sunday. Here is what each team needs to do to win the championship, and the flaw that could derail their title hopes.
Why the Liberty can win the title: If Breanna Stewart is the best player on the court for the majority of New York’s games, there will be a parade down the Canyon of Heroes on Broadway. The two-time league MVP also has plenty of help. There’s another former MVP in Jonquel Jones. Another Olympic gold medalist in Sabrina Ionescu. One of the WNBA’s all-time great point guards in Courtney Vandersloot. Top-seeded New York is probably the deepest team in the league. Betnijah Laney-Hamilton can get 20 points on any given night. Leonie Fiebich just scored 21 points in her playoff debut.
But Stewart is the one player on the Liberty who can determine their fate. She doesn’t necessarily have to be the most outstanding player in the next two series for the Liberty to win the title, but if she is, that’s the clincher. It would mean Stewart has outplayed A’ja Wilson and either Napheesa Collier or Alyssa Thomas. The Aces, Lynx and Sun can’t win without their best being the best, and Stewart is capable of being better than all of them.
What fatal flaw could cost New York the championship? What makes the Liberty so difficult to beat is that they don’t have a substantial weakness. Statistically speaking, New York is at least competent in every significant category — and outstanding in most. But the Liberty do have lapses — stretches within games or even a full 40 minutes — when the ball doesn’t move enough or when they aren’t engaged defensively. Those at least partially explain losses such as the one to the Mercury in mid-June (offense) or a late-August head-scratcher to the Sparks (defense).
These offensive lapses often coincide with poor shooting nights by Ionescu. In New York’s eight losses, Ionescu shot 30.7% from the field. There have also been games when Jones gets neglected on offense. New York is always better when its 6-foot-6 forward is involved.
Why the Lynx can win the title: No other team in the league moves the ball, shares the ball and gets as many open looks as Minnesota. The offense has been coached brilliantly and has the right mix of talent to make it all work. The Lynx’s chemistry has been lauded all year as the reason a team picked anywhere from sixth to ninth in the preseason won three-quarters of its games, was the best team in the WNBA after the Olympic break and is the No. 2 seed in the playoffs.
The Lynx finished first in the league in assists and assisted shot rate. Collier is thriving in Cheryl Reeve’s system and is having the best season of her career. If the Lynx lean into Collier’s brilliance in the high and low post, and Kayla McBride, Bridget Carleton and Alanna Smith shoot from deep the way they have all season — Minnesota is the league leader in 3-point shooting percentage — the Lynx could clinch their fifth title, which would break a tie with the Houston Comets and Seattle Storm for the most in WNBA history.
What fatal flaw could cost Minnesota the championship? Of the four teams remaining, the Lynx are the least physical. By itself that doesn’t mean much, especially the way Minnesota passes and shoots. But if those shots aren’t falling, what is Minnesota’s Plan B? The Lynx ranked in the bottom half of the league in nearly every rebounding category. Only the Mystics got to the foul line with less frequency than the Lynx. Minnesota won’t win with second-chance points or free throws. The mid-August acquisition of Myisha Hines-Allen for the regular season’s stretch run helps, but the Lynx still need to play in space and not a rugby scrum.
Why the Sun can win the title: By contrast, physical is exactly how third-seeded Connecticut would like to play. Thomas and Brionna Jones thrive with contact. Marina Mabrey and DiJonai Carrington are “in your face”-type players. Connecticut played at the slowest pace in the league and allowed the fewest points per game. The clash of styles with Minnesota makes their semifinal matchup that much more interesting.
Thomas, as always, is the key. The offense runs through her and she must put up big numbers for Connecticut to beat the league’s best teams. But Mabrey is the ultimate X factor. Acquired in a trade right before the All-Star break, she provides 3-point shooting the Sun didn’t have previously. Mabrey made 42.4% of her 3-point attempts in 16 regular-season games with the Sun following her trade from Chicago, then averaged a team-best 22 points per game in the first-round playoff win over Indiana.
What fatal flaw could cost Connecticut the championship? Even with Mabrey, this isn’t a good 3-point shooting team. Carrington shoots 25.0% from deep. DeWanna Bonner is at 29.4%. The Sun were 11th in 3-point rate — and that gets even worse if point guard Tyasha Harris can’t go. She suffered an ankle injury in Game 1 against the Fever and missed Game 2. Harris, a 39.5% 3-point shooter who averages 10.5 PPG, is the kind of defender Connecticut needs against players such as Minnesota’s Courtney Williams or in a potential Finals matchup with Ionescu or the Aces’ Jackie Young. Harris ranked 16th in the league in defensive win shares. Without her, Mabrey goes from spark plug off the bench to starting — and having to handle the ball much more.
Why the Aces can win the title: If Chelsea Gray is Chelsea Gray. Becky Hammon knows she is going to get big-time production from Wilson every game. Perhaps no player in league history has been as steadily brilliant as Wilson. Kelsey Plum and Young have been able to step up at big moments this year, even if they haven’t been quite as consistent as the past two seasons.
But the best version of Gray was mostly missing this season. The foot injury she suffered in last year’s Finals lingered into the beginning of the season. Gray didn’t make her debut until June 19, and showed only glimpses of her “point gawd” self for most of the second half of the regular season as progress came slowly. Then Gray emerged in the first-round series vs. Seattle. She made some big shots and looked completely back with 16 assists in two games. She moved well and played 32 minutes in both games (Gray had played at least that many minutes in only one other game this season). The fourth-seeded Aces now have their big four back, the core that has delivered back-to-back WNBA titles.
What fatal flaw could cost Las Vegas the championship? The Aces gave up 98 points to a Phoenix Mercury team without Brittney Griner in the third game of the season. Ever since, Hammon has seemed to be on her team about its defense on a daily basis. Las Vegas was able to get stops more consistently starting in late August and early September, when it rattled off nine wins in their final 10 regular-season games. The Aces also have given up only 0.6 points per game more this year than last. The defense just hasn’t been as reliable. Wilson, who won WNBA Defensive Player of the Year in 2022 and 2023, had an even better statistical season this year, with career highs in blocks and steals, and had the third-highest defensive rating in the league. Kiah Stokes was the only other Las Vegas player to finish in the top 50.