You can watch Thursday Night Football: Steelers vs. Browns at 8:20 p.m. ET/5:20 p.m. PT on Amazon Prime Video.
We’re gonna get another dose of divisional action tonight, as the 8-2 Pittsburgh Steelers travel to Ohio to take on the 2-8 Cleveland Browns. Now, the last few divisional matchups we’ve had on TNF have been pretty good for fantasy football purposes, so we have to hope this one doesn’t turn into your typical AFC North (or rather, Steelers-specific) rock fight, where only the kickers and punters seem to have a day (looking at you, Chris Boswell).
Let’s go to the tale of the tape.
As alluded to in the intro, the Steelers thrive in games that feature tough running, even tougher defense and a final score that looks more like a hockey game than a football one (okay fine, I’m exaggerating, but when you’re invested in fantasy prospects, the Steelers aren’t the best draw for your players). This style of play isn’t exactly conducive to opposing receivers. Let’s just look at the results of some high-profile pass-catchers facing Pittsburgh this season:
Outside of the Joe Flacco mid-game eruption, the Steelers have, for the most part, kept opposing receivers in check, especially as the names and resumes have gotten brighter.
But let’s look at things from the context of this game specifically. The Steelers should defeat the Browns handily, as the better team. But we cannot ignore a major factor: Jameis Winston.
Winston has been everything fantasy managers has dreamed of: his usual gunslinger self, lifting the ceilings of every pass-catcher on the Browns, no matter the matchup or situation. The Browns have also been incredibly pass-heavy since Winston took over; whether that’s because they know the pass game gives them the best chance to win or because they realize Nick Chubb will not return to form this season remains to be seen. Nonetheless, Winston’s chuck-it nature has revitalized David Njoku, Cedric Tillman, Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore. All of Njoku, Moore and Jeudy had great games last week even though the Browns eventually fell, 35-14.
Sure, the Saints’ injury-battered defense pales in comparison to the Steelers’, but with Cleveland adopting a pass-first (and then when the pass fails, pass again) mindset, these pass-catchers should all get their chances in this game.
I am most worried about Tillman, who will likely get targets but will also be followed around by Joey Porter Jr.. So, while I expect more catches than last week, Tillman’s ceiling might be capped. Thankfully, Winston is no stranger to spreading the ball around. I’m starting all of Tillman, Njoku and Jeudy, and I’m considering Moore in deep leagues.
Now let’s just hope the weather permits the pass it’s looking like rain during the game.
It seems like ganging up on Najee Harris has been more common than singing his praises. He’s too slow, he has no electricity in his runs, he has to share the load with Jaylen Warren, he doesn’t catch passes.
Blah, blah, blah. All Harris has done since Week 6 is produce.
Even last week, when he was held under 70 rushing yards, Harris still collected 93 total yards thanks to four catches. As Matt Harmon has said this season, Russell Wilson has been a “touchdown or checkdown” quarterback (last week both Harris and Warren caught four passes apiece) in the context of the Steelers’ run-heavy, play-action-pass offense.
Basically, even in tough matchups, Harris has a safe floor and solid ceiling. He comes into this game riding a streak of a touchdown or 90 total yards in five straight games. Expect the streak to continue tonight.
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Mike Williams joined the Steelers and immediately caught one pass for a deep touchdown. Basically, his bread-and-butter. And it’s a skill that works well with Russell Wilson’s deep-ball strengths.
Of course, in his second game as a Steeler, Williams didn’t receive a single target, putting up a big fat zero for deep-leaguers who took a chance on the big-play receiver in a plus matchup.
Williams is rostered in just 16% of leagues, down 4% from last week, which is understandable. But I’d keep him stashed on the bench if you can it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Williams settles into the MVS role, that 3-120-1 type of role. That likely wouldn’t change the outlooks of George Pickens or Harris.
Williams was fighting a losing battle in a crowded Jets’ offensive-weapon room. But there’s space for him to thrive on this Steelers team, with the way it’s constructed and the way the offense likes to play. I’m remaining cautiously optimistic about him addition; if he can produce a big play or two in a plus matchup tonight, I’m adding him off the waiver wire.
You’re probably reading the above header and thinking one of two things: 1) “Who cares about a non-top-10 TE?” or 2) “I’m not benching a starting tight end, not when Kyle Pitts, Dalton Kincaid, Evan Engram and Taysom Hill are on bye.”
And I understand both sentiments. It’s not fun for me, either. But the same way you’re probably thinking one of those two things, you also need to understand two more things. 1) Pat Freiermuth (54% rostered) has seemingly been phased out of the Steelers offense save for the occasional short pass down the middle or scramble-drill red zone target he hasn’t surpassed the three-target mark in any of his last six games, and 2) the Browns have utterly silenced opposing tight ends this season.
Don’t let the green on your fantasy app fool you if you have a better option at TE this week (maybe you landed Will Dissly or Jonnu Smith or Zach Ertz or want to go deep with Ja’Tavion Sanders), fire ’em up.