The betting markets have tabbed Scottie Scheffler as the favorite to lift his first claret jug this Sunday at Royal Troon. It’s a familiar position for Scheffler, a six-time winner this year who has entered every major championship as the favorite.
But should he really be the favorite entering this Open Championship?
Those who say yes will point to the numbers, including the fact that Scheffler leads the PGA Tour in strokes gained approach and greens in regulation while ranking second in total driving and proximity to the hole all solid indicators for success at this week’s stop on the Open rota.
But those who side with the nos will argue that it’s not always simply what the numbers say. We haven’t seen Scheffler since the Travelers Championship (he won that one, too, by the way) and that last time we saw him at a major he was tying for 41st at Pinehurst No. 2 and he was somewhat outspoken about not liking the luck element of the Donald Ross gem; that doesn’t go away at Troon, where pot bunkers, gorse and other fun stuff lurk, and where we could see some weather (30-35 mph gusts are already forecasted for Thursday’s opening round).
And speaking of the U.S. Open, Rory McIlroy is coming off yet another heartbreaker, though he bounced back quickly with a T-4 at the Genesis Scottish Open, and McIlroy’s driving ability is always going to be an advantage at a course like Troon, where guys such as Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland and Ludvig Åberg all set up well and have at least some decent momentum.
A couple bits of history that do go in Scheffler’s favor: Royal Troon’s list of champions (six of the past seven winners here have been American) and low-scoring propensity (each of its last four championships have produced a winning score of double-digits under par, including Henrik Stenson’s 20-under performance in 2016; Scheffler leads the Tour in birdie average by over a half-birdie per round).
So, with all that said, is Scheffler my favorite this week?
Let’s find out but only after I rank every players in the 158-man field, plus provide analysis on the top 50 of this ranking:
158. Todd Hamilton157. John Daly156. Jack McDonald155. Elvis Smylie154. Denwit Boriboonsub153. Darren Clarke152. Jasper Stubbs (a)151. Charlie Lindh150. Aguri Iwasaki149. Altin van der Merwe (a)148. Justin Leonard147. Sam Hutsby146. Jaime Montojo (a)145. Jeung-Hun Wang144. Luis Masaveu (a)143. Liam Nolan (a)142. Darren Fichardt141. Alex Cejka
140. Matthew Dodd-Berry (a)139. Michael Hendry138. Masahiro Kawamura137. Kazuma Kobori136. Ryosuke Kinoshita135. Gun-Taek Koh134. Phil Mickelson133. Sam Horsfield132. Padraig Harrington131. Andy Ogletree
130. Tommy Morrison (a)129. Mason Andersen128. Marcel Siem127. Minkyu Kim126. Vincent Norrman125. Daniel Hillier124. Dominic Clemons (a)123. Ernie Els122. Jacob Skov Olesen (a)121. Jorge Campillo
120. Alexander Bjork119. Daniel Brown118. Santiago de la Fuente (a)117. Ryan Van Velzen116. Henrik Stenson115. Tiger Woods114. Younghan Song113. Nacho Elvira112. Gary Woodland111. Stewart Cink
110. Dan Bradbury109. Matthew Southgate108. Angel Hidalgo107. John Catlin106. Sean Crocker105. Yannik Paul104. Thorbjorn Olesen103. Jesper Svensson102. Matt Wallace101. Yuto Katsuragawa
100. Rikuya Hoshino99. Joost Luiten98. Nick Taylor97. Joe Dean96. Shubhankar Sharma95. Francesco Molinari94. Calum Scott (a)93. Zach Johnson92. Romain Langasque91. Rickie Fowler
90. Alex Noren89. Mackenzie Hughes88. Richard Mansell87. Brendon Todd86. Thriston Lawrence85. Ben Griffin84. C.T. Pan83. Adam Schenk82. Eric Cole81. Sami Valimaki
80. Chris Kirk79. Abraham Ancer78. Justin Rose77. Guido Migliozzi76. Denny McCarthy75. Dustin Johnson74. Ryo Hisatsune73. Ryan Fox72. Gordon Sargent (a)71. David Puig
70. Louis Oosthuizen69. Matteo Manassero68. Keita Nakajima67. Nicolai Hojgaard66. Sebastian Soderberg65. Emiliano Grillo64. Taylor Moore63. Matthew Jordan62. Ewen Ferguson61. Adrian Meronk
60. Adam Hadwin59. Rasmus Hojgaard58. Keegan Bradley57. J.T. Poston56. Jordan Smith55. Max Homa54. Christiaan Bezuidenhout53. Stephan Jaeger52. Tom Hoge51. Laurie Canter
50. Billy Horschel49. Harris English48. Jason Day47. Maverick McNealy46. Austin Eckroat45. Matthieu Pavon44. Cameron Smith43. Lucas Glover42. Will Zalatoris41. Dean Burmester
Horschel missed the Scottish cut, his first MC since Valero, as his ball-striking has started to fade slightly. But hes had a bit of success on links (T-21 at St. Andrews) and is one of the more accurate drivers on Tour. No top-10s since Genesis and not a great Open track record, but English is nearly top 20 in total driving and closed in 65 to finish T-34 in Scotland. Day has been so-so of late, mostly because of approach play, though T-2 last year at Royal Liverpool and its always nice to drive and putt it well at these Opens. McNealys Deere missed cut halted some good momentum that included a T-7 in Canada. But hes top 40 in total driving, hits it low off the tee and is a good lag putter. Maybe one of those guys who should be ranked higher, Eckroat is top 20 in total driving and strokes gained approach. He did miss the Scottish cut in his first taste of links(ish) as a pro. Yes, Pavon was just fifth at the U.S. Open, but he also missed the Scottish cut and has been so up and down of late. Smith ranked this low?! The 2021 Open champ is last among the LIV guys here in total driving. But perhaps his T-6 at Valderrama is a sign this ranking is dead wrong. Glover hasnt played an Open in a few years, though he was T-20 at Portrush. He has been masterful at hitting his irons close (third in proximity) and can find fairways with the best of them. Zalatoris hasnt played since withdrawing from Detroit because of his back. He returned at the Scottish and missed the cut, and he didnt drive it well at all. But that could be rust. This ranking seems about right considering the question marks. Burmester cooled off after a strong first round at Valderrama. If he can find fairways, hell be solid here.
40. Robert MacIntyre39. Matt Fitzpatrick38. Russell Henley37. Kurt Kitayama36. Sepp Straka35. Victor Perez34. Patrick Cantlay33. Byeong Hun An32. Tom McKibbin31. Sam Burns
The Scottish champ, MacIntyre vowed to spend the early week in celebration. When he makes it to the first tee, hes still barely in the top 100 in total driving, though he was top 10 in strokes off the tee and approach last time out. Fitzpatrick again lost strokes off the tee and on approach in Scotland, though hes still going to find a ton of fairways and hes not missed an Open cut in his last four tries. The Open struggles have got to end at some point for Henley, who has five MCs in nine career starts. Throw out a bad putting week at Travelers and Henley has six finishes of T-27 or better in seven events, including a dazzling T-7 at Pinehurst. T-60 last year was Kitayamas best Open finish, though Im going to probably lean a little more than most on the fact that he hasnt lost strokes off the tee since Memphis last year. Straka exited the Scottish early, though he should get back to hitting it on a line and has some confidence still with a T-2 last year at Royal Liverpool. Perez disappointed at the U.S. Open after a third in Canada and T-12 at Memorial, but the T-10 at the Scottish was promising. Driver hasnt been the issue, and hes fifth on Tour in three-putt avoidance from outside 25 feet. Cantlay is coming off a T-5 at Travelers and T-3 at the U.S. Open, and hes been solid at recent Opens, though Im still not totally sold the ball-striking will stand up enough to contend. On the flip side, hes probably a lock for a top 35, as hes done that in eight of his last nine majors. An backed up Friday to miss the Scottish cut, but I like his length and ability to drive it well. Plus, hes been T-32 or better in three straight Opens. I almost put McKibbin, the 21-year-old from Holywood higher, as hes fourth on the DPWT in strokes gained off the tee, nearly top 10 in driving accuracy and top 30 in strokes gained approach. He was T-41 in his major debut at last months U.S. Open. Loved the T-9 at Pinehurst out of Burns, though despite his elite driving, hes got to prove it first across the pond (nothing better than T-42 at an Open).
30. Hideki Matsuyama29. Aaron Rai28. Brian Harman27. Jordan Spieth26. Joaquin Niemann25. Adam Scott24. Tom Kim23. Sahith Theegala22. Justin Thomas21. Brooks Koepka
A Scottish MC ended Matsuyamas nice run (T-8 at Memorial, sixth at U.S. Open, T-23 at Travelers), and though its just one event, keep in mind hes well outside the top 100 in total driving. Rai was among the last men in thanks to his T-4 at the Scottish, and hes got the chops to outperform this ranking. Five straight top-20s and some stellar ball-striking. The reigning Champion Golfer of the Year, Harman, enters his title defense having finished T-26 or better in six of his last eight starts, including a T-21 at the Scottish. Im worried about Spieths wrist, though for as unpredictable as he is, he is sixth in total driving and loves this championship having not finished worse than T-23 in his past five appearances. Third among the LIV guys in total driving, Niemann was T-6 at LIV Andalucia to push his top-10 total to double digits this year. Just wish his Open record was better (best finish: T-53). Not only has Scott made 10 of 11 cuts, but he was second at the Scottish and gained over four shots off the tee. Runner-up at Travelers and T-15 at Scottish bolster a strong ball-striker in Kim, who also was T-2 last year at Royal Liverpool. Theegala has not yet found his groove at The Open, but he has made seven of his last eight major cuts and loved what I saw during his T-4 at Scottish, especially with the putter. Thomas should absolutely have more than just a T-11 to his Open resume, but he doesnt. A T-62 at the Scottish doesnt help matters, either. That said, hes still eighth in strokes gained approach and is showing flashes of how he drove it to start the year. Something is off with Koepka right now. He was T-27 on LIV on Sunday and hasnt posted a major top-25 this year. He also has gone MC, T-64 in his last two Opens. One saving grace, though, is hes still driving it well.
20. Wyndham Clark19. Min Woo Lee18. Sungjae Im17. Akshay Bhatia16. Davis Thompson15. Si Woo Kim14. Tyrrell Hatton13. Jon Rahm12. Bryson DeChambeau11. Tommy Fleetwood
Clark will be overlooked based on his major performance this year (T-56 at U.S. Open followed MCs at Masters, PGA), but hes still top 10 strokes gained off the tee, was T-33 at last years Open and shot 62 Sunday to finish T-10 in Scotland. Sunday was ugly (75), but I still believe in Min Woo and his stinger. Hes third in total driving and leads the Tour in carry distance, which either means hes carrying bunkers downwind or able to still muscle a driving iron out there under the gusts. Im is rolling with a T-4 in Scotland following four showings of T-12 or better in a five-start stretch. Driving it well. T-20 at last years Open his only made cut in last six major starts. Hes back Bhatia has been trending hard since the Memorial, most recently sharing second in Detroit. He also was T-16 at Pinehurst for his first major top-20. Will be his first Open, but top 25 in total driving and stroke gained approach will help mitigate that inexperience. Thompson was T-46 at the Scottish after winning the Deere, though you have got to love the bookend 65s. Driver is starting to get really good, and he led Scottish field in strokes gained around the green. Keep riding the wave. Si Woo, my majors go-to, has posted T-32 or better in 10 of his last 12 starts. Top 25 in strokes gained off the tee, top 15 on approach, and he was T-15 at St. Andrews two years ago. Seven times in his past 10 major starts has Hatton finished T-27 or better. He ended up one shot out of a playoff Sunday at Valderrama, too. The foot thing seems corrected, though Rahm managed just a T-10 at LIV Andalucia. Theres mounting pressure on Rahm to get back on the major saddle, too. Good thing is hes still elite off the tee; he just needs to get his swagger back in these major tournaments. For as great as DeChambeau has been, this hasnt been his best event. In six starts, hes got a T-8 at St. Andrews and nothing else inside the top 30. Hell still easily flirt with a top-10 because hes clearly at the top of his game right now. I thought it would be last week, though Fleetwood cooled off a bit to finish T-34 at the Scottish. That snapped his streak of T-26 or better at six starts. Top 10 in total driving; I like him to start a new streak here.
10. Cameron Young9. Corey Conners8. Shane Lowry7. Tony Finau6. Xander Schauffele5. Ludvig Aberg4. Viktor Hovland3. Scottie Scheffler2. Collin Morikawa1. Rory McIlroy
Young followed his runner-up at St. Andrews with a T-8 at Royal Liverpool. Top 20 in total driving, so its not all just distance, and hes trending (T-9 at Travelers, T-6 at Rocket Mortgage). Last year at Royal Liverpool, Conners lost about a half-stroke per round on approach; hes not been negative since. Considering hes third in strokes gained approach entering this week and his T-10 at the Scottish was his third top-10 in his last five starts Conners could very well notch his first career Open top-10. Weve not seen Lowry since the Travelers (T-9), he missed the cut in his last Open, but its about time for the 2019 Open champ to return to his form in this championship (he was T-12 two years ago at St. Andrews as well). Hes top 12 in total driving and top 10 in strokes gained approach. The perfect top-10 sleeper in the mold of Russ Henley at Pinehurst (T-7) or Alex Noren at Valhalla (T-12; just missed). Finaus missed cut last year at Royal Liverpool killed some nice Open momentum (T-9, third, T-15, T-28), but hes fourth in strokes gained approach and has turned in three straight positive putting weeks (all top-8 finishes, too). The driver has been iffy, though if Big Tone is rolling in putts, watch out. Schauffele is the Tours leader in three-putt avoidance outside of 25 feet. Add that to his ball-striking ability and the fact that he hasnt finished outside the top 25 since Pebble and Schauffele probably should be top 3 here. But he didnt drive it great at the Scottish, and his best Open finish since his T-2 at Carnoustie is T-15. The closing 73 for Åberg at the Scottish adds to some disappointing final rounds for the young Swede of late, none more crushing than his 73 Sunday at Pinehurst. That trend is a bit concerning, as is the negative strokes gained off the tee in both weekend rounds at the Renaissance Club, but trust the body of work (seven top-10s; top 5 in total driving and ball-striking). Hovland may have just one top-10 this year (third at PGA), but hes been flushing it lately and hes by far the best lag putter of the elite players. A strong Open record (T-13 or better in three starts) adds to confidence. Its hard not to put Scheffler at No. 1, a position hes been in for these rankings for each of the years first three majors. Hes the best tee-to-green player in the world by far and hes been T-23 or better in three career Open starts, but he also hasnt played since winning the Travelers, and perhaps the luck factor of this championship (much like Pinehurst and its native areas) will mess with the usually impenetrable Scheffler again. Morikawa lost strokes approach Sunday at Scottish, just the third time thats happened in a round since the start of the PGA. Hes been ultra-consistent (four top-4s in last six starts and no finishes outside top 25 since before the Masters) and hes going to find fairways, so if the iron play continues trending upward like it has been, a second Claret Jug is in the cards. McIlroys tie for fourth at Scottish proves his U.S. Open heartbreak is in the rearview, so why not pick the Tours leader in total driving who ranks only behind Spieth in adjusted strokes gained at The Open among players in the field with more than 12 career rounds played.