Week 1 of the fantasy football season is more about player usage than schemes or game plans. Sure, the coaching matters, and so do the individual matchups. But when we set our lineups for this week, we want to base it on the volume and scoring opportunities for the players we just drafted, right?
Yes, Week 1 numbers aren’t necessarily a projection of a player’s value for the remainder of the season. We know that. But they do give us a stronger sense of player deployment and situational roles, which is information we need to make lineup decisions moving forward. And when I look at this week’s slate of games, I have a lot of questions for the 2025 season.
We can talk backfield rotations here, a quarterback’s projected upside in a new system or the rookies in position to produce early. Let’s start in Chicago with quarterback Caleb Williams, new head coach Ben Johnson and an offense that has the pieces to potentially produce multiple fantasy starters.
I don’t expect the Week 1 matchup versus the Minnesota Vikings defense to be a true indicator of what this offense will be under Johnson this season. Remember, Minnesota led the NFL with a blitz rate of 38.4% last season, and coordinator Brian Flores is excellent at creating post-snap chaos with his fronts and pressures. He will speed up the internal clock for Williams, making his first start in a new system.
Williams, whom I see as a fringe QB1 in 12-team leagues, averaged 15.0 PPG as a rookie while showing flashes of his playmaking traits. Now you add Johnson’s play calling and coaching to the mix, plus upgrades on the offensive front.
So, can Johnson bring a stronger sense of calm to Williams’ game as a pocket thrower? Well, he did exactly that with Jared Goff in Detroit. And it’s more than just the quarterback, as the Bears have fantasy upside on this roster.
Running back D’Andre Swift posted 12.2 PPG last season and will show off his perimeter speed and pass-catching ability in Johnson’s offense. Rookie tight end Colston Loveland has the route-running skills to get into the TE1 mix this season — if his usage remains consistent. Rome Odunze? Don’t be surprised if he ends up passing DJ Moore as the top target for Williams. And let’s not forget about rookie wide receiver Luther Burden III (one of my top late-round fliers). Catch-and-run juice — with motion/movement ability — in Johnson’s scheme.
This Bears offense has the potential to produce multiple fantasy starters and maybe a league winner, if the scheme hits. But it might not happen immediately. Have patience here, starting on Monday night in Soldier Field.
Henderson was a preseason star. The rookie made big plays, showing the ability to get north/south with the ball in a hurry. Plus, Henderson brings receiving traits to the Patriots offense as a target for quarterback Drake Maye, so he will be a dual threat in Josh McDaniels’ offense. Because of this, Henderson’s ADP jumped in August, pushing him into the RB2 mix.
However, Rhamondre Stevenson will have a role in this offense, too. Stevenson, who missed the preseason with an injury, is expected to play in Week 1 versus the Las Vegas Raiders, and we know what he brings to the run game. At 6 feet, 227 pounds, Stevenson is a downhill hammer who can find the end zone on goal-line carries. From 2022-24, Stevenson scored on 9 of 17 carries inside the 3-yard line.
So, while Henderson flew up draft boards in August (including mine), Stevenson’s presence looms, and we have to see how this backfield rotation shakes out based on volume and game situation.
I’m all-in on Jeudy’s ability to get open in isolation matchups, and he plays in a heavily schemed pass game under Browns coach Kevin Stefanski. Think play-action concepts that create open grass for Jeudy to catch and run. Now he’s paired with Flacco, a veteran quarterback who is essentially playing with house money at this stage of his career. Flacco isn’t shy about cutting it loose, and I believe that creates a sense of upside for Jeudy to start this season.
With the anticipated volume for Jeudy in Week 1 against Cincinnati, I have him ranked as a lower-tier WR2. And Jeudy could stay in that range moving forward, as long as Flacco is on the field. But if Flacco misses time due to injury, or if the team simply turns the ball over to a rookie (Dillon Gabriel or Shedeur Sanders), Jeudy’s value would drop, making him a trade-away candidate. I don’t see Flacco playing 17 games in 2025, so prepare accordingly.
With Mixon starting the season on IR due to an ankle injury and no real timetable for his return, the Houston backfield is a mystery heading into Sunday’s game against the Rams.
Sure, it’s easy to say the Texans will go pass heavy with C.J. Stroud. But let’s remember that new offensive coordinator Nick Caley was with Sean McVay in Los Angeles, where the run game is a foundational piece of the system. So Houston needs to find an answer.
The Texans signed veteran Nick Chubb this offseason, but I didn’t see the same explosive running style on his tape last season in Cleveland as what he used to show before sustaining another knee injury. Dameon Pierce had only 40 carries last season but did show some flashes as a rookie in 2023, averaging 8.0 PPG in seven games as a starter. And then there’s rookie Woody Marks out of USC. I really liked his college tape. He’s an elusive runner with third-down ability.
Maybe the eventual lead back for the Texans isn’t even on the roster yet. It could be a player signed off another team’s practice squad or part of a trade as the season gets moving. Wait and see. That’s my approach to the running back position in Houston.
Johnson’s ADP started to slide in August, and I get it. The preseason tape on the rookie out of Iowa didn’t really pop, and Jaylen Warren, who was just rewarded with a contract extension, is a proven pro.
Ideally, in Arthur Smith’s offense, Johnson would be the early-down and goal-line runner, with Warren a change-of-pace back who contributes to the passing game. Warren has 127 receptions over his first three pro seasons, and he gives the Steelers more juice on the edges as a runner.
Yes, Johnson does fit the outside zone scheme in Pittsburgh. We saw that on his college tape in Iowa City. Plus, Johnson can get rolling in the open field, as his 21 carries of 20 or more yards ranked second in the country behind only Ashton Jeanty.
At this point, however, you drafted Johnson as a bench player, while Warren can be started in Week 1 as a flex in 12-team leagues. We just don’t know what role Johnson will have as a pro yet. And that’s OK. Johnson could emerge as a fantasy starter if the volume/production matches up. Let’s see how he is utilized in the game plan this week against the Jets.
Darnold averaged 18.5 PPG in Minnesota last season, and he finished as QB9 in total scoring. Sure, Darnold played in Kevin O’Connell’s QB-friendly offense. He had Justin Jefferson as his top target, too.
Darnold’s decision-making late in the down can still be an issue, and he had three games last season with fewer than 10 points. But Darnold also completely fell off the fantasy radar when he signed with the Seahawks this offseason.
Do I like the system fit for Darnold in Seattle under new coordinator Klint Kubiak? Absolutely. It will utilize outside zone play-action with defined throws and shot plays. Cater to his mobility and arm strength. Darnold has a No. 1 receiver in Jaxon Smith-Njigba, a serviceable secondary option in Cooper Kupp, and I think rookie tight end Elijah Arroyo can emerge quickly. There’s some upside here.
While Sunday’s home game versus the 49ers isn’t the best matchup for Darnold, the system under Kubiak could push him into the streaming discussion this season.