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Lets get defensive, people. We are running out of ways to improve our fantasy rosters as we approach the money weeks, but tinkering with our team defense is always in play.
Generally speaking, fantasy managers tend to approach team defenses in one of two ways: We either draft-and-hold a highly-ranked D/ST, giving the position little in-season consideration, or we prefer to churn defenses throughout the year, streaming based on matchups.
The problem with the first method is that we are collectively awful at identifying great defenses during the preseason. This year, the consensus top-five were the Niners, Ravens, Jets, Browns and Cowboys. None of those D/STs are currently relevant in fantasy; none rank inside the overall top 10.
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The problem with streaming isnt the concept itself, but rather our execution. We often focus on not-quite the right things when we do it. We go looking for quality defenses facing losing teams. Its an approach that can certainly lead us to the right destination picking on Will Levis has been a winning move but theres a more reliable way to get where we wanna go.
Fantasy scoring at D/ST is almost entirely driven by splashy game-changing events turnovers, sacks, defensive touchdowns which are not actually the easiest things to predict. But we know those events are much more likely to occur when a quarterback is dropping back to pass. We dont get sacks and pick-sixes on hand-offs. Its no accident that Dallas, Cleveland and Las Vegas the three teams currently leading the NFL in pass attempts have allowed the seventh, second and fourth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses.
When streaming defenses, the simplest approach with the greatest upside is to purely target passing volume. We are 13 weeks into the season at this point, so we definitely know which teams are asking their QBs to drop back at the highest rates.
The leagues top defenses in reality are not guaranteed to be elite fantasy assets, by the way. Philadelphia is the NFLs top D in total yardage by a decent margin and they rank fourth in points-against, but they are only 10th in fantasy scoring. In our game, the Eagles have only delivered two double-digit point totals, which is nothing special.
By now, you might sense whats coming: We are about to hit you with a short list of defenses that have extremely favorable late-season fantasy schedules, three of which are real-life terrible. It would take a fair amount of courage to start, say, the Bengals in a must-win fantasy week. So if you want to lose honorably with Philly hey, go for it.
The Cards are actually a legit defense, so you can feel OK about this squad. Their schedule is particularly friendly over the next two weeks. Seattle and New England rank seventh and tenth respectively in pass attempts on the season and fifth and sixth in fantasy points allowed.
You hate this one, right? Of course you do. Cincinnatis defense is objectively bad. But this teams three upcoming opponents have been scandalously generous to opposing defenses in fantasy, and Denver is one of the leagues more pass-heavy teams. Its an incredible setup.
Yeah, um not sure Id actually pull the trigger on a Jaguars add. Feels like thats one or two steps beyond recklessness. Still, that schedule is nearly perfect in fantasy terms, including two matchups with Levis, the NFLs pick-sixiest QB.
Its the bookends we like here, not so much the Week 15-16 matchups, which accounts for a 47% spike in the unit’s rostered total with the Giants on deck but could see the unit mass dropped next week. Also, the Saints are like an AI-generated team, utterly detached from normalcy. We never know whats coming except we do know the Giants and Raiders are on the schedule, which is great news.