Week 10 reminded us of how important Week 1 is in Survivor.
As the biggest favorite in the seasons opening week, the Denver Broncos were the most popular selection. When they narrowly avoided defeat to the Titans, it was easy to say, Thankfully, we dont have to trust that team again.
Those who used the Broncos against the Jets or Giants were likely saying the same thing, but after another week of carnage, those who escaped with Denvers 10-7 win over the Raiders last Thursday got to sit back and watch a pair of big losses break more than a few hearts on Sunday.
For those who attempted to trust the Panthers in Week 10, it went about as well as you might expect. Whether youre out of Survivor because of that or before Week 10, there are still lessons to be learned. Theres a reason we make sure that our top pick is one of the best 18 teams in the league and going outside of that group, because of assumptions made about the opponent, rarely goes well.
Of course, no one would have kept the Bills out of the top-18, and Buffalo closed as the biggest favorite of the week. As our No. 1 option for Week 10, Josh Allen and Co. suffered through one of those games, where everything that could go wrong does, and somehow you end up soaked at the end of it. Well never be able to prove it, but backing a team after its biggest win of the season can be riskier than the point spread suggests.
I dont know how you did it, but youre still alive in Survivor.
For the first 10 weeks, options were abundant, and there were infinite potential paths. Contest sizes can vary, from the 18,718 entered in the Circa Survivor contest in Las Vegas, to the variety of entrants you compete against in a Yahoo Football Survival League, but no matter the size, the percentage of original entrants remaining is likely the same.
It doesnt sound as hard as it is, since Survivor just requires you to pick one winner every week, but there are still eight weeks left in the season and Circas Survivor contest is down to exactly 1,000 contestants, likely mirroring other pools where only around 5% of the entries remain.
Acknowledging that once every five weeks our top pick has gotten eliminated, and that a case could be made that our help is not needed to those whove made it on to Week 11, this content is only of assistance to those who have gotten this far. In order to be valuable from here on in, we need to figure out who you are, and how you got here.
While there are a handful of paths to survival, the following is the most-likely surviving route through 10 weeks:
Going forward, well make one selection based on this being the estimated path youve taken to get here and what youre giving up by using them, while also providing the estimated percentage of entrants that still have them available (thanks to Circas availability matrix).
How likely is a team to win and youll advance? The betting market provides the answer to that each week with the money line, which we can convert to an implied win probability (IWP).
*Weve also adjusted for the approximately 2.4% sportsbook hold
Its not as simple as picking the team most likely to win, because once you use that team, you cant use it again. What is simple is that if youre going to make it through the 18-week season, then you need to use 18 teams. That means, at some point, youll be trusting the 18th-best team in the NFL. Its an unnerving thought.
Heres a list of the betting markets current top 18 teams and an estimation of their value to the point spread:
Picking the most likely team to win each week, or the highest available team on this list above, means that youre giving up the opportunity to use them again later, and while every week is technically created equal, trusting a team in November is nerve-racking, but doing so at some point in December is real.
It seems like, with every minute that passes by in the days between Sunday nights opening line and kick-off on Thursday night, the Patriots get more likely to win, as the point spread and money line go up and up. New England opened at -10.5 and has moved to almost two full touchdowns.
The first 10 weeks have been spent balancing making picks using teams we think are trustworthy based on last season, and those that have just entered the cohort of fully reliable. With a win total of 8.5, the Patriots were expected to be around a .500 team before the season. They should clear that number on Thursday night.
Estimated Availability: 51.5%
It probably didnt take 10 games to make you a believer in New England, but once you finally believed in its quality, you still needed to find the perfect spot to deploy it.
Week 13 is an option, but its wild to think that with the lead the Patriots have built in the division, theres a possibility that Week 18s game against Miami might not matter.
The next-biggest favorite on the board this week is Baltimore on the road at Cleveland, with two other road teams as the only others favored by as much as a converted touchdown. Given those dicey propositions, you might as well burn the Patriots this week and take your chances with either the Ravens or Eagles during a tricky Week 13.
If the Patriots get stunned by the Jets on Thursday, youll just have to pack up the Survivor tools weve provided this season, and get ready for 2026, along with the 95% of entrants who have already felt the sting of elimination.
You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.