For several years now, having the No. 1 overall pick in fantasy basketball drafts of any format has meant that your team gets to have Nikola Jokic. It has pretty much been a slam dunk. That’s how good Denver’s do-everything big man has been.
While Jokic hasn’t slowed down, the emergence of Victor Wembanyama last season — and the prospects of his continued improvement in his second season — mean knowing who to choose with the No. 1 overall pick is no longer a no-brainer.
So who are our experts taking if they have the top pick in drafts this season? Here are Andre Snellings, Eric Moody, Eric Karabell, Steve Alexander and Jim McCormick with their insight.
Snellings: I am not drafting Joker No. 1 this season, despite his extremely worthy resume and outlook, because I am taking a chance on the alien. Wembanyama has a chance to put together a sophomore season for the ages. He has the potential to push toward the league lead in scoring and rebounding, and toward the league lead among centers in assists, steals and 3-pointers. He is flat going to lead the league in blocked shots, likely by a lot. In points-based leagues, I project Joker with a slightly higher fantasy points total than conservative estimates for Wemby, but it’s still close. Those same conservative estimates put Wemby on an island, alone in first place, in projected category-based league value. Overall, while Jokic has the higher floor than Wemby, with the top pick I’m taking a chance on the player with no ceiling.
McCormick: Selecting Jokic at No. 1 remains compelling due to his unmatched all-around production, but this season presents a unique opportunity to pivot to Wembanyama. In just his second year, Wembanyama boasts extraordinary potential as both a statistical force and a defensive anchor. He led the league in blocks and finished 21st in total steals among NBA players in just his first year — one he began as a teenager. Showcasing rare and elite defensive capabilities with averages that echo prime Hakeem Olajuwon, his shot-blocking prowess can redefine a team’s defensive metrics. Offensively, Wembanyama possesses a three-level scoring arsenal that could elevate him to new heights, making him a dual threat capable of exceeding Jokic’s traditional outputs. While Jokic offers consistency, Wembanyama’s blend of all-world defense and explosive offensive upside positions him as a thrilling and potentially transformative top pick this season.
Moody: If I have the first overall pick, I’m also passing on Jokic for Wembanyama in all formats. Jokic, at 29 years old, is still in his prime and averaged 26.4 PPG, 12.4 RPG, 9.0 APG, 1.4 SPG and 1.0 BPG in 34.6 MPG over 79 games last season. Wembanyama, at just 20, is just scratching the surface of his potential. The rookie averaged 21.4 PPG, 10.6 RPG, 4.0 APG, 3.6 BPG and 1.2 SPG in only 29.6 MPG. With more minutes and a full offseason under his belt, Wemby could surpass Jokic this year. I’m comfortable taking him at 1.01, and you should be too.
Karabell: Going with Jokic first overall certainly is the safe pick, as he is showing no signs of decreased performance in his near future. However, Wembanyama has all the upside. Look ahead, not back. Jokic remains in his awesome, efficient prime, but Wembanyama can reach enough of his immense upside in his sophomore campaign to sway me. After all, when Wemby’s minutes rise, so will all his key fantasy numbers. Why can’t he average 25 PPG and 12 RPG, on par with Jokic? While Jokic has a large advantage in assists, Wemby blocked nearly 200 more shots than Jokic last season, and he hit 45 more 3-pointers. Those numbers will only increase.
Alexander: This is one of the easiest questions I’ve had to answer as the new season approaches. First of all, I’m taking Wembanyama in every league where I get the No. 1 pick. And if I get the No. 2 pick? I’m taking Luka Doncic. But give me the third pick and I’ll happily grab the Joker. Wemby didn’t have many plays run for him last season and was a rookie, yet he still led many teams to a fantasy championship. His minutes, role and numbers are only going up from here, and he’s going to be nearly unfair in fantasy a year or two from now. Meanwhile, Luka’s out there racking up almost 34 points, nine rebounds, eight dimes, 1.5 steals and a whopping 4.1 3-pointers. Those numbers just jump off the page. And while Jokic is “Old Mr. Reliable” out there every night, Wemby and Luka do more to help fantasy teams, in my opinion. If I get a top 3 fantasy pick I’m going to be pretty happy, because I’ll know I’m coming away with Joker, Wemby or Luka. But if Wemby and Luka go No. 1 and 2 in front of me picking No. 3, I’m going to be a little disappointed.