It was a chalky September around the NFL. Favorites were the way to go.
Through the first four weeks of the NFL season, favorites are winning 73% of the time (46-17-1) according to Covers.com. And they’re covering most of the time too. Favorites are 35-28-1 against the spread (55.6%) with home favorites covering at a 56.8% clip. We’ll see if that shifts in October.
Here are the top five betting storylines of Week 5, with odds from BetMGM:
The quick answer is no, and the oddsmakers know it. Non-quarterbacks don’t win MVP anymore. But Nacua is off to an amazing start with the Los Angeles Rams. He has 42 catches for 503 yards, which puts him on pace to break the single-season record in both categories. Yet, 24 players have better MVP odds at BetMGM, including C.J. Stroud, Kyler Murray, Michael Penix Jr. and Derrick Henry. That’s a bit ridiculous. Nacua is 150-to-1 to win MVP. A receiver has never won MVP and it probably won’t happen as voters have made it a quarterback-only award. But if Nacua gets to 150 catches and 2,000 yards (his pace is an unbelievable 178.5 catches and 2,137.8 yards), there will be support for him to get MVP consideration. He might have to settle for NFL Offensive Player of the Year. He took over as the favorite in that category this week.
If you wanted to bet the Buffalo Bills to win the Super Bowl or the AFC, you’ve already lost a lot of value.
As the rest of the AFC, the Ravens in particular, struggled in September, the Bills had close to a perfect runout. They’re the only undefeated team left in the AFC. And their odds have dropped. The Bills are +170 to win the AFC and +375 to win the Super Bowl. They’re far ahead of the second favorite in each category. The Eagles are second in Super Bowl odds at +650 and the Chiefs are behind the Bills in the AFC odds at +450.
The Bills have famously never won a Super Bowl. This is as good of an opportunity as they’ll get.
There are two 4-0 teams in the NFL and three 0-4 teams. That’s straight up. Against the spread, there are no teams that haven’t covered at least once, or failed to cover in all four games.
Among the 4-0 straight up teams, the Eagles are 3-1 against the spread and the Bills are 2-2 according to Action Network’s standings. The 0-4 Jets are 2-2 against the spread, and the 0-4 Saints and Titans are both 1-3. Last week the 0-4 Saints covered against the 4-0 Bills, because the spread was more than 14 points. The Bills won by 12. It’s a reminder that the spread is the great equalizer in NFL betting.
The Minnesota Vikings and Cleveland Browns have a similar profile. They have great defenses and not much offense. And as a result, that game from London on early Sunday has by far the lowest total of the NFL season.
The over/under is just 36.5 points. That’s just the third game with a total under 40 this season. The others were Steelers-Jets in Week 1 (a total of 38, and the game went way over) and Titans-Texans in Week 4 (total of 39.5, it went under). In addition, Vikings-Browns is the lowest total ever for an international NFL game, via Evan Abrams of Action Network.
So if you’re up early Sunday, don’t expect a lot of scoring.
It has been a relatively easy year in survival pools, with few big favorites losing straight up through four weeks. The Chargers and Packers cost some people in Week 4 (in Yahoo survival football, players are eliminated with a tie), but it has mostly been a clean runout. There’s only one double-digit spread this week, and it’s a road team. The Lions are 10-point favorites over the Bengals, and assuming people haven’t used the Lions they’ll be a popular pick. The second-largest spread is the Cardinals -8.5 against the Titans. As byes hit and it gets deeper into the season, it will get harder to find great picks for survival pools. The carnage will start soon.