If Saquon Barkley is dreaming about winning NFL MVP, maybe he should give Cooper Kupp a call.
In 2021, Kupp had one of the great individual seasons in league history. He won the receiving triple crown with a ridiculous 145 catches-1,947 yards-16 touchdowns line. And for that he got one NFL MVP vote. Aaron Rodgers won in what was ultimately a forgettable season by him.
Kupp probably wasn’t surprised. NFL MVP changed in 2014, when J.J. Watt was clearly the best player in the league but lost MVP to an ultimately forgettable season from Rodgers. That’s when it fully became an award for whatever quarterback was at the front of the line when the season ended. For 12 of the last 15 seasons, and each of the last seven seasons, the MVP has been a quarterback off a No. 1 seed.
Yet Barkley’s 255-yard game against the Rams has given him some much-needed MVP buzz late in the season. Barkley might have a shot, which is rare for a non-quarterback. Here’s what he’ll probably need to do to win the award:
Set the single-season rushing record, or at least eclipse 2,000 yards: Eric Dickerson’s 2,105-yard record has stood since 1984. Barkley is on pace for 2,150.5 yards. Breaking an iconic record would give him a push. Getting to 2,000 would help. Four of the eight 2,000-yard rushers in NFL history won MVP. No running back since 1993 has won without a 2,000-yard season or setting a single-season touchdown record. Would Barkley win if he ends with, say, 1,950 yards? Ask Kupp how that goes.
Eagles get the No. 1 seed: The overemphasis on picking an MVP quarterback from a No. 1 seed is maddening, but it’s part of the formula now. A non-QB faces long odds to win, and probably can’t leave any box unchecked. If the Eagles can overtake the Lions for the top seed, that would eliminate voters defaulting to someone like Jared Goff. And Barkley could argue he’s the most valuable player on a top seed. That matters.
QBs slip up: Barkley is on a record pace coming off a massive game in a nationally televised stage, and he’s still not the MVP favorite. He’s actually a decent bit behind. At BetMGM, the favorite is Josh Allen (+150 odds) followed by Lamar Jackson (+220), then Barkley (+650) and Goff (+700). Everyone else is at least 10-to-1. You’ll hear a lot this week about Barkley’s MVP chances, and he’s in the conversation, but those odds are a reminder that if there’s a QB who can win, that’s what will happen. Barkley likely needs a stumble from Allen, Jackson and maybe even Goff. That’s just how the award is now.
Barkley is having a remarkable season. But he still needs a few things to happen to actually win NFL MVP.