Vikings No. 1 wide receiver Justin Jefferson is still trying to get on the same page as sophomore quarterback J.J. McCarthy.
That said, he saw plenty of targets on Sunday which is why my NFL picks are betting on him to take advantage of a weak Bears secondary in Week 11.
Here are my best NFL player props for Week 11 in the NFL.
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-114 at FanDuel
Breece Hall is coming off back-to-back strong performances but those came in victories against the lowly Browns and Bengals. The New York Jets are 13.5-point road underdogs against the 8-2 New England Patriots this week which should lead to a negative game script and fewer carries for Hall.
New England has been elite against the run, holding opposing running backs to a league-low 57.5 rushing yards per game on 3.3 yards per carry.
The Pats rank fourth in defensive rush EPA and will stack the box since they won’t fear a historically bad Jets passing attack under Justin Fields.
-114 at FanDuel
The Atlanta Falcons are on a four-game skid after losing in overtime to the Colts last week. If they want to get their season back on track, they need to lean on their best player in Bijan Robinson. The Pro Bowl running back has rushed for 679 yards and 5.0 yards per carry.
Robinson rushed for 84 yards last week and this Sunday he’ll face the Carolina Panthers who are 20th in the league in defensive rush EPA and DVOA. They’ll be missing linebacker Trevin Wallace while their best defensive lineman Derrick Brown is hindered by a knee injury.
When these division rivals previously clashed in Week 3, Robinson rushed for 72 yards on 13 carries despite Atlanta playing with a negative game script in a blowout loss. I’m expecting a closer contest here which should lead to him going Over 72.5 yards.
-114 at FanDuel
Justin Jefferson is coming off a pair of quiet performances but the All-Pro wideout is poised for a big game in Week 11.
The Minnesota Vikings are still adjusting to new quarterback J.J. McCarthy but he’s coming off a game where he threw for a career-high 248 yards and playing indoors at U.S. Bank Stadium should help with his passing efficiency.
While Jefferson was limited to 37 receiving yards on four catches last week, he saw a season-high 12 targets. Expect him to reel in more of those targets this week against a Chicago Bears defense that is vulnerable through the air.
Chicago is 26th in the league in defensive pass DVOA while allowing 160.0 receiving yards per game to wide receivers the sixth-highest number in the league. This is a five-star prop according to EV Analytics which is projecting 88.19 yards for Jefferson.
-114 at FanDuel
Tyreek Hill is out with a season-ending injury, and Jaylen Waddle has stepped into the No. 1 WR role with the Miami Dolphins. He’s racked up more than 80 receiving yards in five of his last six contests, and now gets to face a struggling Washington Commanders defense in Madrid.
Washington allows the second-most receiving yards per game (177.9) to opposing wide receivers and ranks last in defensive dropback EPA. That brutal secondary will be even worse with starting cornerbacks Marshon Lattimore and Trey Amos sidelined by injuries.
-120 at FanDuel
I’ve been betting on Christian McCaffrey’s receiving props for most of the year which has been highly profitable. That said, it might be time to start fading the San Francisco 49ers RB when it comes to the passing game.
The 49ers face the Arizona Cardinals, who allow the eighth-fewest receptions per game (3.9) to opposing running backs. But the main reason I’m fading C-Mac on his receptions is due to some big changes in San Francisco’s lineup.
Quarterback Brock Purdy and starting wide receiver Ricky Pearsall return to the field after missing the last six weeks. Purdy tends to throw downfield more than backup Mac Jones and will likely rely slightly less on CMC in the passing game.
Pearsall ranks 12th in the league in yards per route run and his presence gives the Niners a wealth of receiving options alongside Jauan Jennings, George Kittle, and Kendrick Bourne.
With so many weapons, Purdy will likely spread the ball around, resulting in a downtick in targets and receptions for McCaffrey.
My NFL weekly props column is 26-19 this season for +4.26 units.
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