Midseason awards! Come get your midseason awards!
We are nine weeks through an 18-week NFL season. Lets hand out my selections for the NFLs top honors.
Theres no shortage of names to consider here. Let’s start with most of them, and work our way toward my pick.
Past winners like Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes are both leading some of the leagues best offenses, their teams are both winning games, and their underlying statistics are both strong in the categories that I look at (though perhaps not overwhelming). Mahomes has been dangerous as a scrambler this year as the Chiefs’ offense found its footing, and its starting to regain its explosiveness as well with Rashee Rice coming back and players like Tyquan Thornton being a pleasant surprise. Its perhaps a good thing
Matthew Stafford is playing the best ball of his career, leading the Rams (perhaps the NFLs best team right now) and their supercharged offense. Every throw between Stafford and his top two weapons Puka Nacua and Davante Adams looking like it has some spice melange flying off of it. Stafford, too, has strong stats that put him in the top 10 of all the underlying metrics I look at (success rate, EPA per dropback, DVOA, net yards per attempt). But again, they’re not overwhelming. And like Allen, hes also paired with a strong run game that helps lift some of the load. Allen’s main counter to that argument is that the Bills’ defense was, at one point, giving up record levels of explosive runs. Which is fair!
Sam Darnold has gone supernova for portions of this season, thriving in Klint Kubiaks offense and developing a mind meld with Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Darnold ranks second in dropback success rate, third in EPA per dropback, second in QBR and first in net yards per attempt (9.0!), and he’s done that while playing the seventh-hardest schedule per FTNs DVOA metric. Darnolds DVOA entering week 10 of 41.5% is 10% higher than Stafford in second place. The Seahawks’ run game has been one of the leagues least efficient, but they have one of its best defenses (and special teams units, too). That said, Darnold, JSN, and the rest of the Seahawks’ pass catchers have gone nuclear this season in Kubiaks offense. Things are streamlined for Darnold, but hes operating at the cleanest and quickest level of his career.
Jordan Love and Daniel Jones are two other names that both warrant mention. Love sits atop the NFL in EPA per dropback, and plays much more consistent and efficient football than people think. And Jones has been making smart decisions and operating the NFLs best offense to the fullest (at least until the Colts stubbed their toe against the Steelers with a half-dozen turnovers).
Really, I would understand any of these players being the pick for MVP. But I ended up going with Drake Maye.
I try to weigh what quarterbacks are doing in each of their circumstances. Sometimes the numbers match perfectly with what Im seeing when I review NFL games, but sometimes they do not, for any number of reasons. In the case of Maye and the Patriots, its pretty cut and dry the impact hes making.
Maye is first in dropback success rate on a high volume. He accumulated the most EPA on his dropbacks among all quarterbacks and fourth in EPA per dropback. Hes fourth in net yards per attempt despite a high rate of sacks, which he’s taking thanks to a combination of the Patriots’ offensive line still being a work in progress and Maye eating sacks to try and limit the damage done to himself and on a given play when hes under pressure. Maye has shown the ability to push the ball to all areas of the field, with accuracy and plenty of pace behind his throws, too. Hes explosive as a passer and as a runner, and is always in an attack mode even when the Patriots are behind the sticks.
While the Patriots’ personnel has improved and players like Kayshon Boutte are having breakout years, the overall pass catching group, run game, and offensive line are still average at best. New England’s run game has had some nice performances but still ranks just 27th in DVOA. The defense is great against the run, but the pass defense is still developing and as likely to allow a big play through the air as Maye is to throw one. Box score stats also paint a favorite picture of what Maye is doing, and the eye test and film review of Maye shows hes knocking on the door with the dreaded E-word written across it (ELITE). Maye has been simply excellent this year.
And while the Patriots have played an easy schedule, which has been one of the biggest counterpoints to his MVP candidacy, the Patriots’ defense has actually been more of the beneficiary of the easy slate of games to start the season, playing the easiest schedule per DVOA while the offense has played the 16th-hardest ranked schedule
In case you were wondering, here are the the MVP candidates offenses schedule strength per DVOA. The higher the ranking, the harder the schedule:
NFL MVP pick: Drake Maye, QB, Patriots
This one came down to the same three players that my quarter-season awards column came down to: Puka Nacua, Jonathan Taylor, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Nacuas injuries ding him just a little bit, but hes still putting up unreal statistics and should be coming back this week.
Taylor has been awesome in the explosive Colts offense, pacing the league in rushing yards and touchdowns and seemingly ripping off a huge play every time Indianapolis has the football (which isnt that big of an exaggeration). The Colts can run any type of run scheme or from shotgun or under center and Taylor will get the most out of it. Whether its advanced metrics or box score numbers, Taylor is excelling in every way this year.
Even with Taylor and Nacua shining this year, this award was actually a pretty easy selection for me. Smith-Njigba leads the NFL in receiving yards and is on pace to break 2,000, which would of course be historic in its own right. But his advanced metrics also point to a season for the ages.
Smith-Njigba is currently averaging 4.47 yards per route run over the first nine weeks of the season. While this stat has become more popular in recent years, I want to give historical context as to how high of a mark 4.47 is: Only a dozen wide receivers have topped 3 or more yards per route run since 2013 (the furthest TruMedias database reliably goes back for route metrics). Tyreek Hills 2023 season is currently the highest mark at 3.85 yards. Smith-Njigba is more than a half yard above Hills already-eyewatering mark.
He’s also currently earning the second-highest target share since 2013, being targeted on 37.3% his routes. Hes racked up a first down on 19.3% of those routes, which again is the highest mark since 2013, and again is topping Hill’s 2023 season at 17.8%. Pigeonholed as a slot-only dynamo in the short and intermediate game, Smith-Njigba is currently gaining an explosive reception (16 yards or more) on 11.3% of his routes, and he’s doing it all over the field on catch-and-runs and on the deep ball. Just how high of a rate is 11.3%? Only 7 WRs are above 6% this year and Nacua is in second at 6.9%. So you guessed it 11.3% ranks first since 2013.
Three awesome players. Smith-Njigba has just been historically awesome over the first nine weeks.
NFL OPOY pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seahawks
This sections data is all via Next Gen Stats.
Ill spoil this section to tell you that nothing has really changed from my quarter-season award pick. Myles Garrett is still dominating as a pass rusher. He has 10 sacks despite being chipped at the second-highest rate in the NFL, and has another high pressure rate to point at (16.2%, including 16 quick pressures) despite garnering so much attention.
But carrying over a big point from my quarter-season section about Garrett: This is the best hes ever played against the run. Despite earning another hefty extension and being the one-man counterweight for yet another bad Browns offense, Garrett is playing harder against the run and is impacting those plays more than ever, too.
Garrett has 10 sacks but he also leads all NFL edge defenders with 10 run stuffs, which are tackles that result in gains of zero or negative yards. He has as many run stuffs as he did all of last year, and he had 13 during his previous DPOY campaign in 2023. (That was the year he recorded his previous career high in stuff rate at 4.8%. This year its at 7.5%, which again leads edge defenders.)
There are plenty of other defenders that can battle for runner-up at this point in time. Micah Parsons and Will Anderson Jr. are the two I would have on my midseason podium. Anderson Jr. has six sacks but is second in the NFL in pressure rate and has generated the second-most quick pressures this year. That is despite the Texans creating the fewest unblocked pressures in the NFL because of their defensive style, which just pulls the strings on the back of their front four and letts them go and attack offensive linemen.
Parsons is still productive and collecting pressures like Pokemon cards. He has still been his dominant and dangerous self with the Packers and can make a strong case in the second half of the year. But Garrett has just been that good.
NFL DPOY pick: Myles Garrett, Edge, Browns
Emeka Egbuka was my quarter-season pick after a scorching hot start to his career, but even though he’s a helluva football player, he’s cooled off over the past few weeks.
Tetairoa McMillan is giving it all hes got (captain) for the Panthers. Despite shoddy quarterback play, McMillan ranks ninth in first downs per route run (11.4%), ninth in explosive receptions per route (5.7%) and 19th in successful receptions per route run among 60 wide receivers with 200 or more routes run this season. McMillan looks like a star.
Tyler Warren has been an incredibly effective receiver to start his career. You can tell Shane Steichen loves drawing up players for the versatile Warren, whose underlying stats make him look like a good No. 2 wide receiver already Warren has a higher explosive reception per route rate than Deebo Samuel, Quentin Johnston, Briant Thomas Jr., and A.J. Brown and not like a rookie tight end. Warren has been very good, and is my midseason runner-up, but this is where I cant help myself.
In a wide open Offensive Rookie of the Year race, I went with a player that deserves as much recognition as possible despite playing a position that will likely never give him the award (but we should, dang it!). Grey Zabel was a polished player entering the NFL, but its still a tough transition from college to the NFL, especially from the FCS level. Zabel has already played like a good starter, and I would say even at a Pro Bowl level, over the first two months of his career.
The floor is lifted by the Seahawks’ play-action and zone-heavy scheme, but Zabel excels and lifts the ceiling of what is asked out of him, creating a formidable and athletic left side with left tackle Charles Cross. Zabel is athletic enough to get to the second level and help create voids with his cut-off blocks. And hes been superb in pass protection so far this season: Zabel has only allowed eight pressures, with his 3.5% pressure rate allowed the lowest among all qualifying offensive guards in the NFL. Not just rookie guards, all NFL guards. He hasnt allowed a sack so far this season as well, per Next Gen Stats. And no rookie offensive guard since 2016 has played as many pass protection snaps as Zabel has this season (231) and not allowed a sack.
NFL OROY pick: Grey Zabel, OG, Seahawks
The same players that occupied the top two spots for my quarter-season defensive rookie award occupy them again. Carson Schwesinger looks like a future Pro Bowler for the Browns at linebacker, with his speed and athleticism already letting him stand out in coverage and his play recognition ability shining against the run. Schwesingers speed and bend let him shine as a blitzer, too. He suffered an injury just before the Browns’ bye that might impact his chances for the full-season award, but that shouldnt hinder his midseason ranking.
Abdul Carter might not have recorded a sack since the quarter-season point, but hes still wreaking havoc as a pass rusher and playing like a needle-moving defender that offenses have to account for every snap.
Carter has 34 pressures this season (the same amount as Myles Garrett), hes third in quick pressures, and has the third-fastest time to pressure in the entire NFL, per Next Gen Stats. Hes a weapon for the Giants to move around and just constantly gets in the backfield. His hilariously low 1.5% pressure-to-sack rate will surely rebound soon and result in more sacks. But Carter has made his presence known already with his explosive pass rushing process. Its been a treat to watch him and Brian Burns this year, creating a new New York Nightmare for offenses to deal with. (Maybe the back end of the Giants defense should be the ones earning that moniker with how theyve been tackling.)
NFL DROY pick: Abdul Carter, Edge, Giants
Andrew Thomas got the pick for the quarter-season point. He helped rejuvenate the Giants’ run game and has only allowed one sack so far this season. Thomas 4.28 time to pressure allowed would be the longest time to pressure allowed (in a good way) by any offensive tackle in Next Gen Stats database, which goes back to 2016. His play has been great since returning from injury, even with a young and injured Giants offense around him.
Lane Johnson also makes the podium, along with Garrett Bolles (its a very big podium). Both are playing excellent football, with Johnson playing as well as he ever has and Bolles being an excellent two-way left tackle that has some real strong moments as a run blocker.
My pick, though, is Creed Humphrey. Trey Smith got paid this offseason and the Chiefs have played two talented linemen on the left side in Josh Simmons (who seems to be returning soon after taking some time off for personal reasons) and Kingsley Suamataia (one of the top candidates for most improved player in the NFL this year). But Humphrey, the NFLs best center, is what ties it all together.
Humphrey is an impact player as a run blocker and a pass blocker. He can get movement in gap schemes and has the athleticism to climb and make cutoff blocks on zone runs. Hes allowed the lowest pressure rate among all offensive linemen this year at 2.7%, which is an excellent mark in any given season. His average time to pressure allowed is 4.19 seconds, which is notable considering the QB he plays with (Thomas too, considering he’s played with Russell Wilson and Jaxson Dart) and would be the second-longest time to pressure allowed and only behind Marshal Yandas 2019 season.
Offensive line metrics are noisy, but Humphreys match just how incredible hes been this season at the pivot spot for the Chiefs.
NFL Protector of the Year pick: Creed Humphrey, C, Chiefs
This award, especially at the halfway point, is just whatever you want to argue. I narrowed my shortlist down to four coaches. There’s Mike Vrabel, who’s led the Patriots back to the top of the AFC East. There’s Kyle Shanahan, who’s continued to win with the 49ers despite every position group being devastated by injury. There’s Mike Macdonald, who’s helmed one of the NFLs best defenses, switched offensive coordinators to great success and led perhaps the most complete team in the NFL at the midway point.
And then there’s Shane Steichen, who is my pick at the midway point, dialing up plays for not only the best offense through nine weeks, but one of the best offenses weve seen this millennium. Macdonald and Steichen both had input in making huge decisions at the quarterback spot, and both have turned out wonderfully so far through the first two months.
Take your pick. Steichen is mine.
NFL Coach of the Year pick: Shane Steichen, Colts
Ill find any excuse to bring up position coaches and not just play-callers for this award. And I think the work that Tony Sparano Jr. (offensive line coach, Colts) and Klayton Adams (offensive coordinator, Cowboys) both deserve a tip of the cap so far this season. The Colts’ run game is at or near the top of every possible metric you look at, with notable development happening with their young players. Adams has a large input in the Cowboys’ run game and protection plan, even while withstanding injuries.
This really came down to two coaches for me: Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak and Rams defensive coordinator Chris Shula. Kubiak has helmed one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, and has mostly done it through the air with Sam Darnold and Jaxon Smith-Njigba forming one of the NFLs most effective connections. Auxiliary players have also had strong years and the offensive line, while improved, still has holes and Kubiak helps it punch above its weight because of a friendly scheme. The run game still has a ways to go, but Im excited to see Rashid Shaheed dropped into this offense.
I ended up giving it to Shula, whose dime-heavy defense (the Rams use six defensive backs on 34.6% of their snaps, per Next Gen Stats, the highest rate in the NFL) gets the most out of every one of its players. The Rams’ defense is smart on the back end and feisty up front. They create pressure in a multitude of different ways, from Byron Young straight winning one-on-one, Jared Verse getting lined up against a center, or Braden Fiske slanting and beating another interior lineman. The scheme has variety every week and players play with great awareness as to whats coming.
The results point to a defense thats blossoming. The Rams rank fifth in DVOA (and third in weighted, which is skewed more to recent performances, per FTN), fourth in success rate (seventh vs. the run, fourth vs. the pass), fifth in yards per play, and first in EPA per play (fifth vs. the run, second vs. the pass). They create pressure, and their game plans showcase thoughtfulness; look at those passing ranks, and now I ask you to name a single Rams defensive back.
I knew the pass rush would be one of the leagues best, but the rest of this defense has been such a pleasant surprise. And for that reason, Shula is my pick (and I cant wait to see Roger McCreary in this defensive back room).
NFL Assistant Coach of the Year pick: Chris Shula, Rams