Just how dominant were favorites in the first month of the NFL season? They won 73% of the games (46-17-1 SU) and covered the point spread at a 56.3% clip (36-28 ATS).
Suffice to say, the script flipped in Week 5, when underdogs barked in a very big and very loud way. Not only did dogs go 9-5 ATS, but all nine were outright victories.
The five marquee matchups we highlighted in our Week 5 NFL betting trends report? Underdogs won them all, including two the San Francisco 49ers and New England Patriots that were catching more than a touchdown by kickoff.
Are last weeks results a precursor of things to come? Or will favorites return to their winning (and spread-covering) ways in Week 6?
If only we had a crystal ball.
What we do have, though, is another batch of intriguing NFL betting trends that once again targets each prime-time game, as well as Sundays most compelling early and late clashes.
All listed odds are via BetMGM and subject to change.
Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET Thursday
Moneyline: Eagles -400/Giants +310
Since the start of the 2014 season, Philadelphia is 19-4 against the Giants (including a 2023 playoff victory) but only 12-11 at the betting window.
The Eagles won and covered both meetings last season. Prior to that, though, New York had been on a 10-4 ATS roll (all as an underdog).
Another NFL betting trend related to this NFC East rivalry: The under has cashed in 10 of the last 14 clashes (playoffs included), with the last three in a row and four of the last five staying below 39 points.
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Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts, who has 56 rushing touchdowns since the start of the 2021 campaign, has failed to find the end zone in the last two games.
The last time Hurts had a three-game scoreless streak in the same season? Weeks 6, 7 and 9 in 2022 (bye in Week 8). Hurts has since started 52 regular-season and playoff contests.
New York has allowed six rushing TDs through five games, but none to quarterbacks. However, Hurts has scored in two of his last three visits to MetLife Stadium (including two TDs last year). Hes a -135 favorite to add to that total on Thursday Night Football.
Rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart has racked up 98 rushing yards on just 17 carries in his first two starts for the Giants.
This week, Dart faces an Eagles defense that has surrendered 104 rushing yards to quarterbacks on 13 carries (eight yards per rush). The Chiefs Patrick Mahomes (six carries, 66 yards) and the Broncos Bo Nix (three carries, 22 yards) did the bulk of that damage.
Darts rushing projection against Philly: 38.5 yards (over -115/under -115).
Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET Sunday
Moneyline: Seahawks -102/Jaguars -118
The Jaguars improved to 4-1 SU and ATS with their last-minute 31-28 upset of Kansas City on Monday night.
The only time in team history Jacksonville won five of its first six games: way back in 1999, when it started 13-1.
Last time the Jags started 5-1 ATS (or better): Its never happened since the franchise was established in 1995, per SportsOddsHistory.com.
Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold has eclipsed 240 passing yards in three of his last four games. And going back to Week 2 of the 2024 campaign when he resurrected his career in Minnesota Darnold has cleared 230 passing yards in 15 of 18 starts (playoffs included).
Whats more, Darnold has racked up more than 240 air yards in nine of his last 10 road outings (per game average: 252.6).
So far this season, three quarterbacks have shredded the Jaguars secondary: Cincinnatis Jake Browning (241 yards in relief of Joe Burrow), San Franciscos Brock Purdy (309) and Kansas Citys Mahomes (318).
Conversely, Carolinas Chuba Hubbard (57 yards in Week 1) is the only running back who has rushed for 50 yards against Jacksonville.
During this century, Jacksonville is 3-9 SU and 3-8-1 ATS the week after playing on Monday Night Football (0-2 SU and ATS as a favorite).
On the flip side of the NFL betting trends ledger, the Jaguars have covered the spread in seven of their last eight home games, including four in a row since the 2024-25 season finale.
Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday
Moneyline: 49ers +140/Buccaneers -165
In Week 10 last season, the Buccaneers fell 23-20 to San Francisco as a 6.5-point home underdog, then embarked on their bye week.
Since returning from that bye, Tampa has won 10 of 12 regular-season games (7-5 ATS). The Bucs are 4-1 at home in this span but 2-3 ATS.
Another Tampa Bay-specific NFL betting trend that bears mentioning: The over has cashed in four straight games at Raymond James Stadium and eight of 11 since the 2024 season kicked off.
With their Thursday Night Football overtime upset of the Rams in Week 5, the 49ers ended a four-game spread-covering slump as an underdog. They also improved to 3-0 SU and ATS away from home after dropping their final four roadies in 2024 (0-4 ATS).
Another trend San Francisco continued with last weeks 26-23 win in L.A.: All five of the teams games this season have been decided by five points or fewer.
Similarly, every Bucs game has been decided by six points or fewer, including all four victories by a field goal or less. Add it up, and the Niners have a plus-8 point differential and Tampa is at plus-3.
After ripping off some first-half runs against the Rams last week, Christian McCaffrey hit a brick wall, finishing with 57 rushing yards on 22 carries.
San Franciscos versatile running back has now failed to crack 60 rushing yards in four consecutive games and seven of his last 10. Hes also gone 11 consecutive regular-season contests without a rushing touchdown.
This isnt to say that CMC isnt contributing. He has at least six receptions in every game this year and has topped 70 receiving yards four times (including 88, 92 and 82 the past three weeks). McCaffrey also has a touchdown reception in three of his last four (including the past two weeks).
Worth noting: Tampa Bays defense ranks ninth in the NFL against the run and 20th versus the pass.
Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday
Moneyline: Lions +115/Chiefs -140
Detroit has righted the ship since its lethargic 27-13 season-opening loss at Green Bay, recording four straight blowout victories (by 8, 13, 24 and 31 points).
The Lions tallied at least 34 points in each win and 165 in all meaning they have put up more points in the last four weeks than any other franchise has scored in five games. This week, Detroit is projected for 25.5 points against a Chiefs defense that surrendered 31 on Monday at Jacksonville.
Interestingly, K.C. has allowed more than 25 points in back-to-back games just once since Week 15 of 2022. Last year, it gave up 30 to Buffalo and 27 to Carolina in Weeks 11 and 12.
With their current hot streak, the Lions are 39-10 SU and an NFL-best 37-12 ATS in the regular season since Week 9 of 2022.
During this stretch, Detroit has won and covered 20 of 25 road games, and gone 8-4 SU and 10-2 ATS as an underdog.
That includes a 21-20 upset at Kansas City as a 4-point dog in the 2023 opener.
Patrick Mahomes rushed for a team-high 60 yards at Jacksonville. Hes now led the Chiefs in rushing three times in five games, and his 190 ground yards are 36 more than any of his running backs.
In fact, none of those running backs has rushed for as many as 50 yards in a game this year.
The Lions defense? It ranks seventh versus the run (92.2 yards per game). The only opponent to crack 66 rushing yards against Detroit: Browns rookie Quinshon Judkins (82 yards in Week 4).
Kickoff: 7:15 p.m. ET Monday
Moneyline: Bills -224/Falcons +185
Buffalos perfect season came to a screeching halt Sunday night, falling 23-20 to New England as an 8-point home favorite. The Bills are in the midst of an 0-3 ATS funk, all as big favorites (eight points or more).
Also, Buffalo has split its 10 Monday Night Football games this decade (both SU and ATS). Meanwhile, the Falcons have won seven of their last eight on Monday night (4-4 ATS).
Two NFL betting trends that favor the Bills, though: Theyre on a 5-2 ATS roll on the road and a 10-4 ATS surge when laying less than seven points.
Atlanta kicked off the 2022 season with six consecutive point-spread triumphs (all as an underdog). Since then, the Falcons are 10-19-1 ATS (5-13-1 ATS as an underdog).
Furthermore, even with its 34-26 Week 4 win over Washington as a 2.5-point home favorite, Atlanta remains just 5-6 SU and 4-7 ATS at home since Week 1 of 2024.
Falcons running back Bijan Robinson is projected for 78.5 rushing yards against Buffalo. Its an interesting number, as Robinson has surpassed 70 rushing yards in three straight games but topped 75 yards just once (a season-high 143 in Week 2 at Minnesota).
Additionally, Robinson has rushed for at least 86 yards in 11 of his last 16 contests, clearing triple digits six times. But while he averaged 111 rushing yards in his final five home games in 2024, Robinson was limited to 24 and 75 yards in his first two in Atlanta this year.
The 2023 first-round pick will face a Bills defense that yielded a season-low 71 rushing yards to the Patriots. Still, Buffalo ranks 28th in stopping the run (145.6 yards per game) and 30th in yards per attempt (5.34).
Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET Monday
Moneyline: Commanders -225/Bears +185
The Bears survived a last-second, game-winning field goal attempt in Las Vegas two weeks ago, escaping with a 25-24 victory.
Couple that result with a 31-14 rout of Dallas in Week 3, and Chicago no doubt had an enjoyable Week 5 bye. Not so enjoyable: Since 2014, the Bears are 1-10 SU and 3-8 ATS after a week off.
Chicago emerged from its bye and hit the road five times in those 11 years. The teams record: 0-5 SU and ATS including a 18-15 loss at Washington on a last-second Hail Mary exactly 50 weeks ago.
Washington rolled to easy wins over the Giants (21-6) and Raiders (41-24) in their first two home games of 2025. The Commanders are now 9-2 SU and ATS at home since the start of last season.
One of those victories, of course, was last years miraculous Week 8 stunner against Chicago. With that, Washington improved to 15-4 against the Bears (14-5 ATS) dating back to 1989.
However, despite the gut-wrenching defeat in 2024, Chicago still has won four of the last seven meetings in the nations capital.
Quirky NFL betting trends alert: Since 2015, the Bears are 1-5 SU (2-4 ATS) on Monday Night Football when facing NFC North rival Minnesota. The most recent: a 27-24 defeat as a one-point favorite in this years MNF opener.
Against the rest of the league, Chicago is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS on MNF over the past decade. That includes a 31-15 rout of Washington as a 5-point road favorite early in 2019.
Since that 2019 defeat, the Commanders are a 4-0 on Monday night (three outright upsets and one pick ’em victory).