The 2025-26 NBA season is here! Over the next few weeks, we’re examining the biggest questions, best- and worst-case scenarios, and win projections for all 30 franchises from the still-rebuilding teams to the true title contenders.
(If that seems like a lot of moving pieces, thats because it is: New Orleans ranks last in the NBA in roster continuity, according to John Schuhmanns analysis, bidding farewell to 50% of last seasons minutes.)
No team caught more shrapnel over the offseason than the Pelicans. (Well, no team without an alleged salary cap circumvention investigation brewing, anyway.)
Pundits and observers all over the league (including here) raked New Orleans new braintrust executive vice president of basketball operations Joe Dumars and senior vice president of basketball operations Troy Weaver over the coals for their draft-night decision-making. To review:
Turning three potential shots at a top-10 pick in next years draft into Queen a super-talented offensive big man, but also a prospect whose defensive potential, athleticism and conditioning have come under question drew widespread criticism, both for a reported negotiation behind the trade that almost beggars belief, and for what many considered a faulty overarching thought process.
You just won 21 games, with one of the worst defenses in the NBA, and your hoped-for lead guard, Dejounte Murray, is likely out until at least January as he works his way back from a ruptured Achilles and youre trading unprotected picks?
Avoiding the most catastrophic outcome here handing the Hawks a top pick in a class headlined by mega-prospects like Darryn Peterson, A.J. Dybantsa, Cameron Boozer and Nate Ament doesnt just require Queen to look like a budding star after offseason wrist surgery, or the shuffled-up Bucks to make the playoffs. It also requires the Pelicans themselves owners of last seasons fourth-worst record and second-worst net rating to vault into the playoff picture in the brutally competitive West.
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That will require better health for a team that lost the fifth-most games in the league to injury last season, according to Spotrac, with Murray, the since-traded Brandon Ingram, All-Defensive wing Herb Jones, ascending two-way swingman Trey Murphy III and Jose Alvarado among the many, many Pelicans who missed significant time. The most important of them, of course: Zion Williamson. And more than anything, New Orleans chances of being good enough not to hand Atlanta a golden ticket rest on stop me if you think youve heard this one before a full, healthy, superstar-level-impact season from one of the most tantalizing, frustrating and inescapably alluring players in the world.
Weve seen Williamson look like a destroyer of worlds for stretches like the beginning of the 2022-23 season, when he had the Pelicans looking like a title contender right up until he suffered a season-ending hamstring injury.
Weve seen him play a mostly full season, logging 70 games and more than 2,200 minutes in 2023-24 but with his scoring, rebounding, field-goal percentage and overall impact dipping in the process. Those Pels won 49 games and made the play-in tournament, with Zion looking like the best player on the floor against the Lakers right up until he hurt his hamstring.
What we havent seen since 2020-21, though when he played 61 of 72 games, averaged 27 points per game on 61.1% shooting, and earned his first All-Star berth is Zion doing both. The Pelicans need him to be that kind of ever-present and overwhelming; they need him to take the stretch he had last season when he looked like hed leveled up as a playmaker and all-around force (right up until, natch, he was shut down with a back injury) and maintain it for 70 games.
Give me a healthy Williamson, Jones and Murphy playmaking, size, shooting and athleticism across the 2 through 4 spots, with Jones reclaiming his spot as arguably the best perimeter defender in the league and you can talk me into the shot-creation swings on Jordan Poole, who bounced back from an oops, all memes! 2023-24 in Washington to average 20.5 points and 4.5 assists per game on .591 true shooting last season, and Fears, a hiccup-quick penetrator whom our Kevin OConnor actually compared to Poole coming out of Oklahoma. Piece together that kind of offensive firepower on the perimeter, and maybe the question marks at center second-year pros Yves Missi and Karlo Matković, rookie Queen, veteran giving tree Looney and on defense more broadly become less worrisome. (Willie Green, who conjured up consecutive top-10 finishes in defensive efficiency in 2022-23 and 23-24, has his work cut out for him.)
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The only way it all works, though, is if Williamson stays on the court. The Pelicans have projected confidence in him doing so, with Dumars guaranteeing his contract and calling on the former No. 1 overall pick to be responsible and accountable to his teammates and the franchise. Williamson has responded by getting in what appears to be the best shape of his professional career, telling reporters on media day that he hasnt felt this good since his reality-rending lone year at Duke and that hes ready to give whatever my team needs.
More than anything, it needs him all of him, all the time. Anything less, and drastic changes could be coming in New Orleans.
Lucy finally lets Charlie Brown kick the football. Zion puts it all together, playing 70-plus games, making All-NBA First Team, finishing on or just outside the MVP ballot, and returning to the All-Star team where hes joined by Murphy, who builds on the leap he took last season before tearing his labrum. After playing a grand total of zero minutes together last season, Williamson, Jones and Murphy form one of the leagues most frequently used and potent trios, providing an elevated baseline and support structure that allows youngsters Fears, Queen and Missi to get in where they fit in. Poole continues last seasons resurgence, Murray comes back looking like the star they traded for him to be, and the Pelicans ride a top-10 offense to a top-10 seed in the West postseason participation that makes the pick debt to Atlanta less onerous.
Williamson cant stay healthy, the house of cards crumbles, the Pelicans took on $65.9 million worth of Poole for no tangible benefit, and they watch the Hawks take a top-five pick off their hands.
If Zion plays 60 games, I think the Pelicans will win at least half of them, which would leave us with the over. All thats left, then, is to put our money down on Zion staying healthy.
No, by all means: You go first.
East: Atlanta Hawks Boston Celtics Brooklyn Nets Charlotte Hornets Chicago Bulls Cleveland Cavaliers Detroit Pistons Indiana Pacers Miami Heat Milwaukee Bucks New York Knicks Orlando Magic Philadelphia 76ers Toronto Raptors Washington Wizards
West: Dallas Mavericks Denver Nuggets Golden State Warriors Houston Rockets Los Angeles Clippers Los Angeles Lakers Memphis Grizzlies Minnesota Timberwolves New Orleans Pelicans Oklahoma City Thunder Phoenix Suns Portland Trail Blazers Sacramento Kings San Antonio Spurs Utah Jazz