Adam Howard, The Wolfpacks New Offensive Coordinator
In an early press conference, when Coach Wade talked about adding Coach Adam Howard to his staff, he said he normally is heavily involved with the offense, but this season he was taking a step back and letting Coach Howard lead. Make no mistake, this is still going to lean into the Wade philosophy, but Coach Howard is having an effect.
Coach Howard has been in the college coaching ranks since 2009, he spent the last three seasons at Nebraska where he had responsibility for their offense. Like the Wolfpack, Nebraska had a special season in 23-24 and Coach Howard gets a lot of credit for it. (from GoPack)
In 2023-24, Nebraska went 23-11, the second-highest win total in school history, and reached the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2014. [lost to Texas A&M in the first round] The Huskers, who were picked 12th in the preseason, tied for third in the Big Ten, marking the programs best conference finish in more than 30 years. Nebraska averaged 77.7 points per game, a total which was the programs highest average since 1995-96, while leading the Big Ten with 9.5 3-pointers per game. NUs season was highlighted by a pair of top-10 wins, including an 88-72 win over No. 1 Purdue, which was NUs first win over a No. 1 team since 1982.
Comparing the two teams
After having played three games and won by an average of 39.3 ppg, its not surprising at all to see that the Wolfpack offense is statistically one of the best in the country. And while fun to chat about across Pack Nation, we all know it doesnt mean much until the battles begin.
Just for fun, I took a look at Coach Howards 23-24 team to look for similarities / differences to see if there is any takeaway to predict what this Wolfpack team will look like at the end of the regular season. Caveat emptor, there are severe limitations in comparing the Nebraska full B1G 34-game season to the Wolfpacks three OOC games. But lets look anyway.
How did they do? They had a really good season. They finished the season 3rd in the B1G behind Purdue and Illinois. The latest NET ranking I could find (3/7/24) ranked them 43rd. They were an 8th seed in the tournament. Coach Hoiberg was the Co-COY, Nebraska had one player each on the 2nd and 3rd All-Conference teams.
Team Offensive Stat Comparison
Takeaways
3PT shooting Coaching 101: Opposing teams are going to see that 15 made 3PT per game and build their game plan to prevent it. Dont be suprised to see it in the next five games.
Just how good are those numbers? For comparisons sake, at the end of last season Duke was the 7th best 3PT shooting team in the country at 38.6% and averaged making 10.1 per game. They attempted 1020 3PT attempts for the season. Coach Howards Nebraska team was 33rd in the country in 23-24 in 3PTA%, taking 893 3PTA.
The Coach Howard effect? McNeese shot 35.4% from 3PT and averaged 7.5 made 3PT per game. The Cowboys averaged 21.2 3PT-A per game and so far, the Pack is averaging 34 3PT-A. (again, comparing a full season to 3 games) Talent (the Andrew Slater effect?) might have a just a little to do with that as well.
Conclusion 1: Shooting percentages will go down. (duh!) The number of 2PT made FG will increase and 3PT made will decrease trending more like the Nebraska model. But that doesnt mean the Pack still wont be a very good shooting team.
Conclusion 2: Coach Howard likes to shoot a lot of 3PT shots.
Nebraska had very good 3PT shooters
NC State has some too
Takeaways
Interesting parallels, both teams have five high percentage shooters that will (probably) take more than 100 3PT attempts on the season. Copeland has never taken more than 44 in a season; This new Q probably wont hit a 100 but should top his career high. Both teams have a big man that can, and will, hit them.
Conclusion 3: NC State has quality outside shooting all over the court, (and coming off the bench) at the PG, SG, Wing, and Forward.
Conclusion 4: This will force the defense to space out to stay closer to the shooters, allowing room to attack the interior. This benefits Williams and Copelands abilities to drive and hit the mid-range shot, as well as playing into another team strength, passing. This should mean an increase in interior, high percentage, scoring.
Conclusion 5: This should also benefit offensive rebounding.
Where is the Wolfpack offense going?
Were not really going to have a good idea before the end of the calendar year. By then we will have played 13 games, including doing the tournament in Maui, playing Auburn on the road, Kansas at home, and Ole Miss in Greensboro.
However, this is what the Packs points distribution looks like now.
By the time we get to March it might look a lot more like Nebraskas. However, Nebraska didnt start that season NEARLY as hot as the Wolfpack has this season. Maybe, like Coach Wade, were getting the best Coach Howard and the Pack will keep cooking?