It’s go time.
Small samples remaining in the seasonal calendar means big chances need to be taken. Yes, there’s still time to make up ground in your league’s championship race, but for it to happen, you’ll need bigger-than-usual performances from your players. Going merely for players’ usual expectations, or strictly by their projections, isn’t going to cut it.
That’s why a player’s upside, as well as his historical track record at this critical stage of the MLB season, is every bit as important as are rankings or projections. We need those surging stars — the Marcell Ozuna and Kyle Bradish types, to steal 2023’s best examples — in order to put us over the top.
Let’s identify the nine players with whom I’m going all-in on my fantasy teams. Every one of them seems primed for a strong finish, so it’s wise to do whatever you can to roster them in your league. That might mean trading for the player, if your league’s deadline hasn’t yet passed (such as in custom leagues), picking him up if available via free agency, or locking him into your starting lineup if you have him already.
The Braves have suffered massive bad luck with injuries and are facing a challenge merely to cling to a National League wild-card spot, which is why Olson’s production is so vital to their postseason chances. Fortunately, he has a history of torrid finishes, having hit 56 of his 251 career home runs in the month of September, with a .901 career OPS in the month that’s his best in any single month. Olsen’s recent improvement at the plate also signals a strong conclusion to his 2024, as he has eight homers in his past 23 games, with a .352 expected wOBA that’s within range of his .365 career number in the category.
Woo has pitched excellently around two injured list stints this season. He has averaged 13.6 fantasy points across his 15 starts. Only 18 pitchers have averaged more while making at least as many starts. Woo’s absences have diminished the worry about his seasonal workload — he totaled 131 innings last year, compared to 94 this season — and he’s an essential player in the Mariners’ hopes to reverse their recent swoon. He’s a near-equal talent to fellow rotation mates Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Logan Gilbert, even though his roster percentage pales in comparison.
After a miserable start, Carroll has turned his sophomore season around in a significant way, slugging .563 with 12 home runs and seven stolen bases in 41 games since the beginning of July — good for 148 fantasy points, seventh best among hitters. That will elevate his trade asking price, but appreciate just what Carroll has been and should still provide. Since July 1, his walk, contact, whiff and hard-hit rates are all better than they were in 2023, and his .222 BABIP says that he has actually been unlucky during the hot streak. He’ll play a critical part for a surging Diamondbacks offense down the stretch.
His first season back following patellar tendon surgery in his knee hasn’t gone quite as smoothly as his fantasy managers have hoped, including a two-week injured list stint for a right shoulder impingement in June and a 10-game suspension a few weeks after his return. However, since his return from suspension, Diaz seems to be turning a corner, going 7-for-8 converting his save chances with a 1.38 ERA and 36.7% strikeout rate in 13 appearances, thanks to a bit more fastball velocity and stronger performance from his slider. The Mets remain a wild-card contender, and Diaz will play a big part in that quest, delivering numbers that could challenge for best at his position going forward.
Seager has heated up in a big way of late, batting .261/.316/.681 with nine home runs and 18 RBIs in 17 games in August, but is this really that much of a surprise? Seager is one of the game’s most notable late-season performers, his 44 homers in September his most in any individual month. In four of his past five Septembers, he has hit at least six homers with a .855-plus OPS. He’s also a lifetime .254/.350/.508 hitter with 19 homers in 78 postseason games, including an NLCS and two World Series MVP awards. This underscores how much he saves his best hitting numbers for last. Sure, the Rangers (33-1) are distant long shots to make this year’s postseason, but nevertheless, Seager should finish the season on a high note.
Adding Williams might be going out a bit on a limb, considering he missed the first three months of the season with elbow soreness and has averaged only 6.8 fantasy points across his nine starts since activation. However, Williams could play a critical role for the playoff-hopeful Guardians. Outside of a pair of rocky outings facing challenging matchups (Aug. 4, vs. Baltimore Orioles; Aug. 16 at Milwaukee Brewers), he has pitched effectively, his average fastball velocity is up (96.8 mph, up more than a full mph from 2023) and he has generated 28% and 30% whiff rates with his curveball and slider. Williams has front-of-the-rotation raw stuff when it’s at its sharpest, and among lesser-known fantasy starting pitchers, he’s one of those who I’d most anticipate will finish the season strongly.
A rib cartilage tear cost Casas nearly four months, but let’s not forget the level of optimism fantasy managers had for him before he got hurt. Casas returned to action Friday, homered Tuesday for the first time since being activated and seems once again locked into an everyday role. He earned both of the Red Sox’s two starts against a left-hander since his return and last season had 86th-percentile barrel and 80th-percentile hard-hit rates, along with some of the best plate discipline in baseball. Casas is a sneaky 10-homer candidate and a top-10 fantasy first baseman going forward.
The Astros often have a way of squeezing the most out of their pitchers, and Kikuchi’s slight adjustments since joining the team hint that he might be one of the deadline’s best acquisitions (even if it came with one of the deadline’s steepest price tags). Kikuchi has gotten more spin on his fastball and has brought both his slider and changeup, which have historically been two of his better-performing pitches. Kikuchi has a 34.1% strikeout rate in his four starts for the Astros, largely thanks to his 34% slider usage, which is reminiscent of his 2023 second half (27.6 K%, 3.39 ERA).
Wood is quietly turning into a fantasy superstar, with a five-tool skill set that’s sure to be on full display through the season’s final month-plus. If Wood had the requisite plate appearances, he’d have 99th percentile hard-hit and 80th percentile Barrel rates, per Statcast, with well above-average plate discipline and raw speed metrics. He’s a .293/.380/.509 hitter in 29 games since the All-Star break, playing all but two innings during that time, and has already emerged as a middle-of-the-lineup force for the Nationals. Wood is still available in more than 70% of ESPN leagues.