Quilter Nations Series: England v New Zealand
Venue: Allianz Stadium, Twickenham Date: Saturday, 15 November Kick-off: 15:10 GMT
Coverage: Live on BBC Radio 5 Live and the BBC Sport website and app
Fade to (All) Black.
For a trilogy of England matches in 2024, the ending was always the same.
They played New Zealand three times in four months.
In Dunedin, England were two points ahead after 60 minutes. At Eden Park at the same point they were four clear. At Twickenham, the lead was eight.
On each occasion, they stalled and fell to defeat, failing to score again as the All Blacks outlasted them late on.
On Saturday, Steve Borthwick is determined to twist the tale.
In the boldest version yet of a ploy he has experimented with for the past nine months, the England coach has loaded his bench with star quality and Test nous.
Ellis Genge, Luke Cowan-Dickie and Will Stuart – all British and Irish Lions tourists this summer – are the front-row replacements, with the relatively green prop pairing of Fin Baxter and Joe Heyes starting.
Tom Curry, a back-row warlock who relishes the biggest occasion, is on the bench – as are Henry Pollock and Marcus Smith, perhaps the team’s two most recognisable faces.
The aim is to exploit their strength in depth and for the replacements to energise and guide a high-tempo England to victory in the final stages.
Ben Pollard has worked as a strength and conditioning coach with the Lions, England, Saracens and Stade Francais, along with many national teams in his current role with World Rugby.
“If you look at the outputs and the intensity that players are working at while the ball is in play, there is a slight drop from quarter one to quarter two, typically a slight spike after half-time, but then a slight drop from quarters three to four,” he told BBC Sport.
“The substitutes generally come on and almost buffer that fatigue, superseding the running outputs and the contacts per minute of ball in play.
“They help balance that out and effectively add energy and fill any gaps that tiring legs might be creating.
“When you’re asking players to play at the speed that England wants, it’s extremely physically demanding, but what’s brilliant about the England squad at the moment is that depth.
“When you have got that even spread of talent across the 23, why not bring as good a player on at 45 or 50 minutes?”
It is a ploy England first hit upon against France in February, the start of their current nine-Test winning streak.
In the 79th minute, Jamie George found Ollie Chessum with a line-out throw before a third replacement – Elliot Daly – hit a perfect line to go under the posts and snatch an upset win.
After a callow bench, averaging 10 caps each, had seen a lead slip against Ireland the previous week, it showed the value of having quality and experience to unload late on.
The lesson was learned. And the trick was repeated.
England have won every match since.
Only world champions South Africa have averaged more final-quarter points than England among top-tier nations so far this year.
Coming on strong after the hour, England have changed the rhythm of games.
Last autumn saw them wither in the closing stages.
This time around, admittedly against an inconsistent Australia and ninth-ranked Fiji, they have surged to comfortable victories with late pushes.
It isn’t just the scorelines that have changed either. The small print has too.
England’s carrying and set-piece both show a significant improvement as the ‘Pom Squad’ arrive on the scene.
A couple of factors have helped England in making this tactical shift.
Firstly, rugby’s calendar. The Lions tour of Australia sucked up 13 first-choice England players the summer. It meant youngsters and fringe players were given a shot in Argentina and repaid Bothwick with back-to-back Test wins.
Guy Pepper made his international debut. Baxter and Heyes started together for the first time. Alex Coles was in the XV for the first time in two and a half years. Tom Roebuck cemented his place as Test wing. Freddie Steward and George Ford, who had managed one appearance each in the Six Nations earlier in the year, gave reminders of their quality.
All seven start on Saturday.
Secondly, however the personnel are distributed across the matchday 23, there has been a sharper focus on how to take the initiative – psychologically, physiologically and strategically – in the closing stages.
David Priestley, a psychologist who has previously worked with Leicester and Saracens, as well as Premier League side Arsenal, has been sharpening mental processes under pressure.
Sam Underhill, a key man in England’s last win over New Zealand six years ago in the Rugby World Cup semi-finals, says communicating amid the sound and fury of a match’s crescendo is crucial.
“Obviously there’s a focus on every quarter of the game, but I think in terms of doing well towards the tail-end, there’s a lot to be said for tactical clarity,” he told Rugby Union Weekly.
“For a lot of guys, breathwork’s important when you get breaks in play and you want to get your mental clarity as quickly as possible.
“You want to get your heart rate down and thinking clearly.
“You also want to get messages across to each other.
“Key decision-makers and key leaders in areas – defensive and attacking – will have the attention of the group.
“You don’t have an awful lot of time, you can’t say loads, so it’s about being as clear and concise as possible.
“What helps is your understanding in the week – what you want to do and how you want to do it
“The more understanding we have and the clearer we are as a group, the easier it is then for the decision-makers to tap into the things that we’ve learned in the week, as to what specifically our focus is going to be for maybe that play, or the next five or 10 minutes.”
England are not unique in backloading their matchday squad with a powerful bench.
South Africa’s ‘Bomb Squad’ – a destructive set of front-five replacements who apply pressure at the scrum – are the most famous example. The All Blacks themselves go into Saturday’s game with Wallace Sititi and Damian McKenzie ready to tear up broken field.
But Borthwick is backing the depth of his own squad to keep England in the game initially, sink the opposition late on and assuage any doubts about the likes of Curry and Genge being restricted to a minority of the minutes.
For critics, the logic is flawed. For them, the influence of big-hitting late replacements at the back end of matches is out-weighed by the benefits of having them on the pitch earlier and longer.
Their belief is that England’s victories over Australia and Fiji may have already been assured by the hour mark had Borthwick opted for a more conventional line-up.
But if England can out-kick the All Blacks in a sprint finish that would be thrilling and compelling evidence for the new way of thinking.