EAGAN, Minn. — It’s almost time for the debut of J.J. McCarthy: Take 2.
The Minnesota Vikings quarterback got a quick two-game taste of the NFL this season before a high right ankle sprain sidelined him for five games. While he was out, a debate raged: Had he been too inexperienced to open the season as the Vikings’ starter? Should they have re-signed 2024 starter Sam Darnold or late-2024 addition Daniel Jones, or perhaps inked free agent Aaron Rodgers?
After all, McCarthy had produced one magical quarter — accounting for three touchdowns in a Week 1 comeback victory over the Chicago Bears — and seven shaky quarters in his two-game stint. By the end of it, his 20.3 QBR ranked No. 32 of 33 qualified quarterbacks in the NFL.
The team seemed to express its own doubt, albeit indirectly, by making clear he would not return until he was fully healthy. In essence, coach Kevin O’Connell decided McCarthy wasn’t equipped to compensate for the injury while also trying to develop in real time.
McCarthy missed three weeks of practice, began to ramp up during the Vikings’ bye and then spent two weeks in purgatory as their emergency No. 3 quarterback — cleared by doctors but not yet ready to give the team its best chance to win. That assignment fell to backup Carson Wentz, who played his final 2 1/2 games with a left shoulder injury that will require season-ending surgery.
With Wentz on injured reserve, McCarthy will get a chance to address those debates on the field. This week, he called the opportunity “a little bit of a reset, but just coming from a different perspective.”
Here are five data points that will shape his progress — or lack thereof — beginning with Sunday’s game at the Detroit Lions (1 p.m. ET, Fox).
At this point, the single most important factor in McCarthy’s development is getting reps, both in practice and games. The ankle injury, along with a torn meniscus in his right knee which cost him his entire rookie season, have cost him 23 of a possible 25 games, including postseason. Incredibly, he has participated in only two full weeks of regular-season practice since the Vikings made him the No. 10 pick in the 2024 draft.
McCarthy has 41 passes and 95 offensive snaps on his NFL résumé. The other five quarterbacks selected in the first round of the 2024 draft have each thrown at least 300 passes, and their collective average is 625. Spencer Rattler, selected by the New Orleans Saints in the fifth round, has thrown 484 times. Since the start of 2024, 62 NFL quarterbacks have thrown more passes than McCarthy.
To be fair, McCarthy — at 22 years and nine months — is younger than all but one of those 62 quarterbacks. The New York Giants’ Jaxson Dart is 22 and five months.
McCarthy’s clock has only begun to tick. Although it’s almost too obvious to say, it bears repeating: He has to play — a lot — to get where the Vikings hope he can go.
McCarthy will increase his chances of staying on the field if he can reduce contact with opposing defenders.
Both of his injuries, in Week 2 against the Atlanta Falcons and during the 2024 preseason against the Las Vegas Raiders, came when he left the pocket on a scramble. The Vikings don’t want to discourage him from using a key part of his skill set, but there are plenty of ways — sliding, most notably — to limit being hit.
McCarthy took nine sacks in 75 dropbacks during his first two starts, a 16.7% sack rate that is higher than all but one quarterback who has taken at least 10 dropbacks this season (Carolina’s Andy Dalton, 17.4%). To be fair, he played both games without left tackle Christian Darrisaw, who was in the final stages of recovery from a left knee injury.
Overall, though, McCarthy absorbed a contact rate of 32.3%, fourth highest in the league. Taking those levels of hits isn’t a recipe for longevity.
Another way of avoiding hits in the pocket is to throw the ball more quickly.
In his first two starts, McCarthy averaged 3.15 seconds before throwing, which is longer than all but two quarterbacks who have attempted a pass this season. He was not necessarily to blame in every instance, and it should be noted that he played both games without No. 2 wide receiver Jordan Addison, who was serving a three-game NFL suspension, after developing clear chemistry with McCarthy during practice.
But in the same offense, Wentz averaged 2.71 seconds before throwing. McCarthy himself noticed the difference.
“[McCarthy’s] made multiple comments to me just throughout the rehab,” O’Connell said, “about being able to watch Carson play the position, play it as a new player in our offense and see ways he was able to distribute football, get the ball out of his hands, completions and the positive effect that had on the offense in every capacity.”
McCarthy said in training camp that he considers himself “one of the most accurate guys out there,” but that was not immediately evident this summer or during his two regular-season games. His 58.5 completion percentage is the ninth lowest of 58 quarterbacks who have thrown a pass this season.
He wasn’t responsible for every incompletion. In fact, ESPN Research docked Vikings receivers for three drops in his 41 attempts. That’s a rate of 7.3%, third highest among any quarterback who has thrown a pass this season.
But McCarthy’s rate of off-target passes — overthrown or underthrown, not including obvious throwaways or spikes — is 14.6%. That ranks No. 22 in the NFL.
Vikings coaches believe the issue is largely one of footwork and other fundamentals, and O’Connell and quarterbacks coach Josh McCown put McCarthy through a series of workouts during the bye designed to re-establish the timing and rhythm of his drops and progressions.
From the moment he was drafted, McCarthy’s single most obvious attribute is his energy. Receiver Justin Jefferson has referred to it as a “dog mentality,” a contagious personality trait that demonstrates his competitiveness and relentless positivity. Greg Holcomb, his longtime private coach, said this summer of McCarthy: “He’s almost, like, too happy sometimes. It can almost look obnoxious.”
That energy was most evident during the fourth quarter of the Bears game in Week 1, and O’Connell referenced it this week, noting McCarthy had carried momentum “into the locker room, where it was a pretty significant moment for a young player in his first start.”
McCarthy will need to maintain that trait during what could be a difficult stretch for the entire team. The Vikings have the NFL’s most difficult remaining schedule, and ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) has them favored to win one more game on it — Week 11 against the Bears.
McCarthy has won 64 of 68 starts dating back to high school, and he could match that loss total even if the Vikings beat the odds over the next three months.