There were hits and misses on the Week 12 sleeper page, like any other week. Luke Schoonmaker, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Roschon Johnson had touchdowns and Will Dissly was solid, as usual. We like that. But Quentin Johnston toasted a bagel on Monday (so many soul-crushing drops) and there were some other bricks.
Here’s hoping you don’t need a lot of sleepers in your Week 13 lineups. All 32 NFL clubs are in action this week and you are probably jostling for playoff position. The stakes are rising. But if injuries or underperformance have bitten you, perhaps some of these names can help out.
At this stage of the game, we know what Edwards is a two-down pounder who offers almost nothing in the pass game. However, he’s going to be the first look at the goal line with J.K. Dobbins (knee) set to miss time, and the Falcons present a rushing defense that’s slightly below average in most metrics. Edwards probably needs a touchdown to pay off his projection, but I’d give him a better than 50% chance to get that score here.
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Here’s another back who’s shown nothing in the pass game (just two receptions), but McNichols has been efficient when asked to carry the ball (in a mild surprise, his success rate is actually slightly higher than Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler). You’ll have to do your injury diligence with Washington this week, with Robinson dealing with an ankle injury and Ekeler in the concussion protocol. If both of them can’t go, McNichols is in play against an average Tennessee rushing defense.
Here’s your Black Friday special, a pass-catching specialist who might see a favorable game script against the heavily favored Chiefs (assuming Alexander Mattison and Zamir White are unavailable again). Abdullah’s rushing skills are modest, but he’s posted a useful 8-53-2 role in the passing game the last two weeks. Let Kansas City build a lead and watch Abdullah peck away with those receptions, especially fun if your league has any PPR component in the scoring.
Bo Nix isn’t the only rookie winner in Denver; Vele’s role continues to expand and he’s been impressive. Vele is coming off his busiest and most productive game of the year (6-80-0, nine targets) and the Monday draw is favorable, up against a Cleveland secondary that’s allowed the fifth-most points to opposing wide receivers. Boundary specialist Courtland Sutton is the undeniable alpha in the Denver passing game, but Vele will probably see a target share of 20% or higher in this spot.
One of the biggest fantasy stories from Week 12 was the emergence of Bryce Young, who looked poised and in control against the intimidating Kansas City defense. Young wasn’t fazed by the blitz packages and made several on-target throws despite challenging pressure. It appears the Panthers knew what they were doing when they gave Young a temporary benching; he’s looked like a different player since the return.
This means we can start attacking the Carolina receiver room with some level of confidence. Thielen’s resume probably makes him the more comfortable sleeper play, off a solid 3-57-0 line in his return from injury, but we also have to note Moore saw heavy usage in the Kansas City game (6-81-1) and drew a team-best 10 targets. The Buccaneers play a lot of shootouts, with a capable offense and a leaky secondary. Perhaps the Panthers can uphold their end of the bargain.
Some fantasy managers didn’t want to hold MVS through the bye week and I get it, given his history of inconsistent performance. And even in two smash games, they’ve come with limited volume just seven targets led to his 5-196-3 line the past two games. The hope is that Valdez-Scantling will make one big play to justify your faith, and at least there’s little downfield competition in this offense. The Rams secondary has been a plus matchup for most of 2024.
It’s becoming a cut-and-paste case with NWI, a low-target player who somehow has scored in 6-of-7 games. NWI is seeing snap shares over 90% each week in the aftermath of the DeAndre Hopkins trade, making him the second-most important target in his offense. I’m not afraid to dial him up against an average Washington defense; the Commanders are heavy favorites, which could push Tennessee into a more proactive passing game.
I’m surprised his roster tag has remained so low, after Schoonmaker gave us 6-56-0 and 3-55-1 in consecutive weeks. Cooper Rush has been a competent quarterback in both games, and the Cowboys aren’t likely to have Jake Ferguson on Thanksgiving. There’s a good chance Schoonmaker will be the second read in the Dallas offense, the guy to look for when CeeDee Lamb isn’t open. New York’s tight end coverage has been strong this year, although it hasn’t faced a difficult schedule. Ferguson did get them for seven catches back in Week 4.