Fantasy football sit-and-start advice should always be relative and league-dependent. Many starts and sits are obvious too, so we will instead focus on fringe options in this column, the ones that take real thought. Good luck with your Week 11 lineups!
Jacobs remains due for further touchdown regression, and he gets a run-funnel Chicago defense this week. The Bears have allowed the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks but the eighth-most RB rushing yards per game (111.6). Caleb Williams dramatic struggles (the Bears have gone 23 straight drives without a touchdown) could help lead to a positive game script, as Green Bay enters 5.5-point favorites. Jacobs has averaged 100.0 yards from scrimmage and scored all four of his touchdowns during wins this season.
Montgomery has been quieter during a tougher stretch of schedule over the last four games, but his upcoming matchups look highly favorable, starting Sunday. Jacksonville has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs and enter as 14-point underdogs with Mac Jones starting. The Lions have the highest implied team total (30.5 points) this week, and game script should lead to a ton of carries.
Smiths snap share dropped a bit Monday night, but he was second on Miami in receiving yards and nearly scored a touchdown while being tackled at the one. Smith is tied for second on the Dolphins in first-read target% over five games with Tua Tagovailoa this season. Smith leads all tight ends in first downs per route run, which is one of the best future indicators. Las Vegas has yielded the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends and is a pass-funnel defense. Raiders opponents have the second-highest pass rate over expectation (+4.4%) this season.
Tagovailoa ranks 36th in deep-throw attempt rate (7.7%) and sports the lowest average intended air yards (5.4) among all quarterbacks this season. Thats been bad news for Tyreek Hill, but Smith has benefitted and can be started in fantasy lineups.
Maye leads the NFL in QB rush yards, scrambles and scramble yards since taking over as New Englands starter. Hes averaged more yards per scramble (10.8) than Jayden Daniels while ranking top 10 in Hero Throw rate and Off-Target throw rate. The Rams have allowed just 72.8 rushing yards and zero touchdowns to running backs since Week 5, but Los Angeles has ceded the second-most YPA (8.4).
The Rams have the leagues third best pressure rate, but Mayes fantasy production has actually increased when pressured this season; the rookie has the fourth-most fantasy points per dropback when pressured. Maye is a sneaky fantasy start if needed this week.
Chubb may not be the player he once was, but hes seen 75% of Clevelands RB carries over three games since returning. Hes faced three tough run defenses that rank top eight in RB fantasy points allowed, but Chubb gets a much more favorable matchup this week. The Browns are (minor) favorites against a Saints defense allowing the third-most fantasy points to running backs. And most of the damage has come via the ground not by receiving backs, as New Orleans has yielded 5.2 YPC and the third-most rushing scores (14). Chubb could also be healthier coming out of his bye, so he belongs in fantasy lineups.
Subscribe to Yahoo Fantasy Forecast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube or wherever you listen.
Wilson has averaged 8.7 YPA, 245.7 passing yards and 2.0 touchdowns over three starts this season. Hes fantasys QB7 in points per game on the year, and he gets a prime pass-funnel matchup this week. Baltimore has ceded the second-fewest RB rushing yards per game (56.8) but the second-most fantasy points to QBs. Ravens opponents have the highest PROE (+6.8%) by a wide margin. Wilson is a top-10 QB this week in a fast-paced matchup against a carnival opponent.
Sit Najee Harris, whos losing touches to Jaylen Warren and gets a tough matchup. Harris remains Pittsburghs lead back, but hes played fewer than 50% of the snaps in three of four games since Warren returned, though Warren is notably questionable with a back injury. The Ravens have ceded an NFL-low 3.4 YPC, so Harris expectations should be tempered this week.
Pollards snap share dropped to 53% during Tyjae Spears return last week, including splitting snaps evenly in the red zone. Pollards route participation (45%) was his lowest since Week 1. He remained limited by his foot injury in Thursdays practice, and Pollard has a tough matchup this week. Minnesota has allowed the fourth-fewest YPC (3.8) and the second-fewest touchdown runs (four) this season. Tennessee has a lowly 17.5-point implied team total, so explore alternatives to Pollard if possible.
Downs had his best fantasy game of the season with Anthony Richardson, but Indys QB switch is still a downgrade. Downs targets per game drop from 10.0 with Joe Flacco to 6.5 with Richardson this season, and his receptions per game fall from 7.3 to 4.0. Volume and accuracy are issues, as is this weeks matchup. The Jets have allowed the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season, including the sixth-fewest to the slot.
New Yorks defense has unquestionably fallen since firing Robert Saleh (they missed a mere 20 tackles last week), but the Jets have yielded just one passing TD over the last three games. Michael Pittman Jr. has also returned to a full practice this week. Downs deserves bench consideration with Richardson back starting in an outdoor matchup against a strong secondary.
Nix has been the QB7 in fantasy points per game since Week 4, averaging nearly as many fantasy points (20.4) as Josh Allen (20.7) over that six-game span. After attempting seven passes inside the 10-yard line over his first seven games, Nix has 11 over his last three. Nix ranks fourth among all quarterbacks in carries inside the five and expected fantasy points this season, behind only Jalen Hurts, Brock Purdy and Lamar Jackson.
The Broncos get a Falcons defense allowing the 10th-fewest fantasy points to running backs but the seventh-most to quarterbacks. Denver has a big advantage up front (LT Garrett Bolles hasnt given up a single pressure over the last four weeks) against an Atlanta front that just became the first defense in the Super Bowl era to fail to record 10 sacks over its first 10 games.
Nix is a borderline top-five QB in a fast-paced matchup this week.
Jennings led San Francisco in routes run, targets, catches, air yards and receiving yards during his first game without Brandon Aiyuk last week. He had the leagues sixth-highest first-read target share (38.5%), and Brock Purdy owns the leagues fourth-best Passer Rating (134.5) when targeting Jennings. He ranks second in the NFL in yards per route run, eighth in fantasy points per route run and 10th among 117 pass catchers in ESPNs Receiving Score.
Jennings owns a 32% TPRR with Aiyuk off the field, and hes now replaced BA as the 49ers X receiver. Jennings erupted for 41 fantasy points in Week 3 with Deebo Samuel Sr. out the only other game in which hes acted as SFs WR2. Jennings isnt Terrell Owens 2.0, but he can clearly play; hell now see a much bigger opportunity on a potent offense due for major red-zone regression.
Jennings ranks second in yards per route run versus press coverage, which Seattle uses at the leagues fifth-highest rate. The Seahawks have ceded the 10th-most fantasy points to wide receivers, and the 49ers are projected to score 28.5 points this week. Jennings suffered a reportedly mild ankle sprain in practice Thursday, so monitor his status. Should Jennings sit, Ricky Pearsall becomes a top-25 WR this week.
Hunt has just one explosive rush (15+ yards) over 125 carries and will lose touches once Isiah Pacheco returns, but he has Kansas Citys backfield to himself once again Sunday. Hunt leads the league in touches per game (24.6) since entering the starting lineup in Week 5, and hes also the RB1 in expected fantasy points. Hunt saw 10 targets last week, and hes been given a whopping 13 opportunities inside the 5-yard line over the last four games. Hes a true workhorse in a Patrick Mahomes offense.
Hunt gets a Buffalo defense allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks but the second-most to running backs this season, including the most targets (8.4) and receiving yards (54.5) per game. Hunt is a top-10 RB this week.
Herbert is getting a career-high 7.8 YPA with an 11:1 TD:INT ratio, but volume has been a problem for his fantasy production. The Chargers rank 30th in pass plays per game thanks to a favorable schedule thats been loaded with low projected totals. Los Angeles has run just three plays all season while trailing by double digits. But L.A.’s upcoming matchups should feature more shootouts, starting Sunday.
The Bengals have allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points to running backs but the fifth-most to quarterbacks. Joe Burrow is playing well and should finally provide pushback in a matchup with a 47.5-point total. The Chargers are one of just nine teams with a positive pass rate over expectation over the last month, as Los Angeles has thrown decidedly more since its bye.
Herbert is a borderline top-five QB this week.
Cooper Rush lost as many fumbles (2.0) as he got yards per pass attempt while replacing Dak Prescott last week. It was the fewest passing yards in a game with at least 20 attempts since 2015. Rush finished with a completion percentage over expectation (-13.5) in the eighth percentile despite an average depth of target of just 6.4 yards (18th percentile). Dallas had 49 net passing yards on 26 attempts. And Trey Lance is apparently even worse while remaining QB2.
Dowdle should see all the touches he can handle; his competition is a 29-year-old Ezekiel Elliott whos getting 3.2 YPC and lost a fumble into the end zone last week. But hes saddled by Dallas offense and gets a Houston defense yielding the fifth-fewest fantasy points to running backs. The Cowboys have trailed by double digits for a league-high 42.4% of their offensive snaps and are 7.5-point underdogs, so game script could also be a problem for Dowdle on Monday night.
Ferguson has the second most targets (57) without catching a touchdown in the league. The tight end struggled to convert RZ looks into scores last season and now has Rush as his QB, so TD regression may not be coming. The Cowboys have a lowly 17.5-point implied total this week, and the Texans have allowed NFL-lows in receptions per game (2.7) and receiving yards per game (24.7!) against tight ends this season. Ferguson sports just a 16% target share over his last four games, so he belongs on fantasy benches Monday night.