Another week, another round of crucially important start/sit decisions. To help you make them, here’s a look at six players with bust potential in Week 11.
Something to keep in mind as you’re reading: a “fade” or “bust” designation doesn’t automatically mean you should sit a player, depending on the depth of the rest of your roster or available options on your waiver wire.
Kirk Cousins has had a solid bounce-back season coming off a ruptured Achilles that ended his 2023 campaign. Through 10 weeks, he ranks as fantasy’s QB10, ranked third in passing yards (2,634) and tied for the fourth-most passing touchdowns (17) a great fit so far with WRs Drake London and Darnell Mooney, TE Kyle Pitts and RB Bijan Robinson in the passing game.
But his opponent this week, the Broncos, are tied for the third-lowest EPA per pass attempt (-0.21) while ranking fourth in the league with a 39.2% pressure rate and the second-highest sack total in the league (35), only behind the New York Giants. Per PFF, Cousins has had the sixth-highest turnover-worthy play rate among QBs with 25+ pressured dropbacks this season at 7.3%, throwing for 5 TDs and 7 INTs on such plays.
Heat check Kirk Cousins belongs on most fantasy benches this week outside of two-QB and Superflex leagues.
The Pittsburgh Steelers’ run game has come alive in recent weeks after a relatively slow start this season, thanks in a big way to RB Najee Harris heating up down the stretch (as is typical for him historically).
Unfortunately, there are some reasons to pump the breaks on Harris’ upside for fantasy heading into Week 11. Just last week, he snapped a three-game streak of 100+ rushing yards in Week 10 (the first such streak of his career) against a Commanders defense that has been fairly friendly toward the run, averaging just 2.5 yards per attempt on 21 carries. Meanwhile, teammate Jaylen Warren saw 14 total carries tied for the second-most he’s ever seen in a single game, another week removed from a knee injury that’s plagued him since Week 3.
This week, Harris will not only have to overcome questions about the workload split between him and Warren but also face a challenging matchup against the Baltimore Ravens one of the league’s top rushing defenses through 10 weeks of the season. The Ravens are allowing a league-low 3.4 rush yards per play, allowing the fewest runs of 10+ yards, giving up the fewest yards after contact per attempt (2.21) while allowing the third-lowest EPA per rush attempt -0.18.
Where the Ravens have been most susceptible to opposing RBs this year is in the receiving game, having allowed the third-most receiving yards (470) to the position all season fitting, as teams are often in the position to play catch-up against the Ravens’ highly potent offense. Even if the Steelers’ defense is able to slow Lamar Jackson and Co. down, it’s a game script that could favor Warren. In Week 10, Warren ran 15 routes, while Harris ran just seven a trend that will likely continue now that Warren is healthier.
Heat check Consider Harris more of a boom/bust, touchdown-dependent fantasy asset this week than a must-start. Warren, meanwhile, warrants consideration as a flex option, especially in full-PPR scoring formats.
It is challenging to envision fading a running back that has had 20 or more touches over three of his past five games and scored in all but three outings so far in 2024. However, with a matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 11, fantasy football managers should be bracing themselves for a boom/bust performance that falls outside of Cook’s typically safe floor.
In Week 11, the Bills will host the Kansas City Chiefs, who have been right alongside the Ravens in terms of their ability to shut down the run this season. They are giving up a league-low 12.01 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs. They’re the only defense to have given up fewer than 500 rushing yards to opposing backs, allowing the fourth-lowest EPA per rush attempt (-0.16) and the second-lowest yards per play average (3.7). Up against a similarly skilled rushing defense in the Baltimore Ravens in Week 4, the Bills were wildly outpaced, leaving Cook with just 48 yards on 10 total touches (0 TDs) for an RB44 finish on the day.
Heat check Start Cook as the top running back in a highly potent Bills offense that could see plenty of scoring, but be wary that this could be an inefficient spot that could render him a rather volatile asset this week.
I didn’t have to reach very far for this Week 11 fade, but it felt necessary to say just this once you are not obligated to start DJ Moore (or any other Bears receiver, for that matter) until this team finds some sort of identity. The team has officially moved on from former OC Shane Waldron, but it will likely take more than a new play collar to undo the damage that has been done and the regression the offense has seen since coming out of there by week.
Moore is a good wide receiver who many will feel implored to start due to his name value, but he has failed to clear more than 33 receiving yards in each of his last four games, finishing outside of the top 50 at his position in each of those games. His floor is simply too low to be trusted in even the most dire of situations. This week, the Bears will host the Green Bay Packers a unit that ranks top-10 in average time to pressure and has been one of the most productive defenses in terms of forcing turnovers (18 total on the year). This could be another ugly one for the entire Bears offense, outside of RB D’Andre Swift.
Heat check Do. Not. Start. I’m begging you.
Atlanta Falcons WR Drake London has thrived with new QB Kirk Cousins, scoring as the overall WR4 in fantasy through the first 10 weeks of the season, having totaled the fifth-most receptions (58) and eighth-most receiving yards (649) while ranking third in the position in total touchdowns. That all sounds fine and dandy until you put it up against the vaunted Denver Broncos defense, however. The biggest problem on that defense for London? All-Pro cornerback, Patrick Surtain II.
Here’s a look at some of Surtain II’s advanced stats in coverage and where that ranks among CBs to play at least 200 coverage snaps this season:
Simply put, Surtain isn’t targeted often in coverage because he’s so efficient when opposing QBs try to make it happen. WRs DK Metcalf, George Pickens, Mike Evans and Garrett Wilson managed just 15.6 fantasy points combined against this defense in big part, thanks to Surtain’s ability to lockdown perimeter receivers.
Heat check London isn’t a must-start in Week 11 if you have better options, though most rosters probably don’t have the luxury to sit him. Though Zay Flowers found some success against this defense in Week 10, most of that production came out of the slot, having played a season-low 47.1% of snaps on the perimeter in that game. If London does primarily work along the outside, he’s likely in line for a quiet afternoon.
There aren’t many tight ends you can afford to fade on any given week, but given the current state of Jacksonville’s offense, a warning about a potential decrease in production for Evan Engram seems warranted. They’ll be without starting quarterback Trevor Lawrence again this week he’s dealing with a shoulder injury which means it’s Mac Jones at the helm once again going up against the Detroit Lions.
The Lions are allowing the ninth-lowest EPA per dropback on slot + inline targets, giving up plenty of yardage in coverage of these areas of the field but little scoring (4 TD, 6 INT) in such coverage, resulting in the second-fewest fantasy points per game given up to opposing tight ends. They’ve allowed just one touchdown to the position all season, which doesn’t bode well for a passing offense that didn’t manage a single passing touchdown just last week, as Jones totaled just 139 passing yards on 22 attempts while also throwing two interceptions.
Heat check Given Engram’s role in the offense as a primary slot target when Christian Kirk is out, you’ll be hard-pressed to find many options you’d prefer over Engram in this economy. However, it could be a bumpy outing if Engram doesn’t see significant volume.