Each week, fantasy football analyst Joel Smyth goes through 10 storylines that will define the week. After three high-powered weeks, how will the trends of fantasy football define Week 4?
How does the change from Russell Wilson to Jaxson Dart affect the Giants in fantasy? In terms of quarterback style, they are closer to polar opposites than they are identical. Darts usage at Ole Miss included a little more rushing and quick game compared to Wilson, ranking third in deep throw percentage.
The best news for Malik Nabers may come in how consistently hell be targeted. Last season, Nabers led the NFL in first-read target shares, the opposite of Wilsons play style, which tends to go deep into his progression when reading the defense. Through three weeks, that tendency for Wilson became even more extreme, ranking last in throws to his first read. As a young rookie quarterback in a different system, Id expect that first-read target percentage to rise, which is a bigger boost for Nabers than any other WR in the league.
Cam Skattebo is a more neutral change, in my opinion. The rushing work of Dart can open up some more room for him between the tackles, as dual-threat quarterbacks will always help yards before contact for RBs. The receiver, however, is hard to get any better than Wilson, who checks down at an extremely high rate. Dart himself is a good stash in most leagues. A young unknown with rushing upside? The process is staring us in the face. The easiest example is Bo Nix or Drake Maye last season, who were borderline QB1s as starters in 2024.
In his first two career games, Matthew Golden ran a route on 64% of plays. But with no Jayden Reed in Week 3, that jumped to 84%. The Browns’ defense shut down Green Bay, making his four-reception, 52 receiving yard game (with three carries) a little better. The matchup wont be an excuse this week.
For years, we have dealt with the Packers having 27 different WR2s, with none ever being a consistent fantasy start. Week 4 versus Dallas can break that. The Cowboys’ 41 fantasy PPG allowed to WRs in 2025 is plenty enough to be ranked last. Goldens primary cover corner will be Kaiir Elam, the DB ranked last in fantasy points per route allowed this season. Star fantasy rookies take advantage of veteran injuries. Weve already seen it with Emeka Egbuka and Omarion Hampton; Golden has to show me something this week.
In his final game of 2024, Michael Penix Jr. had his career high of 312 passing yards versus Carolina. Three games later, Penixs Falcons lost 30-0 against that same Panthers team, resulting in him getting benched mid-game. Multiple top fantasy assets are relying on the Falcons QB to turn it around, and fast. His catchable target rate has dropped to the fourth-lowest rate in 2025, even with his average depth of throw lowering significantly.
One of the bigger flaws in the young quarterbacks game has been throwing in the middle of the field. Dan Quinns Washington defense runs plenty of one-high safety looks, helping Penix focus on his more natural throws outside the numbers rather than over the middle. With Marshon Lattimore sticking to one side of the field, Drake London should escape him on 75% of plays based on their route alignment. The Atlanta offensive coordinator moving from the box to the field is another sign they are ready to make active changes to figure out this slow start. The hope is that we get some easy throws for Penix to get in a rhythm and then start attacking downfield.
Everything for Drake London is still set up perfectly outside of the quarterback play. If Penix cant show signs of improvement in Week 4, the real panic begins with the Falcons offense.
The Houston offense has been under fire, not on fire. It may not fix everything for the Texans, but Christian Kirk returning to the lineup can cause an under-the-radar boost in fantasy football. In games with Stefon Diggs playing out of the slot in 2024, Nico Collins averaged 22.4 fantasy PPG with over 10 targets per game. Once Diggs went down to injury, that fell to 14.8 PPG.
Giving a short area target for C.J. Stroud inside can pull defenders’ focus just slightly enough away from Collins. When Kirk returned last week, Collins saw better fantasy production than the first two weeks combined. One game can be a fluke, but two is a trend. If Collins gets going again versus Tennessee, my hope in him returning to being a top-2 fantasy WR when healthy, such as in 2024, will be restored.
I would say Omarion Hampton broke out as an NFL running back last Sunday, but this week, he can break out as a fantasy RB1. So far, the New York Giants have played Washington, Dallas and Kansas City. AKA no top-level running backs. Yet, theyve allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to the position.
Even with Najee Harris receiving six carries before his Achilles injury, Hampton had the sixth-best volume among fantasy RBs in Week 3. The Chargers’ defense has been suffocating so far. It may be a welcome to the NFL moment for Jaxson Dart, whose first NFL start is now against the Los Angeles defense, ranked second in pass yards per attempt.
Hampton is not only getting both the rushing and receiving work, but has all but one of the Chargers RB touches in the red zone. We have a first-round talent on a great offense, with top-five RB potential and an amazing matchup. Lets get the hype train moving.
When I made the RB Volume vs. Scoring video this week, the biggest surprise was Travis Etienne Jr. ranking 24th in volume. How could this be? Because the most valuable touches in fantasy are at the goal line and in receiving.
Its not all bad, but if anything, Id classify it as annoying. Last season, Liam Coens running backs were fourth and fifth in designed RB targets, a thing of beauty. That has translated over to Etienne, who leads the league with six designed targets. The issue is thats all hes getting. Trevor Lawrence checked it down twice to Etienne in Week 1 and hasnt once since. When Etienne was an RB1 in 2023, he saw 41 targets outside of screens alone. Two is simply not enough. Especially when he isnt getting goal-line work along with it.
It is an extremely small sample size of one; however, its enough for me to consider Bhayshul Tuten the goal line back over Etienne. My reason is that Tuten was not on the field prior to the that play. Last Sunday, Jacksonville forced a pass interference to put them at the 1-yard line of Houston. Between Tuten and Etienne, Tuten was the one who jogged on the field for the first and goal carry from the one to punch it in. If things dont improve on the volume side in Week 4 and beyond, Etiennes RB9 scoring rank may slip closer to his RB24 volume soon. San Francisco’s heavy zone coverage defense allows for those checkdown targets to running backs, making this week a good indicator of the future.
It’s Week 1 in 2024, youre a Derrick Henry fantasy manager panicking about him opening the season with 46 scrimmage yards versus Kansas City. That fear quickly wore off, but has since returned to begin 2025. Good news, the dominant Kansas City run defense from 2024 doesnt seem to have stuck around. Through three games, the Chiefs rank 29th in run defense success rate and 23rd in yards before contact allowed. Year in and year out, the Baltimore Ravens lead in offensive yards before contact thanks to the dual-threat ability of Lamar Jackson, providing plenty of hope for Henry to bounce back in Week 4.
On the negative end, has the Ravens offense changed alongside this Chiefs defense? In 2024, the Ravens playcalling never crossed +6% in pass rate over expected, which is, on average, a top-10 pass-heavy week for a team. Zero times in 17 games. We’re through three weeks and theyve done it twice already. Is this Ravens team ready to lean more on their MVP quarterback’s arm? If Henrys woes continue in Week 4 on the biggest stage, the worry starts to become panic.
Over the first two weeks, DeVon Achane saw 86% of the RB carries. In Week 3, 57%. Only 12 of the 21 carries as Ollie Gordon II made his presence known. More importantly, Week 3 was the first time we saw a goal-line attempt in this Miami offense, where both went to Gordon over Achane. Its sneakily a big hit to Achanes value, as he received 14 goal-line attempts, the 12th-most in the NFL last season.
So far 75% of Achanes fantasy points have come from receiving alone in PPR leagues. That cannot stay the same for an entire season if Achane were to repeat his 2024 results, or even his results over these first few weeks. If Gordons usage continues in Week 4, the overall RB1 upside of Achane is all but gone.
One more panic stat on goal-line usage. This one is a big one with Chuba Hubbard. The Panthers have had plenty of goal-line snaps over this first month, with 10 in three games. Hubbard has played in six of those plays, but has yet to have a single carry. Five routes and one pass blocking. On all three carries at the goal line, the Panthers have called Rico Dowdles number.
Dowdle hasnt taken a ton of work in totality, but goal-line usage is huge not only in general, but specifically for Hubbard. In 2024, the Carolina RB led the NFL with 1.4 goal-line attempts per game. If 20% of his fantasy points from last season are gone with the wind, where does that leave the fantasy RB1 we saw at the end of 2024?
I would describe the Bengals’ offensive play-calling as inconsistent. Weve seen horrible weeks from them in the past, followed by incredible games the very next Sunday. The confidence in this current offense is on the floor with a Denver defense that has the perception of being scary for RBs. However, in a small sample size in 2025, the Broncos are in the bottom 10 versus fantasy running backs this season.
The main issue with Brown was the offensive line and the lack of space before contact. That is an area where Denver is still elite, ranking inside the top five in yards before contact allowed this season. The Bengals are running a large majority in the “A” and “B” gaps, as Brown ranks third in inside carries and 24th in outside carries. The offense needs to be more creative in how they are getting Brown the ball outside of slamming him up the middle and giving him one screen over three games. If Monday night comes around and we dont see that play-calling turn things around, my confidence in Brown paying off his volume will continue to fall.