Each week, fantasy football analyst Joel Smyth goes through 10 storylines that will define the week. After six weeks of injuries, turmoil, and breakouts, how will the trends of fantasy football define Week 7?
Youve waited six weeks; now its time. Rashee Rice was the WR1 through three weeks in 2024 on a Chiefs offense ranked ninth in pass rate over expected. In 2025, Kansas City ranks first. Rices supreme volume from last year has a great shot of returning, as no Chiefs player has above a 20% target share.
Upside is the key to fantasy football, and its what separates Rice from other WRs in his fantasy trade range. Hes coming off an LCL injury, has a low sample of elite production and zero games played in 2025. The risk is there, but a fantasy WR1 is much different than an overall WR1. Since Week 12 of 2023, Rice is the WR2, averaging 19.5 fantasy PPG in PPR.
Travis Kelce was the main victim of Rices success from that point. With Rice breaking out, Kelces targets per game dropped to six. Worthy moves more to boom-bust territory as his 20% target share is likely the highest it reaches with Rice returning. A large portion of Worthys success at the end of 2024 came from designed targets, an area that Rice ranked second in the NFL prior to his season-ending injury. Rices ceiling is undeniable, but it may come at the cost of consistency for the other Chiefs receivers. Below is the current target share of the 2025 Chiefs with my projection going forward after doing a research deep dive.
The money says it’s Chuba Hubbard, Rico Dowdle says its Chuba Hubbard but is it actually Chuba Hubbard? When Hubbard was healthy, he had zero missed tackles forced and 10+ yard runs on only 4% of carries. The offensive line has been great, but with great volume, Hubbard was only the RB17 through month one. When Dowdle led the backfield, he was the overall RB1.
Dowdles rushing efficiency has been off the charts. Second to Bijan Robinson in yards after contact per attempt, and was already getting all the goal-line work. I believe this will be a pure committee. If Dowdle leads the way, I believe he can be a great fantasy RB on only 60% of the volume. I cant say the same for Hubbard. Dowdles usage increased every game leading up to the Hubbard injury in Week 4. Is that trend really going to end after back-to-back 200-yard games? Doubt it.
Jordan Whittington or Tutu Atwell? Why not both? Whether you have Puka Nacua or one of the other 20 injured fantasy WRs, the Rams’ backups can provide some hope abroad. In 2024, there were two games without Nacua where Atwell and Whittington both played. They had nearly identical numbers, each having double-digit fantasy points in both games. Below is a table outlining their total stats in Weeks 4 and 5 last season while Nacua was sidelined.
Without Nacua for Matthew Stafford to pepper targets to, the Rams continue to target wideouts versus other positions. Whittington and Atwell each had around a quarter of the targets when on the field. Davante Adams will be the biggest benefactor, but Nacuas league-leading 35% target share is enough to support more than just a small Adams bump. Whittington is most similar to Nacuas role, as Atwell is much more of a downfield big-play threat. Nacua has a lower rate of vertical routes with 21%, Atwells is very high at 51%, while Whittingtons is at 31%. Against a Jaguars defense ranked eighth-worst versus WRs, both have hope as desperate flex fill-ins.
CeeDee Lamb is set to return in Week 7 to a Cowboys offense firing on all cylinders. Since Lamb left in Week 3, George Pickens is the overall WR1 and Jake Ferguson is the overall TE1. That alone should give managers confidence that its not going to completely disappear. Excluding his Week 5 matchup when Jets CB Sauce Gardner followed him snap-to-snap, Pickens’ target share has increased each game, peaking at 32% last week. The chemistry between Dak Prescott and his new wideout has shown consistent growth since their Week 1 dud.
Pickens and Lamb can co-exist. As a 50% slot WR, Lamb can control the majority of the underneath volume, as Pickens’ primary role will stay as a downfield playmaker. It is not a coincidence that Pickens’ best day in terms of target share was also Prescotts highest average time to throw.
Ceedee Lambs return will have a larger effect on Jake Ferguson, in my humble opinion. Since Lambs injury, Ferguson has had an average depth of target of fewer than 4 yards downfield. With Ferguson playing 50% in the slot and 50% as a true tight end, his role is actually more similar to Lambs despite not being a true wideout.
Jake Ferguson is the rare tight end (really just Trey McBride besides him) that is an elite fantasy option due to his extreme volume. Ferguson gets some red-zone work and is great after the catch, but hes the overall TE1 because his volume is better than anyone else. In total targets, Ferguson ranks ninth in the entire NFL. I still believe he will be a valuable TE1, but the difference between the overall TE1 and a mid-level TE1 is stark.
David Montgomery had his lowest carries in a healthy game since 2019 last week, with six attempts. Jahmyr Gibbs has slowly received a larger workload with his percentage of RB touches peaking in Week 6 at 75%. Head coach Dan Campbell has stated hed like the RB split to be more even going forward, which I would like to believe; he is, in fact, the coach who compared Montgomery to Walter Payton less than a year ago.
His production is not the issue in the slightest. Montgomery ranks fourth among RBs in fantasy points per touch, behind only DeVon Achane, Bijan Robinson and Jonathan Taylor. The issue with his Week 7 matchup is that its the opposite of his usual strengths. The Buccaneers are fourth-best against fantasy running backs on the ground, but 23rd versus receiving backs. Last season, Montgomery averaged 16.3 touches per game. Hes passed that mark one time this season. If he has yet another game of low volume after Campbells comments, my confidence in him being trusted going forward would take a dive.
A new offensive coordinator comes with the risk of change for fantasy players. With Nico Collins, that change has been primarily negative so far. Collins has failed to reach seven targets in over half of his games this season after hitting that mark (and usually much higher) in 10-of-12 completed games in 2024. You can say that is partially due to back-to-back blowouts for Houston, but digging deeper brings out more concerns.
In terms of his “expected points per route” or total volume on a per route basis, Collins has dropped from fifth-best in 2024 to 23rd to start the year. Overall, he is set up well in Week 7. Seattle is dealing with injuries in the secondary, is 26th against fantasy WRs, and the game is projected to be a close contest. C.J. Stroud has taken a significant dip under pressure, so the question becomes does the Seattle D-line that pressures the QB 40% of the time ruin his opportunity? Off the bye week, I believe this to be a pivotal point in projecting the rest of Collins season.
The Philly offense has had issues, and theyre about to get some more. If Jalen Hurts wants a challenge, itll come in the biggest form yet: Brian Flores. The Vikings defensive coordinator excels in what the Eagles weakness is.
Philadelphia and Jalen Hurts have always been dominant against man coverage, especially in fantasy. This season, Hurts is averaging 0.79 fantasy points per dropback against man defense. The issue: the Vikings barely run man. They have the No. 1 defense in EPA/dropback, playing 80% zone coverage. Hurts points per dropback drops from 0.79 to 0.27 when playing against zone. With the Vikings coming off a bye week, its an incredibly difficult spot for the Philly offense, which desperately needs a bounce-back game.
Last season, DAndre Swift was the overall fantasy RB1 from games 4-7. A four-game stretch where the Chicago RB dominated and cemented his volume for the season, posting over 100 scrimmage yards in each game. After that stretch, even with bellcow volume, he didn’t have 100 yards in a game until Monday night. Off the bye week, Ben Johnson gave Swift his lowest snap share of the season, but it led to a ceiling performance in fantasy. Swift has yet to have a game this season under 15 touches. With Chicago hosting the Saints this weekend, Swift has the opportunity to once again cement his volume for the season by starting another hot streak.
After starting the season with 14.3 touches per game, Swift jumped to 18 the rest of the way after Game 7. The Bears are currently the top team in run block win rate, along with being a top-10 scoring offense. Johnson is setting up another fantasy gold mine for running backs, and Swift has the opportunity to take advantage. If he keeps up his receiving and stays hot on the ground, Swift would quickly approach fantasy RB1 levels for the rest of the season.
Six games into the season and Justin Herbert has been pressured the second-most in the NFL. Being down three offensive tackles makes it difficult to protect your quarterback. Who knew? Herberts yards per attempt this season drops from 8.0 to 4.7 when under pressure. Especially important for a team No. 2 in dropbacks this season.
The Colts defense has been great this season, but they havent pressured the quarterback too often. Indianapolis ranks fifth in pressure rate over expected while the Chargers have gone extremely pass heavy this season. With such a hot start, the Colts defense has faced the highest pass rate in the NFL entering Week 7, setting Herbert and this Chargers attack up well for a successful day through the air.