Id wager my days of watching football (slightly) differ from yours.
First off, Ill admit it: I tinker with my lineup until rosters lock. Ill recheck defensive matchups, weather conditions (my specialty) and weigh my alternatives. And, yes, seeing players with higher projections on my bench still makes me nervous. Again, Im not perfect. Maybe (likely) they know something I dont.
Regardless, after kickoff, its like Im back in school. I take notes, bookmark informative tweets to reference later and pull data as the games unfold. Fourth-quarter shenanigans disrupt my flow (thanks, Dallas and Washington), but Ill have a good sense of whats happened shortly after the games to distill it down for you all.
However, this week will be a little different.
The top storyline for this week is the Thanksgiving slate. However, the short practice schedule injects some uncertainty. Weve got injuries stemming from Sunday and divisional games that add an extra layer of chaos. Finding ways to tease out fantasy nuggets becomes a bit tougher. And like most of you on Thursday, Ill be fighting a tryptophan coma while waiting to see if my ill-formed multi-leg parlay hits. Anyway, even with all the excitement in store, Ive got a couple of narratives from each game Ill be monitoring.
The Bears rookie finally gave the franchise something we hadnt seen since Week 6. Unfortunately, it wasnt a game-winning drive. All the same, at this point in the season, hope is just as valuable.
The highlights show Williams making multiple this is why throws. His 40-yard dart over two defenders to Keenan Allen is (part of) why Chicago drafted him. With the game on the line, the Bears needed a QB who could quickly move them into scoring position. Once more, Williams arm talent highlights why they took him. And the data backs up the clips:
In the two weeks before the offense was de-Waldron-ized, I noted the conflict the offense put Williams in between his high pressure rate and the receivers route depths. Against the Packers and Vikings, the former Trojan used his legs to limit negative plays and averaged nearly a full yard less per attempt. For reference, through just Weeks 9 and 10, Williams ranked 29th in EPA per dropback if under duress. Hes in the top 12 after the OC switch.
Williams decisiveness has been a boon for his receivers. Hes getting the ball out faster (3.01-sec average time to throw to 2.39) and at shorter distances, allowing his receivers to work after the catch. DJ Moore found the end zone for the first time in almost two months. Rome Odunze is getting in sync with his QB.
But of the Bears WRs Im looking to for on Thursday, the old vet has my eye:
Keenan Allens targets and air yards have been on the rise over the last three weeks. On the flip side, Lions slot CB Amik Robertson has allowed top-10 marks in receptions and yards to interior receivers since Week 9. Detroit is already dealing with injuries in their secondary. With Williams and the offense on the rise, Detroits offense may need another 40-point outing to keep the offense on a roll. And their backfield gives them their best shot.
Its the arrogance of the offense (complimentary) that makes the Lions Americas team for me. Theyre 27th in early-down passing rate. Defenses know whats coming in long-down-and-distance situations. We know. And yet, Sonic and Knuckles have combined for the second-highest rushing success rate (51.7%).
Oh, you dont care about down-to-down efficiency? Theyre also top-three in explosive gains on the ground.
David Montgomerys desire to face his former team may override any injury concerns after a nasty blow to the shoulder on Sunday. But a limited rushing attack is in play. In either case, relying on Jared Goff to keep the offense afloat isnt a bad plan, either.
Five-interception game aside, Goff has been more than a passenger prince in the offense. After seasons of buckling under pressure, the Lions QB sits at 13th in EPA per dropback when the pocket has collapsed. However, Detroits injury bug has infected more than their ground game. Amon-Ra St. Browns knee took the brunt of a tackle after the Sun God took over as the punt returner. Kalif Raymond had to exit Sundays game with a foot injury and now heads to IR. Luckily, the Lions have some depth at the position.
Tim Patrick has popped up for four targets in back-to-back games. In Week 12 alone, three of his catches went for first downs. Surprisingly, the former Broncos receiver is second amongst Lions WRs in target rate from the slot over the last two weeks. Both Patrick and St. Brown have the same number of looks when Goff has had to create out of structure. With Raymond likely sidelined, Patricks routes and opportunities will be one of the underrated topics for the Thanksgiving opener.
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We can look past a lot of things as long as its entertaining. Tommy DeVito’s story from last year is a perfect example. From living with his mom to his agents attire, “Tommy Cutlets” was a sensation. Of course, three straight wins helped, but the spectacle was a breath of fresh air. With all the fanfare, it was hard to see DeVito for what he was (a backup QB).
But there were signs.
Shockingly, after getting yanked for Tyrod Taylor in 23 and serving as the backup until last Sunday, DeVito hasnt improved. The offense cratered. His 43.6% pressure rate was the fourth-highest of either NYG QB this season, and his sacks don’t get any easier to rewatch. Malik Naber’s comments in the aftermath of their 30-7 loss to Tampa didnt help either. But, despite the bad vibes, theres a path for fantasy managers to get some value out of the offense.
Credit where its due, HC Brian Daboll had the right plan for DeVito. Keep things short. Get the ball out quickly. Of DeVitos 31 attempts, 64.5% were either to the short area of the field or behind the line of scrimmage. His average time to throw when not pressured was 2.23 seconds. Plus, even with the lack of looks until late in the game, there was a plan to keep Nabers involved.
Were used to seeing the Giants WR1 all over the place. But his aDOT was down over a full yard from his season-long average. Over half of his routes were in-breaking routes (e.g., crossers, slants), enabling more yards after the catch. Dallas is fourth in blitz rate. On the surface, Drew Lock starting in place of the injured DeVito looks like a stylistic change. But, looking at his time in Seattle, it also fits what Daboll wants from his QBs.
Seattle had a similar game plan for Lock when Geno Smith had to sit. Over 60.0% of his attempts were less than 10 air yards. Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba combined for over 40.0% of Lock’s attempts. JSN’s route trees have looked similar to Nabers’, lending credence to the idea that Lock can lock (pun intended) onto his WR1. But with Lock’s (relatively) quicker processing speed, Nabers can get involved in the game earlier rather than once the Giants are trailing in the game.
On the other side of this game, Im skeptical of Cooper Rushs performance. Yes, he threw twice as many TDs as the week prior. Nevertheless, theres a stark difference in his game environment from Week 11 to Week 12.
The Commanders threw more defenders at him than the Texans but could only muster a quarter of the pressures. Meanwhile, with fewer bodies in the secondary, Rush had more room to operate. Per NextGenStats, CeeDee Lambs average yards of separation jumped up nearly a yard between the two games. Sunday was also a game the Cowboys largely controlled (until Jayden Daniels tried to cook up some magic at the end).
To be fair, New York’s loss of OLB Azeez Ojulari (second-most sacks on the defense) may render my pessimism moot.
Rushs passing success rate climbed by nearly 20 points in Week 12. Lamb hoarded 37.5% of the attempts. Other than who wound up with the ball in the end zone, all went as planned. But one of the unsung heroes on the offense from Sunday was Rico Dowdle.
Admittedly Dowdle fumbled early in the Week 12 game. But he still handled 70.0% of the teams carries and earned a 10.0% target share. And its not just the volume that should make him appealing to fantasy managers. Dowdle has taken over 50.0% of the totes over the last four games. Over that span, he has top-10 marks in rushing success rate and adjusted yards after contact per attempt. With the Giants ranking as a top-10 unit in fantasy points allowed to RBs, Dowdles usage and situation should make him a popular option for gamers on Thursday.
As Miami makes its way up north in the later part of the year, the elements come into our calculus when evaluating its play. The warm-weather team in the cold narrative becomes a talking point. And itd remain a lesser topic if we didnt see the Dolphins flounder in lower temperatures about 10 months ago.
Lets set aside the fact that Tyreek Hill was still dealing with an ankle injury suffered the previous month. Or that Tua had just thrown for less than 200 yards the week before against another tough defensive opponent in the Bills. Honestly, it was probably just a coincidence opposing passers were averaging 199.5 passing yards against the Chiefs over their six games leading up to the playoff matchup. We should also disregard the negative-four-degree temp at kickoff. The cold is what short-circuited Miamis offense.
To be clear, Im kidding.
However, the sub-30-degree scene at Lambeau Field will give off similar vibes. Most will expect Tagovailoa to take a step back. But, if anything, Tagovailoas evolution as a passer puts him in a position to excel in the poor conditions.
In ’22 and ’23, Tua was throwing downfield and creating explosives on a weekly basis. His 10.1 and 8.1 passing aDOTs were well above the league average. But, since coming back from injury, hes at just 5.2 air yards per attempt. And Tua has more than his WRs to keep the offense moving.
Jonnu Smiths 5.3-yard aDOT fits Tagovailoas current style of play. Plus, with Smiths route-running skills, the drop in passing depth hasnt equated to a loss in overall efficiency.
But, even with Smith and DeVon Achane emerging as consistent receiving options, the fantasy community will have their eyes on Jaylen Waddle. After his 144-yard outing in Week 12, the fourth-year WR has more 100-plus-yard games this season than Tyreek Hill. But after nine games of less than 60 yards, itd be fair to look at last Sunday as a fluke.
Im not so sure.
Seeing Hill or Waddle leading the team in air yards isnt a surprise. But Waddles alignment from the interior and his displacement of Hill on the inside was a significant shift. The change left Hill facing the Patriots top corner instead of using Waddle as the sacrificial X-receiver. Packers CB Jaire Alexander is out for Week 13, which helps, but moving Waddle into an even more advantageous defensive matchups puts him back in play for fantasy managers fighting for a playoff spot. Besides, Miami will need to do all it can to keep up with Green Bays offense anyway.
Josh Jacobs has touched the ball 48 times in the last two games. Much to the delight of his fantasy managers, HC Matt LaFleurs run-heavy approach since coming out their bye (-11.0% dropback over expectation rate) has vaulted Jacobs to consecutive top-five finishes. But Miami presents a challenge for the former Raider.
The Dolphins are a top-10 defensive unit in rushing EPA and success rate allowed. Put another way, theyve yet to give up a 100-yard game to an opposing rusher. Jacobs has scored over 20.0 PPR points in two straight weeks. Just two rushers have topped that mark against Miami all season (James Cook and Zach Charbonnet).
The environment calls for more passing, but finding the right Packers pass-catcher to roster has been a season-long challenge. Ill give you two.
Even with the limited pass volume, Tucker Kraft still finds a way to get into the end zone. Since Jordan Loves return to the lineup, Kraft has just two fewer targets than Romeo Doubs (out for Week 13) and leads the team in red-zone targets (11). Also, the Dolphins may be without two of their LBs, freeing up space in the middle of the secondary for Kraft. Miamis given up the 13th-most fantasy points to the TE position, making Kraft an ideal option when Love takes to the air.
Along with Kraft, Dontayvion Wicks should be a productive pass-catcher, too.
We did Dontayvion Wicks Day back in Week 5 when Doubs was inactive. Our prize was a whopping 1.9 PPR points after multiple drops from everyones favorite sleeper WR. However, Jayden Reeds target share hasnt been above 20.0% since Week 6. Plus, in that Week 5 contest, Reed played none of the snaps when the team had two TEs on the field. It was Malik Heath and Wicks.
Christian Watson will likely see Jalen Ramsey giving Wicks some space to operate. Wicks earned a 25.0% share the last time he was a larger part of the rotation. In what should be a back-and-forth environment, hell have the chance to come through for fantasy managers on Thanksgiving.