Shifting perspectives and changing roles are major themes in this weeks make-or-break list. As we get closer to the end of the fantasy season, we think we know the majority of players and what to expect from them moving forward. However, its not always as clear-cut as youd think and matchups arent the only issue. Sometimes we have to adjust our expectations of players and offenses moving forward to truly understand the potential, or lack thereof, with players.
I dont often include quarterbacks, but Bo Nix was in the make-or-break column last week. I highlighted his potential upside in a surprisingly favorable matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs, and he delivered as the QB12 on the week. This week, I want to discuss Maye with a similar thought process that Maye can still thrive even in a less-than-ideal matchup.
When Maye took over as the official starter in Week 6, it was messy but highly productive from a fantasy perspective. He finished as QB8 against Houston and QB7 against Jacksonville. Since then, Maye has gone through rookie woes. To be fair, these struggles have come against very formidable pass defenses, including the New York Jets, Tennessee Titans and Chicago Bears, with the Jets matchup being the week he missed most of the game due to injury.
All things considered, Maye has been solid. While his passing has been inconsistent, his rushing ability has provided a reliable floor. This week, he faces a promising matchup against the L.A. Rams.
The Rams defense is vulnerable, particularly their secondary, but their pass rush has improved as the season has progressed. The Rams have bet big on young talent, and while it took them time to acclimate to the NFL and find their groove, theyve now become a more aggressive pass-rushing unit. A young, aggressive rush against a shaky offensive line can spell trouble, and Maye may not have the time he needs to exploit the secondary fully.
That said, if Maye is forced to bail out of the pocket, it bodes well for his rushing upside. While the Rams defensive line could make this a tough matchup, Maye still offers strong upside as a streaming option, especially for fantasy teams that need to take a risk and pull out a win.
I do live Q&A on Yahoos social channels every week and on my Tuesday live this week, I got a very timely question: when is Nick Chubb going to be Nick Chubb?
Fantasy managers welcomed Chubb back with open arms. Reminiscing on the good old days, we always knew what to expect with Nick Chubb: a hefty workload, high yardage, strong yards per carry and touchdowns. While expectations were tempered coming off a significant injury, Chubbs return has been fruitless from a fantasy perspective. Part of this can be attributed to the overall struggles of the Cleveland offense, but the numbers tell a clear story: Chubb has yet to exceed 52 rushing yards, has just one touchdown, averages 2.69 yards per carry and has no receiving upside. Hes failed to reach double-digit fantasy points in half-PPR.
In all fairness, his last two matchups were against Baltimore and the L.A. Chargers. The Chargers have consistently been stout against the run and the Ravens have shut down running backs all season. In fact, Chubbs 52 yards were the most by any back against the Ravens this season.
Despite these challenges, fantasy managers remain optimistic that, in the perfect matchup, Chubb can return to form. This week offers strong potential.
While his snap count hasnt been particularly high, Chubb has dominated touches out of the backfield. The opportunity is there; its just a question of whether he can capitalize on it in an excellent matchup. This week, he faces a Saints defense that has been lit up by running backs this season, allowing the third-most fantasy points to the position. Its also critical to note that it hasnt taken top-tier talent to boost those points. Sean Tuckers one-week-wonder and Javonte Williams’ sole RB1 performance both came against New Orleans. This is the perfect matchup for Chubb to deliver his breakout performance of the season.
The tides are turning in Denver, and theyre definitely not turning in favor of the aforementioned Javonte Williams. The Broncos didnt hide their intentions when discussing Estimé recently, saying his workload would increase as the season progressed. Most expected a gradual ramp-up, but Sean Payton surprised everyone by completely flipping the Denver backfield in Week 10. Estimé had 14 carries for 53 yards, while Williams had just one carry for one yard and Jaleel McLaughlin had four carries for 12 yards. Estimés snap count wasnt significantly high, but he did out-snap Williams.
Estimé wasnt targeted in the passing game, while Williams appeared to be the preferred target with two receptions on two targets. Though its not much, its something to monitor since Estimé would need some receiving upside to be a reliable RB2. Theres a positive sign, though Estimé did run a similar number of routes to Williams, so we might see his game evolve as the season progresses.
This weeks matchup is risky. The Falcons allow volume to running backs, but rushing touchdowns have been rare only Kenneth Walker and Alvin Kamara have scored rushing touchdowns against them. While Estimé might see good volume, without touchdown potential and with limited receiving upside, hes an extremely risky play.
Theres also the question of whether or not we can actually trust Sean Payton. This wouldnt be the first time a running back saw a sudden spike in carries only for Payton to switch things up the following week. I trust that Estimé has a real chance to retain the lead role, but I feel we need one more week before we can truly rely on anyone in the Broncos run game.
Gus Edwards is back and fantasy managers now face a difficult situation with the Chargers backfield. In Weeks 6 through 9, while Edwards was on IR, Dobbins was the clear lead back. During that stretch, Dobbins ranked as the RB13 in half-PPR, averaging 15.9 fantasy points per game with two top-12 finishes. Edwards return has significantly cut into Dobbins volume. He had just 15 carries for 50 yards and three receptions for five yards, compared to Edwards 10 carries for 55 yards.
While his performance was underwhelming from a fantasy perspective, Dobbins still has the edge in this backfield and should continue to see the bulk of carries. Edwards doesnt contribute to the passing game, and when both are healthy, Dobbins has seen goal-line opportunities, so theres no reason to expect Dobbins will be removed from the backfield when the Chargers are near the end zone.
While Dobbins volume is at risk, the Chargers have a favorable matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals, with an expected point total of 47. This matchup should favor Dobbins, but with Edwards back, Dobbins has entered make-or-break territory. Still, his receiving upside and the advantageous Week 11 matchup lean slightly in his favor.
I discussed DJ Moore in my Sunday Pulse Check article, so it should come as no surprise that hes firmly a make-or-break player emphasis on the break. Lets not bury the lead here: Chicagos pass catchers are unreliable across the board.
We gave the Chicago offense the benefit of the doubt, lulled into optimism before their bye week when they faced favorable matchups that allowed Caleb Williams to thrive. Reality has set in again, and over the past three weeks, Moore hasnt exceeded five fantasy points in half-PPR formats, with his best finish at WR55. Were in a dire situation with Moore; his target share has been underwhelming and inconsistent as Rome Odunze continues to emerge in Chicagos receiving corps.
When each receiver is getting a fairly even share of the targets, this offense is unlikely to be productive from a fantasy perspective. Positive changes might be coming, as the Bears have rightly fired Shane Waldron. But can firing Waldron truly resolve the offensive issues?
It seems highly unlikely. While Waldrons vision was flawed, the Chicago offensive line continues to struggle, limiting Williams effectiveness. At this point, Moore is a boom-bust player, and the boom seems like a rare occurrence. This week he faces a Packers defense that has been a turnover machine and relatively strong against the pass. Moore is a very risky start this week and moving forward.