Week 12 certainly brought a lot of excitement, starting with the snow game Thursday night, continuing with a thrilling fourth quarter leading to overtime in Chicago, KaVontae Turpins muffed punt turned 99-yard touchdown, and a near upset in Carolina. Tampa Bay, Detroit, Miami and Green Bay showed their beleaguered opponents whos boss with statement victories while Arizona Cardinals not named Trey McBride (12/133 on 15 targets) might just as well have stayed on bye.
The star players showed up on Sunday Night Football but that wasnt necessarily the case for the rest of the league. A lot of our No. 1s let us down in Week 12, which made for an ugly fantasy week given all of the byes and injuries we were already navigating. Today were going to take a look at the No. 2 guys who had big days and figure out whether the tables have turned for these teams (fact) or if the stars will be shining brightly again soon (fluke).
Coming off the bye in Week 10, Smith-Njigba has been the clear Seahawks WR1 for fantasy. In these two games, he has 16 catches on 18 targets, while Metcalf has 11 catches on 14 targets. Smith-Njigba has the lone receiving touchdown in that span. Tyler Lockett, meanwhile, has been an afterthought, with just six targets in the two games. With the second-highest average passing yards per game (257.2 yards), Geno Smith can certainly maintain two high-end fantasy receivers. In one sense, it doesnt really matter who is the 1A and who is the 1B; both are every-week fantasy starters.
While Smith-Njigba, in his second year, may seem like the wave of the future, its important to remember that Metcalf is only 26 years old. In PPR leagues, Smith-Njigbas elite target share gives him the edge over Metcalf going forward. However, Metcalfs speed and physicality at the point of catch are going to net him big fantasy games, occasionally at Smith-Njigbas expense. In Week 13, Seattle travels to face the NY Jets, whose stout defense ranks second in passing yards and passing touchdowns allowed to opponents, and first in completions allowed.
Itll be a classic offensive strength vs. defensive strength on display in the Meadowlands, but I expect to see a lot more of Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet given that the Jets are an average rush defense (at best), allowing the third-most rushing touchdowns per game. Temper your expectations on the Seahawks WRs this week but expect both Smith-Njigba and Metcalf to have value in better matchups during Weeks 14 and 16, especially.
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Just when the fantasy world was ready to give up on Waddle, he finally had his big game (8/144/1) while Hills effort in the Dolphins massive victory over New England was forgettable (5/48). This screams fluke on the surface, especially if you factor in Hills lingering wrist injury. But Waddle isnt just a flash in the pan; he was WR13 in 2022 and WR23 in 2023 (fantasy points per game).
When Tua Tagovailoa is on, this offense can easily support 3-4 fantasy starters, a group that includes Jonnu Smith (9/87/1 on 11 targets in Week 12) and of course, DeVon Achane, who had two receiving touchdowns in the win. Its a quick turnaround for Miami as they face the Packers in Green Bay on Thanksgiving night. Its a poor matchup for wide receivers, but even in a week without byes Im not sitting Waddle or Hill.
The agony or awesomeness about this is that people actually started Addison because of all the bye weeks and injuries. If you faced him, like me, it was an early end to your hopes of winning. If you started him, it was clear sailing. Only Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs surpassed Addison in terms of half-PPR fantasy points this week, as Addison put up a sparkling 8/162/1 line against the Bears. On the other end of the spectrum, Jefferson caught only two of five targets for 27 yards.
Realize that the Bears have been one of the best defenses against the pass this season. Its worth holding on to the knowledge that theyll sell out to stop the opponents best receiving weapon, willing to get beat by the next man in line. (Side note: the Bears get Detroit next, which could spell a nice day for Jameson Williams in Week 13). Minnesota, meanwhile, gets two very fantasy-friendly WR matchups in the next two weeks so youll likely get the best of Jefferson as you make your final playoff push. Both Addison and Jalen Nailor are favored end-zone targets for Sam Darnold, so should the Week 14 byes get you down, either would be worth another start vs. Atlanta (gives up the third-most fantasy points to WRs).
Gray has burst onto the TE scene in the last two weeks, scoring twice in each game. Kelce still leads him by a mile in targets, catches and yards, but its been clear for some time that we are not dealing with the same old fantasy goldmine this year. The Chiefs will do what they have to to win, and they have their eyes on another Super Bowl, so if that means keeping Kelce more fresh in his age 35 season, thats what theyll do.
Based on his generally good target share (Buffalo was an outlier among the last five games), you have to start Kelce. But based on his 90% catch rate and end zone magnetism, you can also consider Gray an upside fill in, especially vs. the Raiders in Week 13.
Pickens leads all Steelers receivers in targets, catches and yards, more than doubling up Austin who is second in each category. Yet Austin has four touchdowns to Pickens two and looked to be Russell Wilsons go-to guy for some chunk yardage plays and a touchdown that gave Pittsburgh the lead in the snowy Week 12 game. However, he did only see three targets to Pickens seven, and I tend to go with the usage.
Austin probably will have another ceiling game or two this season, but hell also have the duds. Such is the nature of a WR2 on a shaky offense. Pickens is going to bounce back for his fantasy managers, likely starting in Week 13 against a Bengals defense that is above average in fantasy points allowed to WRs.
Although Anthony Richardson sort of came through for his fantasy managers, he didnt really help those rostering and starting his top WR. Josh Downs had emerged as the WR1 in Indianapolis, with six more targets, eight more catches and two more touchdowns than Pittman, but it was Pittman who came away with the better fantasy value in Week 12, for the first time this season.
As far as deep threats go, Alec Pierce is one of the best. He actually leads the Colts in receiving yards, averaging 13.1 yards per catch. Given that Pittman was drafted well ahead of Downs, and Pierce wasnt drafted at all in most leagues, do we buy the Week 12 breakout?
First, Pittmans 6/96 on seven targets doesnt inspire awe, but they were among the most catchable passes Richardson threw in Week 12 (per FantasyLife Utilization Report). Richardson had a terrible completion percentage last weekend, 39.3%, and only salvaged his own fantasy day with 61 rushing yards. Second, it now appears that Downs (shoulder) will not play in Week 13. The Colts were completely outclassed by Detroit in the brutal loss, but with a better matchup ahead NE can definitely be beaten through the air, as Tua Tagovailoa just showed; Im starting Pittman.
No one out-performed Lamb in Week 12, but he sure put up a dud in non-PPR leagues (10/67 on 12 targets). The Cooper Rush effect has not been overly kind to Lambs managers so far. Still, the massive usage is there, and better matchups are ahead, including the Giants on Thursday. This is a frustrating season for Lamb between Dak Prescotts poor play, a defense that cant get off the field and now Rush, but aside from screaming into the void, what can you do? Lamb remains a must start.
I could just copy and paste the Lamb blurb here. Über-talented WR1, bad QB play, now worse QB play. I wont pick on New Yorks defense since theyre mostly league average. The 2024 Tommy DeVito experience did not get off to the best start, but he didnt commit any turnovers and at least threw the ball to the right person. Nabers saw nine targets, catching six for 64 yards in Week 12. The bad news is that the Giants faced one of the leagues best fantasy matchups for QB/WR in the Bucs. Theyll get another crack at a good matchup as they head to Dallas for turkey day. The Cowboys defense, as alluded to above, ranks in the bottom of the league in opponent time of possession, yards per game and points per game. Nabers is a bright light in a very dim offense, but like Lamb, still a must start.