I always wonder what GMs do once the season starts. But then I look at the trades we get by the deadline. Front offices (the good ones at least) are scouting players and looking at production trends every day. At the same time, theyre trying to figure out whens the right time to make an offer or the proper terms to close a deal. Its a constant exercise. We should approach our fantasy football squads the same way.
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Each week, well be watching the action for our skill guys. I get it theres a championship on the line! But we should also keep an eye out for potential trade targets down the road. With that in mind, Ive got key players from each game to watch.
Xavier Worthy finds himself as the WR1 in a Patrick Mahomes offense with a revamped offensive line. Without Rashee Rice, the then-rookie led the receivers with an 18.1% target share, but at just 8.9 air yards per attempt. After watching Mahomes hit yet another career low in deep-ball rate in ’24 (7.5%), if he gets some more time to let it fly, well see more of Worthys speed down the field.
I figured Najee Harris would make it back to work behind Omarion Hampton. My concern is the split. Yes, Hampton will get the early-down carries. However, HC Jim Harbaugh might defer to the veteran in obvious passing situations. Harris ranked 14th out of 57 RB qualifiers in PFFs pass-blocking grade. Hes also been serviceable as a receiver (9.3 YAC per reception in 24). Even with Hampton in the drivers seat, Harris role might be fantasy-relevant enough to be a bench stash.
Emeka Egbuka already had a clear path to seeing the field. Tampa Bay drafted him in the first round, and the Bucs had three receivers on the field at the eighth-highest rate last year. With Jalen McMillan and Chris Godwin out, Egbuka is their starting slot WR. But his ability to play outside (2.96 YPRR against man coverage, second-best in his class) may vault him into the top 24 by the end of Week 1.
After three games in 2024, Michael Penix Jr. gave us enough to get excited about him as the starter. But the hits to Atlantas offensive line are worrisome. Penixs pocket management will be key against Tampa. His ability to mitigate pressure (seventh-lowest pressure-to-sack ratio) while firing downfield to Drake London and Darnell Mooney is all we need. If he can stay upright, weve got a bye-week streamer on our hands.
Chase Brown is the only RB from 2024 to post top-six usage rates in rush attempts, target share and goal-line carries. Cincinnatis only response to Browns absurd workload was to bring back 29-year-old Samaje Perine and draft Tahj Brooks on Day 3. Browns rapport with Joe Burrow has grown, and Cincinnatis defense wont let them take their foot off the gas. If theres any RB who can have first-round value by the end of the season, its Chase Brown.
Cedric Tillman only played three games with Jameis Winston. However, he was just two targets behind Jerry Jeudy in the pecking order, accrued more air yards and generated more explosive plays. With a similar archetype QB under center this season and facing the Bengals secondary (who allowed the second-highest passing success rate last season), Tillman is a viable flex play in deeper leagues.
Jaylen Waddles target rate was a paltry 13.4% even after Tua Tagovailoa returned to the lineup. Part of the issue was his pre-snap alignment. Waddle played on the perimeter for 76.9% of his snaps with just 12 looks from the slot. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine should take some of the “sacrificial X-receiver” role, putting Waddle back in the WR1B spot.
Josh Downs earned more targets than Michael Pittman Jr. on a per-route basis in ’24 (28.9% TPRR vs. 22.0%). The Colts slot man will also face the Dolphins fifth-round rookie, Jason Marshall Jr., who logged just 59 snaps as a slot corner in college. Downs role and matchup should have him as a WR3 for Week 1.
Tetairoa McMillan has a similar body type to that of former first-round pick Marvin Harrison Jr.. But lets hope the Panthers have a better deployment plan for McMillan. Jalen Coker is on IR. Xavier Legette played out wide on 69.2% of his snaps. Ill be looking to see if Carolina will move their new big-body receiver around the formation, stabilizing his value and keeping Bryce Young on our matchup-based-starter radar.
After last season, it was clear Jacksonville had its WR1. Now, it has the progressive coach and even picked up this draft classs hottest rookie receiver. But the hype wont matter without improvements from Trevor Lawrence. The last time we saw Lawrence, he ranked 30th in adjusted completion percentage, but had the third-highest passing aDOT. HC Liam Cohen should flip those numbers, making things easier for Lawrence and his pass-catchers.
Marvin Harrison Jr. was one of 29 WRs with a target share above 20.0%. Of those 29, the Cardinals receiver had the third-highest aDOT. He played the sixth-fewest snaps from the slot. Only Malik Nabers and DK Metcalf saw more contested targets. In other words, Arizona made life difficult for its first-round receiver. Even just seeing Harrison Jr. move to the slot would be a boost to his long-term value.
Spencer Rattler had just five full starts under a different playcaller. His development under two former QBs might be what he needs to improve. Sure, HC Kellen Moore has worked with three of the best passers in the league, but finding the concepts to maximize their strengths (e.g., play-action, bootlegs, RPOs) can be what turns Rattler from a spray-and-pray passer to one that can give consistent throws to Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed on a weekly basis.
Something about Ashton Jeantys 3.1 yards per carry in the preseason doesnt sit right with me. I realize Im a data-oriented analyst, so I typically toss YPC out the window. But only two forced missed tackles dont instill much more confidence. The Raiders offensive line was already a bottom-12 unit in run blocking. A poor Week 1 boxscore for the first-round RB might cause a dip in the market worth targeting in trades.
We saw Drake Mayes mobility during his rookie campaign. Only Jayden Daniels scrambled more times than Maye. His 4.4 FPPG as a runner ranked ninth amongst all starters. But its his connection with his passing corps thatll be the story of Week 1. Stefon Diggs should take the lead, and with a solid supporting cast, Mayes case to be a top-six QB by the end of Week 1 should be easy to make.
Receivers switching teams is always an intriguing story. Even better for DK Metcalf, his QB is a transplant, too! Regardless, on paper, Metcalf and Aaron Rodgers dont appear to be a stylistic fit. The future Hall of Fame QB has worked with route technicians like Davante Adams. Metcalfs won by physicality. In either case, his ability to earn at least 20.0% of Seattles targets justified his draft cost. But his connection with Rodgers will be the ultimate test of his value.
Theres no question well see Justin Fields tuck the ball and run. HC Aaron Glenn has joked about throwing six passes in a game. Fields himself emphasized the need to play a conservative style of football. But hell have to throw it at some point. And his accuracy, independent of the target location, will drag down our expectations for Garrett Wilson and the Jets’ RBs. While Ill be excited to see Fields scamper into the end zone, a passing TD would help shift the narrative on his arm talent.
Im going to cheat a bit and offer up two players of note for the Giants: Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Cam Skattebo. Skattebo amassing 40 targets in two different seasons makes him as viable a receiving option as Tracy. And Tracys fumbling issues could have him losing favor with a coaching staff with job preservation on their minds. So, any indication of a split, before disaster strikes, would help discern whos in line for more work down the road.
Jacory Croskey-Merritts ascension into fantasy stardom will be a talking point all season. However, his shared backfield will also be a part of the discussion. Austin Ekeler can still play a role on third downs. At 225 lbs., Chris Rodriguez Jr. is a potential short-yardage option. Croskey-The situations where we see Croskey-Merritt will be our first data point on how OC Kliff Kingsbury actually feels about the seventh-rounder.
Calvin Ridley had a 23.7% target share in 2024. Now, he has less competition for looks, with a better passer wholl be working behind a stronger offensive line. But Ridley has to battle with Pat Surtain II in Week 1. However, HC Brian Callahan has talked about using Ridley like JaMarr Chase before. With even fewer options for their new franchise QB, Ill be looking to see if Ridley gets more slot reps in Week 1.
Im trying not to pay much attention to depth charts. But J.K. Dobbins having the RB1 title tamps down my excitement for RJ Harvey. Dobbins’ pass-blocking prowess (allowed only one sack with the Chargers) would make him a preferred protector for Bo Nix in his second year. However, when the Broncos need a playmaker out of the backfield, I expect to see Harvey next to Nix.
Jauan Jennings has practiced once since July. Christian McCaffrey is apparently hurt (again). Ricky Pearsall starts the season as one of the healthiest members of Brock Purdys pass-catching crew, despite missing time himself over the offseason. However, we can project volume for the sophomore, given the state of the team. How often Pearsall lines up on the interior and gets targets across the middle of the field will determine how much more well need to value him throughout the season.
Kenneth Walker IIIs health and ability to stave off Zach Charbonnet will be a weekly worry for fantasy managers. Walker missed some time during the preseason with a foot injury. Meanwhile, Charbonnet (literally) ran over the competition, highlighting the positives of working in OC Klint Kubiaks zone blocking scheme. Even though Walker will start on Sunday, fantasy managers should file away any split in the touches with Charbonnet.
From the 1.01 to the 1.05, Jahmyr Gibbs ADP indicates that we consider him a top talent. By draft price, we expect a majority of rushing shares to go with his receiving workload. But David Montgomery is still there. Everyones looking to Jameson Williams to break out. The red-zone touch share between Gibbs and Montgomery will be the telltale sign regarding whats to come in 2025. If Gibbs stays on the field in those situations, weve got our first-round value.
Matthew Golden got the first-round draft capital and profiles as the Packers WR1. But Jayden Reed returned to practice on Thursday, Romeo Doubs will start opposite Golden and Tucker Kraft is still a menace in the open field. With multiple options for Jordan Love, Goldens target total (not target share) will be the key stat to watch for against the Vikings.
Woody Marks has gotten all the hype during training camp and the preseason. Couple that with Joe Mixons foot injury, and the fourth-round rusher has climbed the ranks. However, Nick Chubb holds the starting role (for now), and Dameon Pierce has also impressed. The touch distribution will be the determining factor for roster moves heading into Week 2. My bet is on Marks, given his pass-catching skills, but lets see how Week 1 unfolds for the rookie.
Every time Matthew Stafford drops back to pass, Rams fans will hold their breath. I will, too. Houstons defensive line generated the 12th-most QB hits last year. And we wont know what itll take to aggravate the injury that sidelined Stafford for most of training camp. Plus, well finally get to see how much chemistry hes been able to develop with Davante Adams, given the limited offseason to prepare.
Isaiah Likely will miss Week 1, leaving the routes and targets to Mark Andrews. However, Andrews ability to capitalize on that opportunity was missing in 2024. His 15.1% target share was a career low. He had to buoy his fantasy value with 11 TDs. Lets see if Lamar Jackson is back in sync with his TE1, with a redemption storyline on the books for SNF.
Khalil Shakir looks ready to play, but Keon Coleman is still a wild card in this offense. His route running was a liability at times during his rookie season; making a marked improvement in adhering to the concept would increase his value to Josh Allen and fantasy managers. Baltimores defense has been stingy to opposing WRs, but how often the reigning MVP looks for Coleman should put the second-year WR on our list of waiver wire targets for Week 2.
HC Kevin OConnell footstomped the idea of the Vikings backfield being Aaron [Jones] and Jordan [Mason] earlier in the offseason. Mason is the younger and heavier of the two rushers, with some pass-catching skills after taking over for Christian McCaffrey in 2024. A 1B role in an offense poised to feature its running game would flip Mason from a bench stash to a bye-week fill-in overnight.
All eyes will be on Caleb Williams, but Ill be looking to Rome Odunze. Last season, Odunzes aDOT was 13.8 air yards. For reference, both DJ Moore and Keenan Allen were getting their targets at 9.2 and 7.5 air yards. Said another way, their jobs were easier. Chicago has a tough draw in Week 1 against the Vikings, which should lower expectations. But if we see more layups for Odunze, Id be looking to acquire him for better matchups down the road.