Each week in the NFL is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy football managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true … don’t be surprised! NOTE: All mention of fantasy points is for PPR formats, unless otherwise mentioned.
Shaheed, acquired from the New Orleans Saints at the trade deadline, averaged an ordinary 11.3 yards per catch with QBs Spencer Rattler and rookie Tyler Shough. Yawn, but everyone on the Saints, even the resurgent Chris Olave, was catching short passes. Shaheed averaged 11.6 fantasy points, on pace for 83 receptions and 943 receiving yards. He was a reasonable, deep-league flex option who simply needed better quarterback play, and the right kind of targets downfield.
That all starts to happen this week because — and say what you will about Darnold and whether you believe he can continue playing at this level (he can, just like last season in Minnesota) — he throws an excellent deep pass, and the Seahawks want more of them. Saints QBs weren’t permitted to throw downfield. Darnold does. Shaheed is a deep threat who averaged 17.5 yards per catch with Derek Carr last season. He might not have that degree of volume, but he should get enough to make an impact.
Good for speedy rookie Tory Horton and the two touchdowns he scored on the Washington Commanders’ defense Sunday night, but the Seahawks weren’t using him much. He has 13 receptions in eight games, and one cannot sustain touchdown production on so few chances. As for wily veteran Cooper Kupp (hamstring), their skills sets don’t really match, though Kupp is getting downfield some. Awesome Jaxon Smith-Njigba is on pace for 2,000 receiving yards, but his 36.8% target share is also quite ridiculous. He’ll take some hit here.
We aren’t ranking Shaheed as a WR3 option yet (the Seahawks play the Arizona Cardinals this week), but I think we will be soon. All it takes is one converted deep pass into a touchdown to convince everyone. Shaheed should be Seattle’s No. 2 flex-eligible option the rest of the season, but that is a bit by design. The Seahawks can’t run the football. Blame disappointing RBs Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet if you must, but they have nowhere to run, and less volume than last season. Darnold’s excellent season piling up passing touchdowns and fantasy points will continue.
Harrison enjoyed his finest game Monday night against the meager Dallas Cowboys’ defense (sure, it is so much better after the trade deadline. Don’t buy it.) and some believe this happened because Kyler Murray (foot) was not the QB. Harrison made all the highlight shows on his touchdown grab because he embarrassed a Cowboys defender with a move, and Dallas WR CeeDee Lamb looked mighty impressed on the sideline. Hey, it was impressive. It was, however, also the Cowboys. Harrison caught seven passes in the game. This is now his career high, in his 25th game. Seven receptions. Ja’Marr Chase does this by halftime.
Ultimately, like everyone else (and don’t argue otherwise), we were all led to believe that Harrison, because of how much he dominated at Ohio State and has a famous Hall of Fame WR as a father, would dominate in the NFL, too. Perhaps he will. Or perhaps he dominated the Cowboys because they are terrible on defense. I realize this sounds negative. We all want to believe, but there really isn’t any evidence Monday that signaled a long-term change in production. Harrison caught two passes in each of the previous two games, and Murray wasn’t the QB.
QB Jacoby Brissett has been around for a long while, and though he is starting again this week against Seattle, I still doubt this would be happening if Murray were fully healthy. Brissett isn’t suddenly a fantasy play at age 32 and with his sixth franchise is as many seasons because he tossed six touchdown passes against the Indianapolis Colts, Green Bay Packers and Cowboys. In other words, I don’t suddenly trade for Harrison in fantasy as if a year and a half of ordinary WR3/4 play (at best, really) is suddenly solved by Brissett as the QB.
This really shouldn’t surprise anyone. After all, Jackson averaged 25.3 fantasy points last season. Second place among quarterbacks was Josh Allen at 22.3 points. Jackson sat out three games because of a hamstring injury recently, and he didn’t run much in the easy Week 9 victory over the feeble Miami Dolphins (14 rushing yards), but he compensated with four touchdown passes. Some believe the Ravens want Jackson to play it safe and remain healthy, throw more from the pocket until the playoffs. Perhaps this is true, but we certainly don’t know this because of that one game.
Jackson really wasn’t running so much in September, not to his typical standards, and he still scored more than 26 fantasy points in each of the first three games. Defenses must plan for everything with him. I think the Ravens, with their schedule, do make the playoffs despite their 1-5 start. I think the Ravens, healthier now across the roster, will play better defense the final two months as well, making their D/ST unit, rostered in 44.9% of leagues, vastly underrated. Look ahead. Invest in Ravens.
Some of us have been overtly focusing on Gibbs not catching passes, since he has only 19 over the past seven games, but the truth is Gibbs has been far less efficient than last season. Don’t blame timeshare pal David Montgomery. He boasts two good fantasy games all season. Detroit still shares touches, but Gibbs just isn’t close to matching last season’s production, except for Week 7 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Minnesota Vikings overwhelmed the Lions’ offensive line last week, taking a 27-24 decision, but I don’t see the Lions being held to the low figure of 65 rushing yards in a game anytime soon. For one, they still get to play the entire NFC East, and three of those teams (Cowboys, Giants, Commanders) are defensively underwhelming. Even the Eagles permit the 10th-most fantasy points to running backs. The Lions must establish their running game, and one presumes they will do a better job getting Gibbs receptions into open space. How can Gibbs be held to 12 touches, as he was last week? It seems silly.
Still, we must glance at December when the Lions face the Rams (Week 15), Steelers (Week 16) and Vikings again (Week 17). These are solid defenses that hassle quarterbacks and restrict running backs, especially the Rams. It’s fair to enjoy Gibbs as he gets your fantasy teams to the playoffs, and you’re never going to sit him in the actual playoffs, nor should you. You just might not enjoy the results the final few weeks before the Bears rematch in Week 18.
Oregon rookie Dillon Gabriel averages 4.9 yards per pass attempt, which is just awful, and why I gave up on veteran WR Jerry Jeudy weeks ago, and haven’t regretted it. It seems unlikely the return of Cedric Tillman (hamstring) will help much. Perhaps we can’t really blame Gabriel. He is heeding advice as instructed, and he barely has enough time to throw even these short passes. His top targets are generally his tight ends, which is fine, unless you’ve invested in Cleveland WRs. Gabriel averages 7.8 fantasy points. That is below struggling Tennessee Titans rookie Cam Ward, and well below long-ago benched veterans such as the New York Giants’ Russell Wilson and Cincinnati Bengals’ Jake Browning.
Why not give Sanders a chance? He threw the football downfield in college, right? Bailey Zappe is the current No. 2 QB, perhaps because Sanders has been dealing with back tightness in recent weeks. Or perhaps not. The Browns didn’t have to draft Sanders and all the drama surrounding him, but they also didn’t trade him this week, either. His Colorado numbers were outstanding, but few projected similar success in the NFL. He won games, but he didn’t always look like an NFL pro doing so. At this point, none of it matters. The Browns are already losing. Try the next player.
Fantasy managers in standard 8- or 10-team formats might scoff at any discussion of Browns QBs, but in SuperFlex and similarly deep formats, literally every QB matters during bye weeks. There was a frenzy to add Houston Texans backup Davis Mills in one of my leagues this week on the chance C.J. Stroud (concussion) sat out a game. Every starting quarterback is active in a league somewhere, especially when Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott and Joe Flacco are on a bye.