Each week in the NFL is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy football managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true … don’t be surprised! NOTE: All mention of fantasy points is for PPR formats, unless otherwise mentioned.
Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes enters Week 9 leading the position with nearly 200 points, and while it is nice to throw to Rashee Rice, Mahomes was thriving before Rice’s season debut. Can anything stop the Chiefs now? Well, they just played the Las Vegas Raiders and Washington Commanders. Still to come are road games against the Buffalo Bills and Denver Broncos and home games with the Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans, Los Angeles Chargers and Broncos. This will be a challenge.
Not to make this all about schedule, but this unconventional take has some merit. First, Maye is already third in PPR points among quarterbacks, a smidge behind Jalen Hurts at 21.7 points per game. Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen average more points, but there is some risk with them. Jackson missed a bunch of games with a hamstring injury, and fear of reinjury is real, while Allen, efficient and effective as a passer despite less volume lately, remains, as with Hurts, reliant on rushing touchdowns.
Maye has topped 20 points in four of the past five games, and five of seven contests, and yes, he has done so against some underwhelming defenses such as the Miami Dolphins and Tennessee Titans. The good part is, thanks to New England finishing last in the AFC East last season, there are more underwhelming defenses to come! This week, the Patriots play the Atlanta Falcons, a team that ranks well defensively, but just got shredded by struggling Tua Tagovailoa for four touchdown passes. Then it is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the New York Jets, the Cincinnati Bengals and later, during our fantasy playoffs, the Baltimore Ravens, the Jets again and the Dolphins. These are teams that permit among the most fantasy points to QBs.
Not everything with the schedule is perfect. As with San Francisco 49ers star RB Christian McCaffrey, Maye and the Patriots are on the bye in Week 14 in December, the first playoff round for many managers. That’s ridiculous, of course, that the NFL has bye weeks this late, but whatever. We all must deal. Maye can’t help us in Week 14, and perhaps not so much in the Bills rematch in Week 15 (he scored only 12.12 points versus Buffalo in Week 5), but the other weeks, enjoy it.
Of course, it’s not just the schedule. Maye really has made great strides. He leads QBs in completion rate and touchdown percentage on throws of at least 20 yards. He is among the leaders in passing yards, passing touchdowns, rushing yards for a QB and fantasy points. It might get even better, making Maye perhaps the best bargain of the top-scoring QBs for those seeking upgrades in trades.
Other QB thoughts that shouldn’t surprise: