Another prime-time game, another key coaching decision potentially changes everything.
The Cowboys, down by 10, got a 64-yard field goal from Brandon Aubrey to make it a one-score game with 4:16 to play in the third quarter. A head-slap foul by Texans defensive lineman Derek Barnett forced Dallas coach Mike McCarthy to make a decision. By all appearances, he didn’t think twice about it.
Take the points off the board, and take a fresh set of downs at the Houston 31.
But here’s the reality. Even if the drive had ended in a touchdown, it still would have been a one-score game. And it would have taken more time off the clock. Why not take the points, kick to the Texans, and force them to do something with the next possession?
What would Houston’s mindset have been at that point? They’d outplayed the Cowboys all night, but they led by only seven points. And they’d just blown on the prior Sunday night a 16-point second-half lead to the Lions. Would the Texans have been a little tight? Absolutely. A failure to convert a first down would have given the Cowboys the ball back, down seven points.
Instead, the drive ended with a failed fourth down and two by the Cowboys at the Texans’ eight, and it remained a two-score game. Before too long (thanks to a strip-sack fumble return by Barnett), it was a three-score game, and it was basically over.
Yes, it wouldn’t have been as big of an issue if the Cowboys had gotten seven after taking three off the board. But it still would have been a one-score game when Houston next had the ball, with less time for the Cowboys to tie the game and win it than if the Cowboys had kicked off the field goal.
Anayltics are important to football. But they must yield to the intangible realities of momentum especially when facing a team that blew a seven-point lead against the Jets in Week 9 and a 16-point lead against the Lions in Week 10.
Field goal or touchdown, it would have been a one-score game. Why not make it a one-score game with the 64-yard field goal and see if Houston can avoid blowing it again?