Weve made it to the weekend, and more college football is on the board.
Our early-week betting positions performed as well as one could ask (make sure youre checking these Monday pieces, they pack a ton of value). Now its time to recap where things stand, how the market has moved, and which new positions have opened up based on those shifts.
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
A Monday read from my early-week college football article that turned into prime closing line value. The idea was simple: North Carolinas range of outcomes was wide enough that a good performance would push the market closer to -21, but a poor showing would open up hedge opportunities.
We got the latter. UNC played a sloppy opener filled with bonehead mistakes and pulled starters early, making the final score look worse than it was. Charlotte benefitted, and our +21.5 position from Monday is sitting pretty.
But now I believe the line correction has gone too far. TCU QB Josh Hoover flashed arm talent that could put him in Heisman conversations, but this wasnt a disaster-level Tar Heels defense. Ill balance out my book.
Bet: Charlotte +21.5 (-110 on Monday)
Bet: North Carolina -13.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Other Week 2 line moves:
Auburn-Ball State Under 55.5 is now 51.5: Happy to ride out a strong early number, no need to add. Many sharp groups betting the under with us.
South Florida +17.5 (at Florida) is now +18: Wrong-side movement. I would consider a hedge if given the opportunity, but Im sitting tight for now.
Hawaiis offense has been shaky as its QB nurses an injury. Photos of him in a walking boot sent the market flying toward Sam Houston and the under, with the spread dropping from -10 to -6.5 before finding resistance. If QB1 sits, backup Luke Weaver a JUCO transfer with limited upside takes over. Thats a downgrade in my book. As the number crept back to 7, I grabbed the dog.
Bet: Sam Houston State +7 (-110, BetMGM)
The Badgers 17-0 Week 1 win was ugly on paper, but context matters: their starting QB went down early, forcing schematic changes mid game. With a full week to prepare for QB2 and a miserable Middle Tennessee squad on deck, I dont expect Wisconsin to sleepwalk twice. Still, protecting depth will be a priority. Instead of a full-game spread, Im targeting the faster start without having to worry about resting starters late in the game.
Bet: Wisconsin 1H -16.5 (-113, BetMGM)
If you havent taken the time to sit down and watch a Pittsburgh Panthers game, Id recommend you do. This team plays at one pace: all out.
Sharp bettors late in the week have been betting this under, a common trait for Central Michigan games as the Chippewas arent a very explosive team. In fact, they actively use two QBs in their offensive scheme, which is already pretty slow and methodical. In theory QB Joe Labas is their thrower but after recovering from an injury, a Week 1 performance with 10 attempts made it seem like this team is fully committed to the run. Not so fast, Im not buying it!
Central Michigan understands its strength is running the ball and in competitive games the Chippewas stick to it, but this is lined up to not be a close one and historically when down a lot the underdog is not afraid to air it out. I’m rooting for this one to open up early and the underdog to start taking shots.
Bet: Central Michigan-Pitt Over 50
Week 1 was simply a warmup game for each program, where two of the nation’s most predominant QBs had their first shot at showing off their talent.
At Michigan, 18-year-old Bryce Underwood took his first collegiate snaps in a quality start versus New Mexico. On the other side, John Mateer, Oklahomas QB and former No. 1 1 transfer portal acquisition, showed off his skills by roughing up an Illinois State team 35-3, and passing for nearly 400 yards.
This marquee matchup has one variable about it that can help you, the bettor: Game of The Year lines. Prior to Week 1, Oklahoma was a 1.5-point favorite in the GOTY market. Do we think Mateers 400-yard performance against Illinois State was worth this line steaming through the key number of 3 all the way to 5.5? I certainly don’t.
Bet: Michigan +5.5 (BetMGM)
Week 2 features plenty of name-brand matchups, but bettors know the real value often lives elsewhere. The key theme across this card is market movement numbers that have drifted too far in one direction because of injury reports, misleading box scores, or overreaction to Week 1 performances. This creates opportunities for less glamorous games that can pay out the sharpest returns.
The UNC-Charlotte setup is a perfect case study: a sloppy opener pulled perception down, but the true power rating gap between these two programs remains massive. That dual-sided position is less about predicting one exact outcome and more about creating a profitable range of outcomes something casual bettors often overlook. Similarly, the Hawai’i situation illustrates how quickly the market can overcorrect on injury whispers, and why timing entries matters as much as picking the right side.
These value plays remind us that the market is most vulnerable when the spotlight isnt shining. Keeping discipline, trusting early reads and being willing to zig when the public zags are what turn these overlooked games into bankroll builders.