We’re now at the midway point of this college football season, and our preseason predictions aren’t looking too hot. But, be honest, yours probably aren’t looking too great either.
It’s been a topsy-turvy start to the 2025 season, loaded with surprising upsets and stunning losses. Perhaps the biggest shocker was Penn State’s wild fall from grace, as the Nittany Lions have dropped three straight and tossed their long-time coach to the curb for a pretty penny.
They’re far from alone, though. Clemson stumbled badly out of the gate. North Carolina has been an unmitigated disaster under new coach Bill Belichick. Alabama flopped early but has since recovered, and it appears Texas has as well. And you don’t need to Google Curt Cignetti to wonder what’s he’s doing at Indiana for the second straight year.
All told, it’s been a roller coaster first seven weeks of the season. Our preseason predictions aren’t holding up, so it’s time for a midseason Take 2.
Here’s how we think the rest of the season will unfold, with explanations for our picks below.
Let’s get something clear right off the bat: We were all wrong about the Nittany Lions. They won’t win the national championship (we picked them to do that). They won’t win the Big Ten championship either (we picked them to do that too). They may not even get to a bowl game (how shocking is that?!). Penn State is, by far, this season’s biggest disappointment from a No. 2 preseason ranking with national title hopes to firing their longtime coach six games in.
The resurgence of Alabama has been a sight to behold, from a season-opening loss to Florida State (the Noles are only bested as this year’s biggest disappointment by Penn State) to winning at Georgia to move into the driver’s seat in the SEC race with a quarterback who’s suddenly one of the Heisman Trophy favorites. Big-spending Texas Tech looks like the class of the Big 12 (can they make noise in December?), and Miami seems leagues away from any other ACC team (the Canes might get a surprise team like Virginia or Georgia Tech in the title game).
In the Big Ten race, Indiana and coach Curt Cignetti are replicating last season’s success (they might be even better?) and Ohio State feels like it’s got one of the best defenses that we’ve seen in the sport in years. The final stretch of the year should be an exciting run to the title game in Miami, where I’ve got two of the sport’s blue-blood powers meeting for it all.
Woof, my preseason picks are pretty ugly. I whiffed on a lot, including my title pick, Heisman pick and biggest surprise. But I’m cool with that. The 2025 season has been incredibly fun and entertaining so far. Who wants to watch a season that goes how you think it will? Variation is what makes sports fun.
I’m also a bit surprised that my 7-6 prediction for Bill Belichick’s first season at North Carolina looks optimistic at this point. I figured there would be some adjustments as Belichick got used to coaching college football, but I didn’t expect the absolute mess that’s unfolding in Chapel Hill. I do think he finishes the season, but I’m not 100% sure about a Year 2 at this point.
My skepticism about the turnover on Ohio State’s defense turned out to be unfounded. So far, anyway. Matt Patricia’s unit is even better than it was a year ago with so many new starters working in seamlessly. Ty Simpson is playing like a Heisman winner in his first season as a starter, and I think he leads Alabama on a deep playoff run.
There’s only one good thing I can say about my preseason predictions at the halfway mark: At least I didn’t buy into the Clemson hype! Other than that, uh, well, it’s probably a good thing sports gambling isn’t legal in the state where I reside.
Hey, this stuff is hard. And with so much uncertainty about rosters from year-to-year now, it’s never been more difficult to project what’s going to happen in college football. All the new rules accidentally created parity, which means the margin for error is smaller for traditional powers, which means every week we’re seeing stuff that would be really hard to anticipate back in August before we saw any of these teams play. That’s a good thing. Indiana butting its way into national title contention, Penn State imploding, Texas Tech buying its way to the top of the Big 12, Vanderbilt demanding our attention all these unexpected developments make the entire sport far more interesting than those years where it felt like we were just counting the days until another Alabama-Clemson meeting in the College Football Playoff.
Given that everyone in the world was wrong about Penn State, the only pick I truly regret is pegging North Carolina at 11-2. Clearly, that was a miss because Bill Belichick has been a disaster, but in the absence of much information about the roster or what he’d be like as a college coach, my default setting was to give the benefit of the doubt to the most accomplished coach in NFL history. Everything else even having Texas as the national champion is still in play. While the Longhorns probably don’t have enough offensive juice to win three or four College Football Playoff games, I still think they could win the SEC title given how good that defense is and what they have left on the regular season schedule. In retrospect, I also wish I’d have given more respect to Indiana in the preseason. I didn’t think the Hoosiers were a fluke last year, but I was skeptical that Curt Cignetti could do it again because Indiana wasn’t going to be overlooked by any opponent this time around. But I was wrong not to believe in him and Fernando Mendoza, who is probably the Heisman frontrunner at this stage after transferring from Cal.
This college football season is utter, glorious chaos, which is fun to watch from a distance but hell to endure if youre a fan (or if you have some very public picks, like, say, Texas and Penn State as your title game pick). Its more difficult to make a reliable pick now than ever before, since the wider dispersal of talent means there are a whole lot more any-given-Saturday moments possible these days.
And now I would like to offer a deposed-SEC-coach-style defense of my preseason picks: It wasnt my fault. I thought Penn State was halfway decent. I thought Arch Manning was closer to ready than he was. I thought Carson Beck was going to trip on his NIL deal, I thought Alabama was going to fold under the pressure of a make-or-break year, I thought Auburn would actually perform up to the level of its recruiting grade, I thought Bill Belichick might be able to actually coach. I thought a lot of things, and pretty much all of them were wrong. About the only comfort I have is that all of my colleagues were equally off-base, and you know you were too, even if you didnt make your picks public.
The lesson here: Beware anyone in college football media claiming to know whats going to happen next, even (especially) me. Theres no such thing as a lock in college football, not anymore. Now, I would like to offer early apologies and condolences to Ohio State, Alabama, Georgia Tech and the other programs Im now backing. Sorry, yall. I know I just torpedoed your seasons. But its been a good run to the halfway point, right?
Hand up, I was wrong. It was a gamble to put my chips in for Penn State, which went only 4-21 against top-10 opponents in the James Franklin era. I was betting on the Jim Knowles hire delivering a top-five defense. It hasnt. The Nittany Lions havent dominated the trenches like I thought they could. They havent pushed the ball downfield effectively, either, although thats not as surprising. Ohio State is my midseason Big Ten and national title pick. The Buckeyes have allowed a combined 41 points in six games. Defensive coordinator Matt Patricia is having fun mixing up fronts and disguising coverages. Julian Sayin leads the country in completion percentage, and, according to PFF, hes tied for the third-most touchdown throws of 20-plus air yards this season. Ohio State lost a platoon of players to the NFL after winning it all and hasnt skipped a beat. Indianas encore performance cant be ignored, though.
The Hoosiers were last years Cinderella. Maybe the Hoos are this years version. Virginia is 5-1 and has a path to the College Football Playoff. A Week 2 loss to NC State is a bit of a stain on UVAs résumé, but a double-overtime win over then-No. 8 Florida State and an overtime victory against Louisville thrust Tony Elliotts team into the spotlight. The Cavaliers won 11 total games in Elliotts first three years as head coach. Its not crazy to think UVA can hit that mark in the regular season this time around. The Cavaliers just need to beat Washington State, UNC, Cal, Wake Forest, Duke and Virginia Tech.
Speaking of the ACC, Clemson wasnt supposed to start the season 1-3. Cade Klubnik was supposed to be on track for Heisman votes. Its hard to make sense of the Tigers ditching their run game in the second half of their one-score loss to LSU or losing the battle on the line of scrimmage in the first half at home against Syracuse despite their NFL-clad defensive front. Another midseason Dabo Swinney resurrection could be underway. Even so, the Tigers two ACC losses are probably one too many. Miami is the favorite to win the league, but Im going with Georgia Tech. Haynes King has to be the dual-threat dude hes been, but hes capable of bringing a league title back to The Flats. Hes the battering ram of a run game thats rampant and explosive. That said, the Yellow Jackets will probably need more takeaways. They’ve got four in six games and are tied for 101st nationally in turnover margin per contest.
There isnt a whole lot to say about me picking Kansas State to win the Big 12 back in the preseason. There’s certainly nothing good to say, at least. The Wildcats lost a slopfest to Iowa State, nearly lost to FCS North Dakota the next week and then dropped a game to an Army team that actually did fall to an FCS team this year (hello, Tarleton State). A defeat to Arizona before an off week sounded alarms indicating a lost season. Since then, however, Kansas State has been better. Kind of like Klubnik, Avery Johnson hasnt taken the step I expected. Whatever K-State does from here on out will feel like too little, too late. I almost tapped Texas Tech to win the league when we did this in the summer, so Im rolling with the Red Raiders now. Take a bow, Shiel Wood. The first-year Texas Tech coordinator is responsible for a defense thats tied for sixth nationally in fewest points per game allowed. The Red Raiders were 122nd in that category last season.
Im OK with the rest of my preseason picks (minus Bill Belichick leading UNC to eight wins this year). I had Alabama playing for all the marbles. Thats feasible. So is Jeremiah Smith winning the Heisman. The Ohio State star has eight total touchdowns in six games. I was on the Boise State back-to-back CFP appearances train, except I quickly hopped off in August. Memphis has my attention. These Tigers earned some stripes with an 18-point comeback against Arkansas. Theyve won the rest of their games handily.