Eye closing line value, they said.
Week 1 came as advertised, but with so many high-profile games hinging on one play, sometimes the coin lands on the wrong side.
Any bettor worth their salt will tell you the first goal is to buy in on a bet that will eventually get closing line value (CLV). So, well take solace in beating the market to:
While they werent the bad beats that transpired in East Lansing and College Station and other campuses nationwide, we will chalk the actual results up to variance, since Movers and Shakers is about pinpointing the big games of the coming week and finding value before the market can weigh-in in a meaningful fashion. Long-term, that should turn into better results.
Or so they say.
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Ohio State, LSU and Miami were the winners of Week 1s top-10 showdowns, and will move up the rankings and betting markets ratings alike. The big resume wins will make it hard for all three to be left out of the College Football Playoff if they dont completely collapse, since theyll always have the Yeah, but we beat … line on their resume.
Beyond being the biggest underdog winner, the Tigers surprised with a remade defense that shut down Cade Klubnik one of the trio of favorites atop the Heisman Trophy odds board this summer. LSUs up to 10-1 for the title and Garrett Nussmeier is the new Heisman favorite.
In the perceived second-tier of CFP contention, Auburn looked like it will be a factor, with a convincing road win at Baylor on Friday night, which disqualifies the Bears game with SMU this week from inclusion in our list below.
Florida State shook up the college football world, running clean over Alabama in Tallahassee, in a clear sign the Seminoles addressed their toughness in the trenches. The betting market pushed the Crimson Tide up to -14, so, it was just as surprising to those thinking Bama would win with ease on the road.
After going 2-10 last season, are the Seminoles back to where they were the season before? Their preseason over/under of 7.5 already seems wildly out of date, and well see if the market rates them back in the neighborhood of the 2023 team when they face their next legitimate opponent, Virginia, in a few weeks. Unfortunately, that wont be until late-September, a week before hosting Miami in a game that should include a few cutaways to the classics of the early 1990s.
Theyre not on the level of Week 1s made-for-TV specials, but there are another quartet of games to get excited about, and if we can beat the market again, results should be improved.
Back in late July we picked out one game in the Game of the Year markets for each week this season. Of course, we didnt have to look that far ahead for Week 2, but the CyHawk was the choice, specifically Iowa State -1.5, citing -4 as our projected line. Well, here we are, with the potential for more closing line value already, as the line has crept up to and slightly over a field goal.
Sharp bettors know that they could have had Iowa State at under a field goal as recently as last week, so the Cyclones werent likely to get reopened at -4 or -3.5, especially in a rivalry game. Even at +3, you can make the case for interest in the Hawkeyes, but weve already done our work in securing a better number than is currently available.
If its big enough to be included in lookahead line GOTY markets this summer, its good enough to be included here, since nothing from each teams dominant wins over teams of the Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) in Week 1, disqualified them for big game status this week.
Illinois opened -1.5 in the summer markets, already carrying a market rating thats been considerably inflated from where the Illini finished last season. At THE WINDOW, we use a simple 1-100 scale to estimate market ratings, and Illinois finished the 2024 regular season at 55 out of 100, but they come into this season in the low-70s on the hope for a big season in Champaign.
Duke hasnt been given that same respect, going from 55 to 60 to 62 from the end of 2023 to before this season. Given how much they paid Darian Mensah to come solve their quarterback problems, theyre the undervalued side in this one.
Pick: Duke +3
It didnt take long for Kansas convincing Week 0 victory over Fresno State to look even better. The Jayhawks covered a big number, holding the Bulldogs to just 216 total yards of offense, only to see the Bulldogs rack up 527 the next week against Georgia Southern.
Kansas didnt cover the monster point spread against Wagner, but we wont dock the Jayhawks for winning by 39 without even asking Jalon Daniels to do anything with his legs. Meanwhile, Missouri beating Central Arkansas by 55 isnt proving anything.
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The opening point spread of 6.5 is fine, based on preseason ratings, but if we suspect that Kansas might be better on defense than was built into those projections and just as capable on offense as was always thought the Jayhawks could be rated like they were at the end of last season.
That Kansas rating would make this line closer to a field goal, indicating we might be headed there by the time the Border War kicks off Saturday.
Pick: Kansas +6.5 (-115)
Michigan hosted New Mexico in Week 1 and showed nothing, doubling the Lobos on the scoreboard and in yards per play, but not covering the five-touchdown spread. Meanwhile, Oklahoma also dominated Illinois State (FCS) in the box score, but didnt cover a similarly massive spread in a 35-3 win.
Yet, the point spread in this game, featured in lookahead markets as recently as last week, has gone from -2.5 to -5.5.
Neither team even had the opportunity to do anything that should change perceptions in the betting market, so its hard to imagine too many respected bets on the Sooners at -5.5, and its far more likely we see the line come back down to the original, around a field goal.
Expect Michigan to do a little more to unleash Bryce Underwood, in their lone opportunity to prove something in non-conference play, in what could be another low-scoring early season showdown.
Pick: Michigan +5.5
You can find more on college footballs biggest games and best bets each week from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.