We werent showing off nor falling behind during a 2-1 Week 0, as we executed the axiom you cant go broke making a profit. Thus, were back for a second edition of Movers and Shakers where we look back at who made a move and who shook up the college football world last week, before breaking down the betting market for the biggest games in the coming week.
The season kicked off in Ireland where the weather either caused or mirrored a sloppy game that, if it were within the rules, probably deserved to end without a winner. Iowa State outlasted Kansas State, and the under was the right side the whole way.
Dont tell that last part to those with Over 51.5 wagers, who thought they cashed a ticket on a late touchdown, only for a review to overturn the score and three kneels followed. The first of many bad beats this college football season.
The Cyclones get the leg up in a Big 12 conference that somehow has more than a dozen contenders, but well need to see more before being sure that either team is any good.
Group of Five darkhorse UNLV almost shook itself out of College Football Playoff contention, as the Rebels found themselves in a battle with Idaho State of the Football Championship Subdivision (FCS). Meanwhile, Hawaiis win over Stanford was a bigger deal by branding than in the market, where the Warriors had been bet favorites over the summer.
The bar for what is a big game in college football changes week-to-week. In Week 0, we were happy to take anything we could get. A week later, the bar goes to a level that it might not reach for the rest of the season, since almost all the teams with title hopes are playing, and television execs have coaxed many into playing each other for big money.
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
There will be no babies out with the bath water for the loser of the first No. 1 at defending champion season-opening game in college football history, but the winner gets a major positive data point on their resume.
Weve already seen that Ryan Day can rally a talented group from their worst moment to their best in short order, so if Ohio State can lose the season finale and still win the title, dropping the opener to APs No. 1 team wont be a killer.
The Longhorns lost 12 players to the NFL, while the Buckeyes lost 14, but neither side has had to overdo it in the transfer portal. Where change could be most obvious is via the playcallers.
Continuity continues in Austin with both playcallers, as Pete Kwiatkowski has been defensive coordinator since 2021, and Steve Sarkisian has an even more talented quarterback to work with (Arch Manning) than the experienced Quinn Ewers.
Ohio State is going from Jim Knowles to Matt Patricia (yes, hes back), and from Chip Kelly to Brian Hartline (who was demoted from offensive coordinator when Day hired Kelly before last season).
To put it simply, a victory for redshirt freshman Julian Sayin, in his debut over the revenge-seeking Longhorns, would be more impressive than Arch Manning doing just enough with his arm and legs to win in Columbus. Especially since home-field advantage is relatively minimal in late August, compared to say, December when these two might very well meet again.
This line is on the move, so shop around to find the best number.
Pick: Texas +2
Maybe Brian Kellys crazy like a fox.
LSUs 0-for-3 in these Week 1 showdowns under Kelly (losing to Florida State twice plus USC last year). So, instead of easing down the throttle for 2025, LSUs cranked it up a notch, putting the Death Valley title on the line like its a virtual ladder match.
When it comes to point spread calculus, I think both Death Valleys are equally awesome when it comes to giving the home team an advantage, with both being worth four points. If thats a fair estimate, then a 4-point line here rates LSU and Clemson on the same level, but I cant quite get there without seeing it first.
With two of the three Heisman favorites squaring off in this one Cade Klubnik for Clemson and Garrett Nussmeier for LSU theres likely no advantage at the quarterback position, but Clemsons returning the vast majority of a team that won the ACC and battled with Texas in the CFP. Plus, Dabo Swinney even dipped his toe into the transfer portal.
We enter another season of LSU having a lot to prove, and (slams fist on table) they keep coming up short, not just in the first game of the season, but overall.
While four points may feel like a lot in a top-10 matchup that could go either way, its easier to make a case that Clemsons rating in the market should be higher than it is to do the same for LSU.
Pick: Clemson -4
Its a newly-created, old-fashioned Week 1 neutral-site standalone game on Sunday afternoon in Atlanta, pitting old rivals who havent played in 33 years. The Hokies will come from six hours away in Blacksburg, and the Gamecocks drive three hours from Columbia. While the colors are similar, the offseason buzz for each team isnt.
Actually, the hype around South Carolina a team Netflix reminded us could have easily been selected to the CFP last year is somewhat reminiscent to the guarded optimism around Virginia Tech one year ago.
Lined at 8.5 wins last summer, Virginia Tech came into the season being thought of as a team power rated 71 out of 100, which was not only better than a trio of eventual CFP teams, but also considerably higher than South Carolina (60 out of 100).
A year later, and the tables have turned, but has that much changed in a dozen games? The Hokies went 6-6 to the Gamecocks 9-3, but five of Techs losses came either in overtime or by four points or less.
The emergence of QB LaNorris Sellers has likely been the key contributor to USCs rating, but Kyron Drones is just as capable of taking over a game which is why many were so high on Virginia Tech before last season.
Ahead of schedule in 2024, the Gamecocks might still be the better team, but getting over a touchdown on a neutral field is too much to pass up for a Hokies team that might just be one year behind theirs.
Pick: Virginia Tech +8
In their early non-conference showdown last season, Marcus Freemans group went to College Station and beat Texas A&M on toughness alone. Its the type of trait thats beneficial on the road against teams with similar talent, and its how the Irish made it to the national title game in January.
Mario Cristobal would love for his teams to exhibit that type of physicality, but how many times do we have to see them fall short in games where they should be pushing their opponent around in the trenches?
Miami wasnt the physically superior team when its undefeated season was ended by Georgia Tech (for a second year in a row) in 2024, but the Hurricanes should have overwhelmed Syracuse in the regular-season finale, only to see a CFP spot go up in flames.
Even with uncertainty about what the Irish will get from their quarterback, Freemans shown he can find victory in the margins (defense, special teams, game plan), and should take advantage of Cristobal when it comes to preparation for this big-time season opener.
Pick: Notre Dame -2.5
You can find more on college footballs biggest games and best bets each week from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.