The College Football Playoff selection committee will have three main questions to answer Tuesday night (7 ET, ESPN) in its second of six rankings.
The bubble watch accounts for what we have learned from the committee so far — and what could happen in the second ranking. Teams with Would be in status below are in this week’s bracket based on our projected top 12. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve also listed Last team in and First team out. These are the true bubble teams, hovering around inclusion. Teams labeled Still in the mix haven’t been eliminated, but have work to do. A team that is Out will have to wait until next year.
The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they’d receive, ranked from the most to least, based on our projection. Check back after the second ranking for an updated version that reflects the selection committee’s latest list.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas, Texas A&M
Last team in: Texas. If BYU drops below Texas and Oklahoma on Tuesday night, that will mean the Longhorns get a promotion by default. They had a well-timed bye Saturday to prepare for Georgia, and nobody has a better chance to impress the selection committee this month than Texas. The Longhorns will face two top-five opponents in Georgia and No. 3 Texas A&M, but with a bad loss to Florida to go along with the loss to Alabama, Texas is still on the bubble, even though it could appear to be in a safer spot this week. If Texas finishes as a three-loss team, it’s conceivable that it could be ranked in the top 12, but it would likely face a similar situation to Alabama last year. The Tide were the committee’s top three-loss team but got bumped out of the top 12 during the seeding process to make room for a conference champion that earned a guaranteed spot. With the ACC and Group of 5 champions currently outside of the committee’s top 12, it looks like the No. 11- and No. 12-ranked teams would be excluded — and that’s probably the ceiling for a three-loss Texas team.
First team out: Oklahoma. The Sooners had a bye this week to prepare for Alabama, which is essentially a playoff-elimination game for OU. Unlike Texas, the Sooners likely wouldn’t have enough on their résumé to compensate for a third loss, even if it was on the road to a top-four team. Their best wins would be against Michigan, Auburn and Tennessee — and they’d lose the head-to-head tiebreaker to Texas if their records remain the same.
Still in the mix: Vanderbilt. The Commodores need some chaos to get back into the conversation, but the overtime win against Auburn kept hopes alive. Vandy won’t play in the SEC championship game, and its only remaining opponents are Kentucky and Tennessee. Texas, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt are jockeying for a fifth at-large bid for the SEC — which isn’t guaranteed — and Texas has the head-to-head win over Vandy. If OU and Texas lose, though, and Vandy wins out, Vandy could move up on Selection Day.
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
Last team in: Oregon. The Ducks did what the committee needed them to do Saturday — earn a statement road win against a CFP top-25 team in Iowa. Though Oregon should maintain its spot in the top 10 on Tuesday night, it doesn’t mean the Ducks are a lock for the playoff. What if they lose to USC? If USC runs the table, its chances of reaching the playoff would skyrocket to 80%, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor — ahead of Oregon (77.5%), which could still get in with USC, depending on how far the committee would drop the Ducks after a second home loss. How the game unfolded would also factor into that decision.
First team out: USC. The Friday night win against Northwestern (wait, he’s not the punter!) kept the Trojans’ playoff hopes alive. They avoided an upset on a short week while NU had a bye week to prepare. Before USC even gets to Oregon, though, it has another extremely difficult home game Saturday against Iowa. If USC and Michigan run the table, it could create a significant debate in the committee meeting room because USC would have the head-to-head win, but Michigan would have defeated No. 1 Ohio State for the best win in the country. USC also has its own tiebreaker problem, as it lost the head-to-head result at Notre Dame.
Still in the mix: Michigan. The Wolverines have two respectable road losses — to USC and Oklahoma — but they have a chance at the best win in the country if they can beat rival Ohio State for a fifth straight season. If Michigan runs the table, it would have a 46% chance to reach the playoff — ninth best in the country, independent of other results. The head-to-head tiebreakers could be a factor when ranking Michigan against USC and Oklahoma, but at 10-2 with a win against the committee’s top team, the Wolverines would be in the discussion.
Out: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Washington, Wisconsin
Would be in: Texas Tech
Last team in: Texas Tech. The Red Raiders separated themselves from the rest of the league after Saturday’s resounding victory against BYU, which is one of the best wins in the country.
First team out: BYU. How far the Cougars fall is one of the biggest questions of the week. The most likely scenarios are they either drop to No. 10 — safely above the pack of two-loss teams that didn’t play (Texas, Oklahoma and Utah) — or they sink to No. 12 behind the Sooners and above Utah because they beat the Utes. If BYU is at No. 12 — and doesn’t win the Big 12 — it would be bumped out of the field on Selection Day to make room for the Group of 5 conference champion. If BYU wins the Big 12, still a realistic scenario, it will clinch a spot in the playoff regardless of where it’s ranked. BYU’s chances of earning an at-large bid, though, took a significant hit Saturday because of how it lost to Texas Tech — with a subpar offensive performance that included three turnovers.
Still in the mix: Cincinnati, Utah. Cincinnati wasn’t included in the selection committee’s initial ranking, but the Bearcats are still listed here because they — and Utah — have at least a 17% chance of reaching the Big 12 title game. Any Power 4 team with a realistic shot at playing for its conference title has a chance at the 12-team field because the five highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed bids. Cincinnati has only one Big 12 loss (the other was the season opener to Nebraska in Kansas City), but it was a 45-14 drubbing to Utah. The Bearcats have a chance at a statement win Nov. 22 when they host BYU. The committee has a lot of respect for Utah, but with Baylor, Kansas State and Kansas left on the schedule, winning the Big 12 is the Utes’ most realistic path to the playoff.
Out: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
Would be in: Georgia Tech
Last team in: Georgia Tech. The ACC continues to struggle with its top-two teams — Virginia and Louisville — losing Saturday night to unranked opponents Wake Forest and Cal, respectively. That means Georgia Tech and Duke (yes, Duke) are the most likely teams to play for the ACC title, according to ESPN Analytics. Georgia Tech still has an opportunity to quiet its naysayers, though, when it plays rival Georgia in the regular-season finale. Though it would be one of the best wins in the country, it might not be enough to catapult the Yellow Jackets into the field if they don’t win the ACC. Considering Georgia Tech began the committee’s rankings at No. 17, behind Virginia and Louisville, it would be a significant jump. The ACC isn’t in danger of being excluded from the playoff — its champion will get in — but it’s becoming increasingly unlikely that the league runner-up will make the cut.
First team out: Virginia. The Cavaliers got a double whammy in their loss to Wake Forest, as starting quarterback Chandler Morris left the game because of an injury. Virginia now has two bad losses — to NC State and Wake Forest — and a win against Louisville to compensate for them. The Hoos could see a significant drop Tuesday night. The Cavaliers’ chances of playing in the ACC title game fell to 35.2% with the loss — fourth in the ACC behind Georgia Tech, Duke and SMU — according to ESPN Analytics.
Still in the mix: Duke, Louisville, Miami, Pitt, SMU. All of these teams have at least a 5% chance to reach the ACC title game, according to ESPN Analytics. Of all of the teams listed here, though, Georgia Tech, Virginia, SMU and Miami lead the ACC with at least a 10% chance to reach the CFP.
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Would be in: Notre Dame. The Irish could be as high as No. 9 on Tuesday night, depending on where BYU falls after its loss to Texas Tech. If the Cougars fall below Oklahoma to No. 12, Notre Dame will get bumped up by default. The Fighting Irish dominated Navy on Saturday, which was playing without injured starting quarterback Blake Horvath. It was Notre Dame’s seventh straight win since starting the season 0-2. In last week’s ranking, the committee considered that those two losses were by a total of four points to two CFP top-25 teams, including No. 3 and unbeaten Texas A&M. The committee was also impressed with Notre Dame’s 34-24 win against USC on Oct. 18, and that will continue to resonate after the Trojans improved to 7-2 following Friday’s win against Northwestern.
Would be in: South Florida. After Memphis lost, the two teams most likely to play each other in the American Conference title game are South Florida and North Texas. The Bulls have the best chance (42%) to win the American, according to ESPN Analytics. Wins against Boise State, Florida — and North Texas — give the Bulls an edge over James Madison.
Still in the mix: James Madison, North Texas, Tulane. JMU has won seven straight games and its lone loss was at Louisville, but the Dukes don’t have anything on their résumé to compensate for it. JMU’s schedule is No. 115 in the country, according to ESPN Analytics. JMU has the second-best chance to reach the CFP (35.8%) behind South Florida (39.7%). North Texas and Tulane are still alive because they both still have at least a 44% chance to reach the American title game.
Based on this week’s projection, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 4 Alabama
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 South Florida (American champ) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 Georgia Tech (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Texas at No. 7 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 South Florida/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Alabama
No. 11 Georgia Tech/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Texas/No. 7 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State