We’ve hit Week 8 of the 2025 NFL season, and despite six teams being on bye, the schedule is loaded. To get ready for it, our NFL analysts have you covered on last-minute prep. Catch up on everything before Sunday’s action kicks off with 11 matchups.
First, analytics writer Seth Walder breaks down three stat trends that could be pivotal this weekend. Then fantasy football writer Eric Moody runs through five players who are rostered in under 50% of ESPN fantasy football leagues as of Saturday and could be started in a jam. That’s followed by NFL analyst Matt Bowen predicting three potentially big surprises and sports betting analyst Pamela Maldonado giving her favorite bet for Week 8.
Can the Steelers keep Micah Parsons away from Aaron Rodgers on Sunday night? Could the Bears upset the Ravens in Baltimore? Should we expect more fantasy upside for Joe Flacco? And might we see Alec Pierce find the end zone for the first time this season? Let’s dive in.
Jump to:
Stat trends | Fantasy sleepers
Potential surprises | Best bet
Will the Patriots be able to target the middle of the field against the Browns’ defense?
New England’s passing offense is on fire, ranking second in EPA per dropback this season and first from Week 3 on. The Patriots tend to work the middle area of the field more than other teams, with 56% of their pass attempts going between the numbers — the second-highest rate in the NFL. But that is exactly where the Browns deter targets, as only 43% of targets against them have gone between the numbers, the second-lowest rate among defenses.
When teams do attack the Browns between the numbers, it has generally worked poorly. Cleveland has a minus-0.02 EPA per play and a 54% defensive success rate on those plays, both fourth-best in the league. So can the Patriots beat Cleveland in the middle of the field, or will they have to adapt to have success elsewhere?
Can the Steelers fend off Packers edge rusher Micah Parsons?
If we’re trying to forecast the probability that the newest Packers superstar (Parsons) will sack the former Packers superstar (Aaron Rodgers), there are a few factors we have to consider. Three of them favor at least one sack occurring:
But there is also one thing to consider from the other side: Rodgers is getting the ball out lightning quick — 2.63 seconds on average, second-fastest in the league — and is taking sacks at a 4.8% clip, better than average.
So where does that leave us? Parsons still has a very good forecast. According to my sack model, he has a 52% chance to record at least 1.0 sacks this week, second-best among all players in Week 8. But still … it’s no lock.
Can the Bears slow down Ravens running back Derrick Henry?
Henry has amassed over 100 rushing yards twice this season — in the Ravens’ Week 1 loss to the Bills and in their Week 6 loss to the Rams. But in between, he has failed to exceed 50 yards in any of the other games.
So which version of Henry will we see Sunday? I would guess a big day is coming. For starters, quarterback Lamar Jackson could return, which ought to help open things up for Henry in the running game. But beyond that, the Bears’ defense is allowing 2.3 yards per carry after contact. That’s the worst in the NFL, and a rough pairing against a Ravens offense that’s averaging exactly 2.3 yards per carry after contact (third-best).
The Ravens also run outside zone at a high rate (46% of the time, fifth-most), which the Bears have specifically struggled to stop. Chicago is allowing 5.8 yards per carry against those plays. All of this works in Henry’s favor.
Cade Otton, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (36.0% rostered)
Otton has emerged as a steady fantasy option, recording 15 targets over his past two games and scoring 10-plus fantasy points in three straight. He led the Buccaneers in Week 7 with seven receptions for 65 yards and remains a key safety valve for quarterback Baker Mayfield.
With Mike Evans sidelined for the regular season (broken collarbone) and Chris Godwin Jr.’s return uncertain (fibula), Otton should continue to see strong volume against a middling Saints defense.
Troy Franklin, WR, Denver Broncos (34.2% rostered)
Franklin saw a season-high 10 targets in Week 7, signaling growing involvement in the Broncos’ passing game. While he turned that volume into just three receptions for 19 yards and a touchdown, the opportunity is there for more production in Week 8. The Cowboys have allowed the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers, giving Franklin a chance to exceed his season-high, 24-point outing from Week 2.
Tez Johnson, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (29.9% rostered)
Johnson has become another reliable option for the Bucs and fantasy managers, scoring touchdowns in back-to-back games and seeing nine targets against the Lions. Over the past three weeks, he has accumulated 162 yards and two touchdowns on nine receptions. He should remain an important target for Mayfield against a Saints defense that has allowed the eighth-most touchdowns to wide receivers.
Kyle Monangai, RB, Chicago Bears (26.3% rostered)
Monangai is coming off his best game of the season, posting 17.4 fantasy points on a season-high 15 touches against the Saints. Coach Ben Johnson appears committed to splitting carries between D’Andre Swift and Monangai, similar to his Detroit days with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. The duo now faces a Ravens defense that’s allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to running backs.
Joe Flacco, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (23.1% rostered)
Flacco has quickly revitalized the Bengals’ offense, throwing for 561 yards and five touchdown passes with no interceptions in two starts. He’s getting the ball out fast and reading defenses efficiently, which has boosted production across Cincinnati’s passing game. And Flacco just scored 25.9 fantasy points against the Steelers, with elite playmakers such as Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins at his disposal.
Fantasy managers can rely on him versus the Jets, especially with the Cardinals, Jaguars, Lions, Raiders, Rams and Seahawks all on bye.
Falcons running back Bijan Robinson rushes for over 100 yards against the Dolphins
Robinson was limited to 40 rushing yards (on 12 carries) in the Week 7 loss to the 49ers, but he has topped the 100-yard mark twice this season. We have to play the favorable matchup here against the Miami defense. Through seven weeks, the Dolphins are giving up a league-worst 159.3 rushing yards per game.
I had the same prediction for Browns rookie running back Quinshon Judkins against Miami last week, and he rushed for 84 yards (with three TDs). Robinson will clip 100 on Sunday.
Colts wide receiver Alec Pierce catches a touchdown against the Titans
As the Colts’ vertical stretch target, Pierce is averaging 19.8 yards per reception — but he’s yet to find the end zone this season. I think that changes against the Titans.
Look for quarterback Daniel Jones to target Pierce on a shot play that easily leads to six points. Pierce has the straight-line juice to separate over the top against Tennessee, which just put starting safety L’Jarius Sneed on injured reserve.
Bucs safety Antoine Winfield Jr. intercepts Saints quarterback Spencer Rattler
Rattler has thrown only four interceptions this season, but three of those came last week against a Bears defense that changed the post-snap picture. He will face some of the same confusion against a Bucs unit that ranks in the top 10 in both blitz and pressure rate, which could allow Winfield to grab his first pick of the season.
Chicago Bears +6.5 at Baltimore Ravens
Turnover differential could matter here. The Bears lead the league at plus-11, while the Ravens sit 31st at minus-7. That’s an 18-possession swing between two teams that play at similar tempos and run-heavy rates.
Chicago just needs to protect the ball and shorten drives Sunday. Baltimore’s offense falls apart when quarterback Lamar Jackson makes mistakes, and the Bears’ defense has been opportunistic all season. Even if the Ravens move the ball, extra possessions and short fields favor the Bears covering. That’s too big of a margin to ignore in a game this volatile.