Sunday’s Wimbledon final is set to be an epic rematch of last year, with Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic battling it out for the title. Can defending champion Alcaraz win again? Or will Djokovic win a record-setting 25th Grand Slam title? We asked our experts:
Reigning champion Carlos Alcaraz shows his emotions after defeating Daniil Medvedev in four sets to advance to the 2024 Wimbledon final.
D’Arcy Maine: Can we first take a second to appreciate that we get this rematch Sunday? This has the potential to be a classic, regardless of who wins, and there is so much on the line for both of them. Get your popcorn — or strawberries and crème — ready.
Alcaraz already has a blueprint of exactly how he can beat Djokovic in the Wimbledon final, and he will need to find a way to replicate as much of that as possible. “I know what I have to do,” he said Friday about the possibility of facing Djokovic again. Alcaraz would ideally like to have a better start this time around, but that has been something that has plagued him throughout this tournament. He has dropped the opening set in three matches at Wimbledon. It would certainly help him if he could bring the level of intensity he has become known for right from the start, but, as he has proved, it’s not a necessity.
During the 2023 final, Alcaraz took control of the match once he started utilizing his variety and drop shot, and that will yet again be crucial Sunday. He has youth, speed and health on his side, and that could also be the difference late in the match.
Bill Connelly: Suffer. We know Alcaraz can do it, but we still don’t know if Djokovic can. He has played only 17 sets in six rounds thanks to a quarterfinal walkover and a draw that has pitted him against only one top-20 opponent. This might be the most favorable draw he has ever seen at a Slam. While it’s still incredible that he has done what he has done so quickly after a pretty serious knee surgery, we’ve somehow gotten to this point without knowing just where Djokovic grades out in terms of his typically superhuman fitness levels.
Alcaraz is one of just 11 players, active or retired, who know what it’s like to beat Djokovic in a five-set match, and he likely has far more of a fitness advantage than normal. Grinding and suffering, making this match as physical as possible, could pay off more handsomely than it usually does against Djokovic.
Sam Borden: Move him around and keep him on court. As strong as Djokovic’s knee has looked — and it’s ridiculous what he has done so soon after surgery — there are still moments in every match when he hesitates or double-clutches on a hairpin slide or turn. Is it possible he’s 100 percent? I guess so. But I’m not convinced there isn’t still a tiny question mark in Djokovic’s mind as to what his knee can handle, and Alcaraz — a player who seems to only get stronger as the match goes on — can test him, over and over, with drop shots and side-to-side groundstrokes better than anyone. If this goes the distance, I like Alcaraz to get it done.
Novak Djokovic fends off Lorenzo Musetti in straight sets and will face Carlos Alcaraz in a repeat of last year’s Wimbledon final.
Maine: Rely on his experience and mental toughness. I can’t help but be reminded of the 2023 Cincinnati Open final between these two. Sure, that was a best-of-three, a different surface and Djokovic had not just undergone knee surgery, but because of the heat, he was visibly struggling for much of the match and was trailing a set and a break. But as soon as Alcaraz allowed the slightest of openings, Djokovic began to find his way back. He took control of the rallies, was aggressive and ultimately grinded out the marathon victory.
That was just some six weeks after the Wimbledon final, and Djokovic was likely thinking about revenge to some extent. One would imagine he will be motivated by that even more this time around when the stakes are higher. He’s not the favorite entering the final, but he seems to thrive on disrespect and being the underdog, no matter how slight.
Connelly: Serve big, basically. Sometimes the stats offer something pretty straightforward. Djokovic and Alcaraz have played each other five times; when Djokovic wins at least 67% of his first-serve points, he wins. When he doesn’t, he loses. He was at 62% in last year’s Wimbledon final, just as Medvedev was at only 62% against Alcaraz in Friday’s semifinal.
Alcaraz’s serve has been pretty streaky at this tournament, and it’s fair to assume he’s going to need a healthy amount of success in the return game. If Djokovic is controlling matters with the first serve, he probably wins.
Borden: Jannik Sinner (and others) has had some — and the word some is doing a lot of work there — success against Alcaraz by trying to go on offense and attack Alcaraz’s forehand. It’s a formula that could turn out very badly if Alcaraz is on, but as Bill pointed out, Alcaraz’s serve can be hit-and-miss, so there’s a scenario where he gets frustrated because he’s not serving well and might then be a bit more vulnerable, mentally, if the forehands are spraying a little, too.
Djokovic is a master tactician, so he’ll know about the instances in which Sinner has succeeded with this plan, and he certainly has the skill set to pull it off himself.
Maine: Thinking about this logically, it seems as if Alcaraz should win. He knows exactly what is required to defeat Djokovic at the All England Club, he has been in fine form throughout the tournament and is fresh off the title at Roland Garros — and Djokovic is just five weeks removed from knee surgery. However, despite the struggles of his season and his health, this is still Novak Djokovic, arguably the greatest to ever play the sport. I just can’t see him letting this opportunity — especially after the bitter disappointment of last year — slip away. Don’t ask me to explain it any further, I’m just going with Djokovic in five sets.
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Connelly: Even with the easy draw, I’m struggling to make sense of Djokovic getting to this point. He had a painfully mediocre season, tore his meniscus, had part of it removed … and emerged better just a couple of weeks later. What? Picking against him therefore seems awfully foolish, but I’m going to do it. Alcaraz won the last Slam, he beat Djokovic on this very court, with each at 100% health, a year ago, and he’ll get it done again. We’ll say it’s in four sets this time.
Borden: The moment is here, No. 25 awaits, and Djokovic is poised to play one final violin symphony for his daughter on Centre Court. Coming into the tournament, I thought it was more likely he would skip this tournament to be ready for the Olympics — a gold medal being perhaps the only honor in this sport he hasn’t won — but, clearly, I was wrong. Djokovic takes the rematch in four.