ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — Snowballs thrown on the field — mainly towards the opponent’s bench — paused the Buffalo Bills’ regular season game versus the Miami Dolphins in 2022.
The Bills had a 14-6 lead at the time in the key December matchup. The Dolphins, undeterred by the snowy distraction, would work to come back and take a 29-21 lead early in the fourth quarter.
It wasn’t enough. Similar to so many recent matchups between the two teams, the game ended with a Bills win. Buffalo scored twice in the final quarter, including a game-winning 25-yard field goal by kicker Tyler Bass that ended the game, 32-29.
Since 2020, the Bills have won nine of 10 regular and postseason meetings between the division rivals. Extended out to 2016 when the Dolphins last won in Orchard Park, the Bills have won 14 of 18.
“I think just overall, holistically, I think playing good complementary football certainly helps keeping their offense off the field,” coach Sean McDermott said when asked about the team’s success against the Dolphins. “But overall, just doing what we can to win it, to win each play one down at a time, really.”
In 2023, the AFC East came down to the final game of the regular season between the Bills and Dolphins. Buffalo won, in part, thanks to a punt return by Deonte Harty and then an interception by safety Taylor Rapp with 1:17 remaining, handing the Bills the division title for a fourth straight year.
This season, early projections for the AFC East were mixed. The Bills experienced change in the offseason, moving on from key veterans. The Dolphins and Jets both worked to build competitive rosters that haven’t come to fruition for various reasons. A division known for one team monopolizing the top — the New England Patriots won the division all but one year from 2003 to 2019 — saw the Patriots franchise take a turn to the bottom.
At about the halfway point of the season, the division has a clear frontrunner. The Bills are sitting at 6-2 with a 3.5 game lead, the Jets are sitting in second place coming off a Thursday night win and the Dolphins are 2-5 as quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is set to start his second game since returning from injury.
In recent years, matchups between the Bills and Dolphins have taken place with plenty on the line, but there has been an overwhelming theme of Buffalo getting the best of its division foe. This Sunday (1 p.m. ET, CBS) will mark a chance for the Bills to sweep the Dolphins this year and put an exclamation mark on the team’s lead in the AFC East.
“A head start definitely helps,” quarterback Josh Allen said, “but not getting complacent and not just sitting here saying things are taken care of because they’re not. There’s a lot of football left in the season. Anything can happen, and we got to keep our foot to the gas.”
To understand the Bills’ early commanding lead in the division through eight weeks, it has to be put in historical perspective.
The Bills are the 11th team to lead their division by at least 3.5 games after Week 8 since NFL divisional realignment in 2002. Each of the previous 10 won their division. There is a slight chance that Buffalo could clinch the division as early as Week 12, something only three teams have ever done (2004 Eagles, 2007 Patriots and 2009 Colts). All three of those teams reached the Super Bowl in those seasons — and lost.
There is a lot of football still to be played before the playoffs enter the conversation, but the Bills are coming into this game on a good run of form.
The team is in the midst of its second three-game winning streak of the season and has already played five of nine road games — including winning both against division opponents so far in the Dolphins and Jets. The season has featured bumps and inconsistencies, but also signs of a team that is developing, especially on offense. The offensive line has been a strong point with a league-low 10 sacks allowed, in addition to only three turnovers for the unit.
“We understand Josh’s goals, and none of us want to be the reason why he doesn’t get those goals,” left tackle Dion Dawkins said. “If our quarterback is having the best season of his life, we all smile in the shadows, like, yep, that’s because of us. If our running back is doing what he does, it’s the same thing. … But as a unit, I feel like we’ve been doing a great job of just playing together.”
Allen, in particular, has had historic success against the Dolphins. His 21 passing touchdowns in seven home games versus the Dolphins in his career are by far the most by a quarterback versus a single opponent at home (seven more than next closest).
Since QBR was introduced in 2006, there have been 76 instances of quarterbacks making at least 10 starts against a single division opponent, and Allen’s total QBR of 77.7 against the Dolphins is the third highest among those.
“Just trying to put extra emphasis on winning games in our division,” Allen said when asked why the Bills have had such success against the Dolphins. “And make no mistake about it, they’re a really good football team. … I know their record doesn’t indicate it, but they’re playing really good football right now. So, we got to be ready for whatever they can throw at us. Got to have a good week of practice and, again, make adjustments in-game and go from there.”
The Bills are 3-0 at home this season and averaging 38.3 points in those games. If the offense stays at this pace, it would be the most points per game at home in a season since the 2014 Packers. A win would extend the team’s AFC East home winning streak to 10, tying the Cowboys for the longest active home division winning streak.
For the halfway point of the season, the Bills are trending pretty healthy for this game with linebacker Terrel Bernard (ankle) likely back. Defensive end Von Miller is also back from suspension.
Having the defense closer to full strength, especially at the midway point of the season is a positive step for this unit. Stifling the Dolphins offense has played an important part in the recent stretch of wins as the Bills won the last seven home meetings with Miami by an average of 17.0 points per game, scoring 37.0 PPG in those matchups.
“I feel like we just do a good job coming ready to play, especially with like, Bills Mafia,” nickel corner Taron Johnson said. “I feel like it’s always a challenge to come [to Buffalo] and play. So, the fans are loud and I’m sure that’s challenging.”
The hurdles that come with trying to beat a Bills team that has had so much success versus one opponent can also serve as a motivation, although this early November matchup won’t feature any snow.
“One of the best feelings [with the Giants] was losing six games in a row to San Francisco over the three years and playing them in the NFC Championship and beating them and going to the Super Bowl and winning it,” Dolphins wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. said this week. “So, I definitely know what it’s like to be on the short end of a rivalry, but I think everybody around here is tired of it and everybody has got to come to work with that mentality that this is the most important game of our season.”
The Bills have emphasized this week that they are not looking at the Dolphins’ record in preparing for this game. Right tackle Spencer Brown noted that last year, the Dolphins were up in the division, but the Bills came back to win it in that final game.
“So, whatever the record is, just can’t take ’em lightly, and it’s a division game at home, so gotta get a win,” Brown said.