Every week in the NFL season brings a host of new questions and answers some old ones, too. Lets run down what we learned in Week 11 and what well be wondering about in Week 12 and beyond.
Yes, there are still seven weeks to go in the NFL season, but the outlines of the playoff picture are starting to take shape. And in the case of the NFC, theres a whole lot of uncertainty about who will occupy the three wild-card spots. Nothing is set in stone, but current division leaders Detroit, Philadelphia and Atlanta all appear in position to make the playoffs. Minnesota, at 8-2, is a game ahead of the field, so the Vikings ought to be safe for a wild-card spot.
That’s four of the eight playoff spots, plus whoever emerges from the jammed up NFC West, where the 6-4 Cardinals are a game up on the rest of the division.
So three spots essentially remain.
What, then, do we make of Green Bay (7-3), Washington (7-4) and the three NFC West teams that don’t win the division? If Washington falters, could one of the NFC West teams sneak up and make a run? Fortunately for the Commanders, Washingtons remaining opponents have a winning percentage of .433, 26th among NFL teams. San Francisco’s remaining schedule ranks fourth in difficulty, Seattle’s ninth, Green Bays’ 10th, the Rams’ 11th and the Cardinals’ 19th.
Right now, you want to be Washington, Green Bay or Arizona but you dont want to be too comfortable.
Look, under normal circumstances, if someone told you that the Lions hadnt lost in more than two months, youd assume that it was the offseason. But this is 2024, and these Lions are on an eight-game winning streak, their best in nearly a century. All those decades of futility may not necessarily have been worth it to get to this point, but the fans of Detroit certainly deserve every bit of joy theyre feeling these days.
Nowhere was that joy more apparent than on Sunday, when the Lions beat on what has been, for most of this millennium, their AFC mirror image in futility, the Jacksonville Jaguars. Reports broke on Saturday that Jaguars head coach Doug Pedersons seat was glowing and hed be gone soon; Dan Campbell responded by dropping 52 points on the Jaguars and making Jacksonvilles decision easy. Not that Campbell should have taken it easy on Pedersons squad, but damn throwing down half a hundred, and 644 yards of offense, is a statement. Nobody in the league right now is operating at any kind of level close to Detroit, and Campbell has made it clear he wont let sentiment or empathy get in his way. Which doubtless suits Detroit just fine.
Look at the numbers, and theres a lot to like about the Los Angeles Chargers 7-3 record, tenacious offense, still-improving quarterback play, a new level of energy and vitality thanks to Jim Harbaugh. Look beyond the numbers, though, and youll see this is a team thats still making a lot of the exact mistakes they have in the past, just with a fresh coat of paint.
The Chargers nearly Chargered away a crucial Sunday night win against Cincinnati, surrendering a 21-point lead and barely hanging on for the victory. Justin Herbert was two completely different quarterbacks in the game, from assured and confident in the first half to erratic and off-target in the second. Now, the Chargers won, which is to their credit, but still is anyone feeling confident in this team?
Thanks to Kansas City, every single AFC team rolls into every postseason with a huge, glowing asterisk over their heads. It doesnt matter how well you perform in the regular season; what matters is what you do when the temps are colder and the spotlight brighter. Buffalo and Baltimore have made a habit lately of posting strong, even definitive regular seasons, only to evaporate in the postseason.
Sunday gave us more of the same. A Pittsburgh team that scored every single one of its points via field goal still had enough juice to contain Lamar Jackson and the usually explosive Baltimore offense quite a shock given the fact that the Ravens led the league in multiple major statistical categories coming into the game. And Buffalo held on for a key win against Kansas City, but that holds all the value of a paper napkin at a rib joint when January rolls around. You get the impression that Kansas City isnt all that distraught to see the undefeated season end, and it wouldnt be surprising if the Chiefs played a bit of rope-a-dope on Buffalo, staying in the game but not going over the top with classic Andy Reid-style trickeration. There will be time for that later and that should worry Buffalo substantially.
Seattle is a tough team to figure out. Are the Seahawks good with occasional terrible stretches, or a bad team that can sneak up and beat a good team, the way they did Sunday against San Francisco? The 49ers, on the other hand, are no mystery theyre a good team brought low by injury in almost every facet of the game.
You dont want to say a season is over in November for a team that was playing in the Super Bowl earlier in the year, but somethings definitely off for San Fran. Against Seattle, Brock Purdy had 158 yards passing and Christian McCaffrey had 79 yards rushing to lead the Niners neither of which will inspire any hurrahs. This might end up being one of those lost years for San Francisco; Kyle Shanahan and crew will reload and come back stronger and more fit next year. And yes, they will be back. Dont think for a second they wont.
Well, well, well. Look whos smirking now. Sean Payton, ripped from here to the tops of the Rocky Mountains for the way his Broncos underachieved and underwhelmed last year, is all of a sudden sitting pretty right in the heart of the AFC playoff race. And he did it by maximizing the potential of another energetic, short-throwing quarterback. Bo Nix may not follow the Hall of Fame trajectory of Drew Brees, but hes certainly capable of carrying out Paytons schemes which still involve destroying the Atlanta Falcons.
Nix had his finest game of his young career Sunday, throwing for four touchdowns and 307 yards to pace an absolute demolition of the Falcons. At 6-5, Denver now holds down the seventh and final AFC playoff spot, one game ahead of Indianapolis. The newly tough Broncos have three winnable games coming up against Las Vegas, Cleveland and Indianapolis before a tougher stretch of the Chargers, Bengals and Chiefs to wrap up the season. The Broncos havent made the postseason since Peyton Manning walked off the field in San Francisco with a Super Bowl trophy after the 2015 season; its the second longest postseason drought after the Jets. But Sean Payton has this team on the right trajectory to end that ugly streak this season.