The NASCAR Cup Series returns after a two-week Olympic break Sunday night at Richmond.
There are just four races to go before the 10-race playoffs begin. The schedule to end the regular season looks a little bit different too. The playoffs start a week later than usual thanks to the Olympics, and Watkins Glen doesnt appear on the schedule until the postseason. Michigan follows Richmond, with the typical regular-season finale at Daytona before this years regular-season finale at Darlington.
If youve forgotten whats at stake over the next month, weve got you covered. Heres a refresher ahead of Sundays race.
Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott, Tyler Reddick, Brad Keselowski, Alex Bowman, Joey Logano, Daniel Suarez, Austin Cindric
With 12 drivers visiting victory lane already and 16 playoff spots available, there will be a maximum of 16 winners during the regular season. That guarantees that each of the drivers listed above are in the playoffs.
Larson leads the Cup Series with four wins and is also atop the points standings despite missing the Coca-Cola 600 because of the delayed Indianapolis 500. Hamlin and Bell are tied with three wins apiece and Blaney is the only driver with two wins. Everyone else has just one win.
Martin Truex Jr. (653 points)
Truex is in the midst of another weird season. Hes seventh in the points standings but doesnt have a win and has just four top-five finishes despite leading 461 laps. Hes had some incredibly bad luck in his final full-time season. And yet he feels like a title contender if he can get a win or two.
That win could come Sunday at Richmond. Truex is one of the favorites at the short track and has three wins there since the start of the 2019 season.
Ty Gibbs (587), Chris Buescher (562), Ross Chastain (552)
As you can see from the points totals of the three drivers above, Truex is way, way, way ahead of them. Unless there are two new winners at Richmond and Michigan, Truex could conceivably clinch a playoff spot without a victory with two races to go before the playoffs.
Gibbs has struggled lately and needs to rebound to keep his spot in the playoffs. Hes fallen from seventh to 11th over the summer and has finished outside the top 20 in five of his last seven races. The lone bright spot in that stretch is a third at Chicago and there are no more road courses before the playoffs begin.
Buescher reeled off three wins at the end of the regular season last year. Were not going to rule something like that out this year, even if its improbable. Chastain has just two top-five finishes and hasnt been much of a factor this season. But his ability to avoid terrible finishes has been massive.
Bubba Wallace (545)
Wallace is just seven points back of Chastain and should be a factor at both Michigan and Daytona. He hasnt finished lower than 13th since he was 34th at New Hampshire and was fifth at Indianapolis. We think Wallace gets into the postseason. And Chastain could be the odd man out without a win.
Chase Briscoe (469), Kyle Busch (440), Todd Gilliland (434), Michael McDowell (404)
Everyone else behind them has fewer than 400 points. It feels a little incomprehensible that Busch is on this list, but its been a disastrous second season at Richard Childress Racing for the two-time Cup Series champion. He hasnt finished in the top five in the last 11 races and has just one top-10 finish since that fourth-place at Dover. In that span hes failed to finish five races four via crash and has finished outside the top 20 seven different times. Theres little reason to believe that Busch will find the speed to make the playoffs at this point. Maybe well be surprised.
Briscoe is the top driver in Stewart-Haas Racings final season before he heads over to Joe Gibbs Racing to replace Truex. Hes tailed off since finishing second at New Hampshire. Gilliland hasnt finished in the top five all season but is outpacing his teammate McDowell. If we had to pick any of these four drivers to win, itd be Busch. But it would be a very small wager.