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If you could boil down C.J. Stroud’s unbelievable rookie season into one clip, it might not be one of his 23 touchdown passes or any other highlight play. It would be an answer to a postgame question from reporters. And it came after a loss.
Stroud did his best against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 5, throwing a go-ahead touchdown to Dalton Schultz with 1:49 left. The Falcons rallied and won on a field goal as time expired. The media asked Stroud about that touchdown to Schultz. The answer was stunning.
Stroud talked about how, based on his film study, he anticipated the Falcons being in a coverage they’d used on a big third down earlier in the season, a “quarters, matchy, cover-4 look.” Stroud told Schultz, who was in his sixth NFL season, how to adjust his route to beat that anticipated coverage for what Stroud “thought would not only get us a first down but a touchdown.”
“I’m literally trying to, like, to break down exactly what I want from him in the huddle,” Stroud said. “At first I don’t think it registered, then he was like ‘I get it, I get it.’ Dalton is really smart and made a hell of a route.”
The Falcons called the coverage Stroud anticipated. Schultz beat safety Jessie Bates III, a Pro Bowler last season, for an 18-yard score.
.@CJ7STROUD WITH THE GO-AHEAD TOUCHDOWN: #HOUvsATL on FOX: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/LxW25sxi72 pic.twitter.com/qZaI7r9mPn
NFL (@NFL) October 8, 2023
Stroud, in his fifth game, instructed a six-year veteran on how to beat one of the best safeties in the NFL for a go-ahead score, and it worked. Some veteran quarterbacks of many NFL seasons might not have figured that out. A rookie barely a month into his first season did.
“Just being instinctive, trying to put my guys in the best position to make plays and win games,” Stroud said.
Enjoy this incredible breakdown from, C.J Stroud on how he led the Texans to a late 4th quarter drive against the Falcons. Including making an in-game adjustment, fooling an All-Pro safety and getting the trust from Bobby Slowik to make it happen. pic.twitter.com/w3yJThr2sf
Chancellor Johnson (@ChancellorTV) October 12, 2023
Stroud looked like a 10-year veteran quarterback and an elite one last season. While it’s nearly impossible for a rookie QB to get enough votes to win MVP, Stroud was playing well enough that he deserved to be in that conversation. He took the Texans, a laughingstock for the few seasons before Stroud and coach DeMeco Ryans arrived, to a division title and a playoff win.
The Texans’ startling revival was about more than just one player. But there’s no doubt Stroud was the biggest key.
Less than a year after Stroud made his debut, anything seems possible for the Texans. They went out and were aggressive in the offseason, trading for four-time Pro Bowl receiver Stefon Diggs from the Buffalo Bills and signing help for the defense that featured Will Anderson Jr., last season’s NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year. Houston isn’t considered a contender for just a division title, but a Super Bowl championship as well. Stroud is a preseason MVP candidate. Overnight, the Texans went from perhaps the worst franchise in the NFL to a team everyone is excited to watch. Houston got four prime-time games this season and two other standalone games. The Texans hope they’ll get even more television exposure in the playoffs.
Houston’s story gives hope for every other down-and-out franchise, but it won’t be easy to replicate. Stroud had perhaps the best rookie season for any quarterback in NFL history, and it wouldn’t have happened in Houston if Stroud went first overall in the draft instead of falling to No. 2. Stroud falling one spot was a franchise-changing break. Ryans, a fortunate hire because he had fond memories of his playing days in Houston, looks like another home run. The Texans overpaid to move up and draft Anderson last year, but he made an immediate impact with seven sacks. Other young players like receivers Nico Collins and Tank Dell and cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. had breakthrough seasons. It also didn’t hurt that Houston played in a fairly weak AFC South (the Texans had the sixth-easiest schedule in the NFL last season, via DVOA), and a Week 18 win over Gardner Minshew II and the Indianapolis Colts brought them a division title.
It was a magical season, but it also seems like there’s much more to come over the next few years. If the Texans’ new quarterback’s precocious rookie season was a sign, Houston is going to be a factor for a while.
The Texans pulled off a stunning trade, sending a 2025 second-round pick to the Bills for receiver Stefon Diggs. Buffalo also sent Houston a 2024 sixth-round pick and a 2025 fifth-round pick. Houston then made the confusing decision to restructure Diggs’ contract, voiding the final three seasons and essentially putting Diggs on a one-year deal with a path to free agency in 2025. The Texans still have not given a clear answer to why they did that for Diggs without much benefit to themselves, and we’ll see how it turns out long term. In the short term, if Diggs plays to his career level then the Texans have one of the best receiver groups in the NFL. Houston also traded for Bengals running back Joe Mixon, then signed him to a three-year, $27 million extension. The new contract for Mixon, who will be 28 years old this season with nearly 1,600 career regular season carries, was another unusual decision. However, in the short term Mixon should be an effective part of Houston’s offense. The Texans added to the defense, signing pass rusher Danielle Hunter, linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair, defensive linemen Denico Autry and Tim Settle and cornerback Jeff Okudah. They did lose some talent, like defensive end Jonathan Greenard, defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins, linebacker Blake Cashman and running back Devin Singletary. The draft was fairly light because the Texans traded a lot to Arizona to move up and draft Will Anderson Jr. in 2023, including their 2024 first-round pick. Houston drafted defensive back Kamari Lassiter and offensive lineman Blake Fisher in the second round and both could contribute soon. Many of Houston’s additions were probably parallel moves to the losses they had, but the Diggs trade should define the offseason.
Grade: B
We need only one stat to sum up C.J. Stroud’s rookie season:
QBs to lead the NFL in Pass YPG and Pass TD/INT ratio in a single season:Joe Montana (1989)Tom Brady (2007)C.J. Stroud (2023) pic.twitter.com/CXEric0vCN
Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) January 8, 2024
When you are on the same list as Tom Brady and Joe Montana, in what arguably were the signature seasons of their all-time great careers, and do so as a rookie, that’s ridiculous. Stroud finished with 4,108 yards, 23 touchdowns, five interceptions and a 100.8 passer rating. The question is, was it the greatest rookie season for a quarterback in NFL history? He has a good argument.
The list of all-time great rookie seasons by a QB before Stroud reads something like this: 1983 Dan Marino, 2004 Ben Roethlisberger, 2011 Cam Newton, 2012 Andrew Luck, 2012 Robert Griffin III, 2012 Russell Wilson, 2016 Dak Prescott, 2020 Justin Herbert and Stroud. Prescott has the record for highest passer rating, Luck had the most yards, Herbert had the most touchdowns. Newton and Griffin were fantastic passers who added a lot of value with their legs. Marino finished third in the MVP voting (but didn’t win Offensive Rookie of the Year, which went to Eric Dickerson and his 1,808 yards). Stroud just checked all the boxes, with efficient, mistake-free football while putting up a lot of yards and big plays as he led his team to a division title and a playoff win. It’s reasonable if you want to pick another player as the best rookie QB ever, but the fact that Stroud has a great argument for the honor is a great sign for the Texans.
A year ago, the Texans had a win total of 5.5 at BetMGM. Their opening odds to win last season’s Super Bowl were 300-to-1, the longest odds in the NFL. There’s a big difference this year. The Texans are seventh in this season’s Super Bowl odds at 14-to-1. The win total is 9.5. C.J. Stroud is fourth in the MVP odds at +1000, just ahead of two-time MVP Lamar Jackson. DeMeco Ryans is tied for fourth in the Coach of the Year odds at +1400. Everyone knows the Texans have come a long way in the past year, and perhaps the easiest way to see the transformation is in the betting odds.
From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “The early Yahoo draft market only has a six-receiver gap from Nico Collins (WR17) to Stefon Diggs (WR23). I’m not sure that’s enough spacing. Diggs ended the 2023 season as an unproductive player including the playoffs, he had a modest 47-422-1 line over his final 10 games. And it’s not like he was tied to a bad environment; Diggs was working as the top target in Josh Allen’s offense, albeit the scheme became more run-heavy when Joe Brady took over the play-calling in mid-November.
“Now Diggs is changing teams and stepping into his age-31 season, two reasons for caution. I won’t rule Diggs out completely I did select him in a mock draft recently, as he slipped into the sixth round, past market. But if I want a receiver in this rising offense, Collins and Tank Dell (WR25) are my proactive targets.”
The Texans were horribly unlucky last season when it came to injuries, and still won 10 games. The Texans had the most adjusted games lost due to injury in the entire NFL last season, according to FTN Fantasy’s Aaron Schatz. They set a record for the most adjusted games lost on the offensive line, dating back to 2001 when Schatz started tracking AGL. The Texans lost 30 more games among offensive linemen than any other team last season. They also had the fifth-most defensive games lost to injuries in the league last season. Injury luck rarely carries over from season to season, and the Texans are due for some positive regression in that category. The Texans’ sudden rise to the top of the AFC South was startling, and it’s even more surprising when considering they were the most injured team in the NFL.
Diggs is recognized as one of the NFL’s best receivers. There’s also a reason the Bills, still chasing a Super Bowl, traded him to a fellow contender in the conference. Maybe Diggs wore out his welcome in Buffalo and also faded in a noticeable way late last season, but the Texans are happy to have him.
Hes fitting in great. … Hes come in and been a leader which Im proud of him for, C.J. Stroud said. And just really has been unselfish (and) nothing but just amazing so far. And Im very excited to work with him.
We’ll see Diggs’ reaction if he isn’t the alpha receiver in the Texans offense or even the No. 2 option. That could happen. Nico Collins is coming off a huge 1,297-yard season and is just 25 years old. Tank Dell was explosive as a rookie, with 709 yards and seven touchdowns in just 11 games. Diggs’ struggles last season, as he hit 30 years old, have to be accounted for too. In the Bills’ final 13 games, counting playoffs, Diggs had just 636 yards and three touchdowns. He didn’t have a single 100-yard game despite playing with Josh Allen, one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks. A midseason change in coordinators by the Bills affected Diggs’ role, but it’s still concerning how quiet Diggs was over the final few months last season.
C.J. Stroud was so good as a rookie, talk of him winning MVP this season is natural. Especially with Stefon Diggs aboard and Tank Dell back from a season-ending injury suffered in Week 13. Stroud could challenge 5,000 yards this season. MVPs almost exclusively go to quarterbacks from No. 1 seeds, so if you believe in Stroud as an MVP candidate you also should believe the Texans can post the best record in the AFC. And if you think the Texans can be the top seed in the AFC, then you have to believe in them as Super Bowl contenders too. It seems crazy to believe that the Texans, who had four coaches in three seasons (counting an interim) from 2020-2022 and were generally thought of as the most dysfunctional franchise in the NFL and perhaps all of sports, could win a Super Bowl this season. But if Stroud is even better than last season and the defensive additions lead to an improvement there, it could happen.
The term “sophomore slump” exists for a reason. C.J. Stroud was incredible last season, but it’s a lot to ask for him to be even better this season. The bar is high. There’s another term, borrowed from Bill James and the baseball world, and it’s “plexiglass principle.” Simply, that means teams that have a massive improvement one year are likely to decline the following season. The Texans went from the gutter of the NFL to being lauded endlessly this offseason, especially after the Stefon Diggs trade. While the Texans were good last season, there are still some questions on the roster. Not everything got fixed in one year. It would seem like a huge disappointment if the Texans post a losing season and miss the playoffs after such a remarkable turnaround, but it’s possible. It wouldn’t be the end of the world either, because the Super Bowl window will be open for a while with Stroud. The Texans’ future is bright but they’re no lock to win the AFC South, especially with the Colts and Jaguars looming as viable contenders.
C.J. Stroud is going to be a star. It’s hard to believe that someone as poised and advanced as he was as a rookie won’t be an excellent quarterback for many years. Still, it wouldn’t be a huge shock to see him level off a bit this season. It might be realistic to expect some regression for the Texans as a whole. This was supposed to be a multi-year rebuild; nobody figured they could go from the bottom of the NFL to the top in two years. While the Texans earned the hype and a lofty position in these power rankings, I’m starting to worry it’s a little too much too soon. I’ll say the Texans make the playoffs but the race for the AFC South title will be more competitive than anticipated.