East Carolinas Longshot CFP Dream: How the ECU Pirates can Turn 0.6% Chance Into a Miracle Bid originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
East Carolina remains on the fringes of the College Football Playoff conversation, with ESPNs playoff predictor giving the Pirates only a 0.6% chance to make the field. The odds are slim, but the possibility still exists.
At 63 overall and 41 in American Athletic Conference play, ECU has built one of the stronger résumés in the Group of Five. All six of its wins have come by double digits, including blowouts over Campbell (53 points), Coastal Carolina (38), Temple (31), Charlotte (26), Army (22) and Tulsa (14).
The challenge has been the losses: a defeat against NC State, a road loss at No. 12 BYU and a head-to-head loss to Tulane that complicates ECUs conference position.
With three weeks left in the regular season, the American title race remains crowded. Navy, USF, Tulane, North Texas and ECU all enter Week 12 with one conference loss. USF and Navy face each other this weekend, which will narrow that group to four teams, but the Pirates still need multiple results to go their way to keep both their conference and CFP hopes alive.
The final stretch includes Memphis at home, followed by road trips to UTSA and FAU. Winning all three games is essential for ECU to stay in the race. A 93 finish entering the American title game is the minimum requirement for keeping their postseason hopes alive.
ECU needs help at the top of the standings. Tulane owns the tiebreaker over ECU, and North Texas would likely finish ahead in the Americans CFP and computer-based rankings formula. For the Pirates to reach the conference championship without relying on every metric breaking in their favor, they need both teams to drop a game.
ECU needs:
Both teams are favored in each matchup, which puts the Pirates in the uncomfortable position of relying on substantial upsets.
USF is also a one-loss team in league play, but their success benefits the Pirates in the long run. ECU needs the Bulls to beat Navy, which would hand the Midshipmen a second conference loss. The other key factor is ranking value. ECU needs USF to continue winning and rising in the CFP rankings.
If ECU reaches the American title game, a matchup with a ranked USF team would be the best-case scenario for strengthening their résumé.
A 103 American champion with a quality win over a ranked USF team would put ECU in a strong position to battle for the Group of Fives guaranteed CFP spot. A title game win over Navy or Memphis would not carry the same weight.
James Madison is the most dangerous obstacle outside the American. ECU needs the Dukes to lose to one of Appalachian State, Washington State or Coastal Carolina. Another possibility is an upset in the Sun Belt Championship.
If Southern Miss were the team to win the Sun Belt, ECU would need the Golden Eagles to take another loss to avoid becoming an 112 champion with a comparable résumé.
This is the least complicated part of the equation. As long as San Diego State, UNLV, Hawaii or Boise State finishes with three losses or a weaker résumé, ECU would be favored over the Mountain West champion in a ranking comparison.
In addition to beating Memphis, ECU fans should root for:
All three American underdogs are double-digit dogs, but the Pirates only need one or two surprises to keep the door open.
East Carolinas path to the College Football Playoff is narrow and complicated, but not closed. If the Pirates finish 103 as American champions and enough results fall their way in the American and Sun Belt races, ECU could still secure the Group of Fives automatic bid into the expanded 12-team postseason.
A less than one percent chance is hardly encouraging, but it is still a chance. For the Pirates, that is enough to keep fighting.