Utah State, coming off a big 51-14 against Nevada, has an important road test in front of them as they head to Las Vegas to face off against UNLV. The Rebels are 7-2 (3-2), and Utah State is also sitting at 3-2 in conference play. Currently, five Mountain West teams have two losses in conference in Hawaii (4-2), New Mexico (3-2), UNLV (3-2), Fresno State (3-2), and Utah State (3-2).
UNLV crushed Colorado State 42-10 on the road in their last game. In that game, Anthony Colandrea passed for 251 yards and two touchdowns, completing 15 of his 22 attempted passes. Running back Jaiden Thomas was the star of the offense, rushing for 131 yards and a touchdown on just seven carries. Wide receiver Troy Omeire had one reception for 68 yards and a touchdown. Linebacker Blesyng Alualu-Tuiolemotu led the Rebels defense with 10 total tackles and four solo. On the year, Anthony Colandrea has passed for 2,251 yards and 17 touchdowns to just five interceptions. Running back Jaiden Thomas has rushed for 780 yards and eight touchdowns on 103 carries. Wide receiver Jaden Bradley leads UNLV in receiving yards, garnering 650 yards on 37 receptions and three touchdowns. Against the Rams, UNLV had 571 yards of offense, including 320 rushing yards, but the Rebels did commit a significant amount of penalties with 9 penalties for 72 yards.
Date: Saturday, November 15th
Time: 5:00 P.M. MTN
TV: CBS Sports Network
Line (Provided by Draftkings Sportsbook): UNLV (-6); Over/Under: 68.5
Series history: Overall, Utah State leads the series against the Rebels, 18-9. However, UNLV has won the last two games against the Aggies, both wins coming in Logan. In 2024, Utah State lost 50-34, and in 2022, Utah State lost 34-24. From 2012 to 2021, the Aggies had six straight wins against UNLV before falling in the close 2022 game. The Aggies went on a similar six-game winning streak against the Rebels between 1988 1993. In the last ten matchups, Utah State has gone 6-4 against the Rebels so it has been more even. The smallest margin of victory came in 1986, 7-6, and the largest margin of victory came in 1971, 27-7.
1. Run an efficient offense, control the clock
Utah State had 522 yards of offense against Nevada with 377 passing yards and 145 rushing yards. The Aggies did have nine penalties for 75 yards and converted 50% of their 3rd Downs, just as UNLV did against Colorado State. To run an efficient offense, the Aggies need to control pre-snap penalties. Utah State also needs to avoid long 3rd Downs to get pressure off of Bryson Barnes and the receivers. Utah State still needs to run the ball, but Utah State has proven that they are most efficient when passing the ball. However, if Utah State only passes the football, UNLV will drop its defense back to prevent the big plays through the passing game. Bryson Barnes has to be able to use his feet to keep the Utah State defense off the field. Utah State needs to try to get Miles Davis going again, especially in consideration of the time of possession.
2. Force turnovers and limit explosive plays
One of the things that Anthony Colondrea does well is that he doesnt turn over the football often. He has only five interceptions on the year to 17 touchdowns. The Utah State defense needs to be fundamentally ready to take on a very explosive offense that not only passes the ball well but also runs the ball extremely efficiently. Utah State has to get the UNLV offense off the field. The Aggies do not want to get into a shootout in Las Vegas, which would put even more pressure on Bryson Barnes and the Utah State offense.
3. Protect the ball and win the turnover margin
Utah State has to be able to take advantage of the offensive opportunities that are given to them. The Aggies cannot afford to move the ball and turn it over. Quick changes of possession change the dynamic of the entire game. On the road in an environment that can get loud, Utah State cannot give the momentum back to UNLV. Forcing turnovers would allow Utah State to control the clock, and that is exactly what the Aggies need to do to win this game. Control the clock and keep the defense well rested. Utah State has a very good turnover margin and has an overall margin of +0.8, which is in the top 20 among FBS teams. The Aggies have 7 turnovers the entire year and have forced 11, which gives them a season margin of +4. The Aggies need to use their strength in ball protection to their advantage in this game.
Utah State has struggled against the run this season, and in their losses, teams have had a lot of success running the football. This is an issue going into the UNLV game as the Rebels run the ball extremely well. For Utah State to win this game, the Aggies need to execute on the fundamentals of run defense, such as wrapping up and covering the edge. If Utah State can stop the run, its chances of winning this game will rise significantly. The story of this game is likely going to be Utah States offense and how they execute. Utah State, as mentioned, has not had a lot of turnovers this year. The issue for Utah State that needs to be addressed is penalties and the struggles on 3rd-Down conversions. If Utah State is continually punting throughout the game, that can be treated as turnovers because it is giving momentum back to UNLV.
Blake Anderson will be able to use his legs to get some yards and will connect with the receivers, but Utah State struggles to stop Jaiden Thomas, and the Rebels do enough offensively to keep themselves in the mix for the Mountain West Championship game.
Score Prediction: UNLV: 38; USU: 34