Welcome to The Playbook for Week 11, which kicks off Thursday with the Jets at the Patriots.
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
Additionally, we have folded the Shadow Reports, previously a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns here. Using our play-by-play data, we’re able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings, sit/start advice and waiver wire suggestions each week.
All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
NYJ-NE | WAS-MIA | CAR-ATL | TB-BUF | HOU-TEN | CHI-MIN | GB-NYG | CIN-PIT
LAC-JAX | SEA-LAR | SF-ARI | BAL-CLE | KC-DEN | DET-PHI | DAL-LV
Projected score: Patriots 31, Jets 19
Lineup locks: Drake Maye, Breece Hall, Stefon Diggs
Fantasy scoop: You’d be hard pressed to bench Hall, but he has massive bust potential this week against perhaps the league’s best run defense. New England has allowed the fewest rushing yards and lowest yards per carry (3.3), as well as the second-fewest scrimmage yards and touchdowns (three) to RBs this season. No running back has reached 50 rushing yards against the Patriots in any game.
The potential saving grace here is the passing game, as New England has surrendered the most RB receptions, allowing 17-plus fantasy points efforts to Bijan Robinson and De’Von Achane. Hall, who ranks seventh among RBs in receiving yards, should be viewed as a midrange RB2 this week.
Over/under: 49.4 (8th highest)
Win probability: Patriots 87% (2nd highest)
Projected score: Dolphins 26, Commanders 24
Lineup locks: De’Von Achane, Jaylen Waddle, Deebo Samuel
Fantasy scoop: Chris Rodriguez Jr. left Sunday’s game in the third quarter due to a shoulder injury, but it’s worth noting that he had seemingly replaced Jacory Croskey-Merritt as the team’s lead back prior to his departure. Rodriguez started and played seven of nine snaps before Croskey-Merritt even saw the field. Rodriguez went on to play 17 of 25 first-half snaps, although Croskey-Merritt did play eight straight snaps to open the second half before Rodriguez saw the field. Rodriguez went down on his first snap of the second half, and Croskey-Merritt went on to play 10 snaps, compared to nine for Jeremy McNichols. The trio combined for 14.5 fantasy points and none cleared 30 yards.
The good news is that Week 11 presents a good matchup (Miami has allowed the fourth-most yards, eighth-most fantasy points and 4.9 yards per carry to RBs), but the bad news is that this is a three-headed committee in a struggling, Jayden Daniels-less offense. This is a situation best avoided, but if Rodriguez is sidelined, Croskey-Merritt (under 6.0 fantasy points in six straight) will have some deep-league flex appeal.
Shadow Report: Upgrade Miami’s receivers against a struggling and injury-riddled Washington secondary that includes Jonathan Jones and Noah Igbinoghene on the boundary and Mike Sainristil in the slot. Washington has surrendered the third-most fantasy points to receivers this season and has the worst EPA against the pass over the past four weeks. The Commanders sit top five in yards (1,779), touchdowns (13), yards per target (9.8) and catch rate (69%) allowed to receivers. Waddle is the main benefactor here, but Malik Washington has some sleeper flex appeal.
Over/under: 50.3 (3rd highest)
Win probability: Dolphins 59% (10th highest)
Projected score: Falcons 22, Panthers 19
Lineup locks: Bijan Robinson, Rico Dowdle, Drake London, Tetairoa McMillan
Fantasy scoop: McMillan has enjoyed a 38% target share over the past three weeks, which trails only Jaxon Smith-Njigba (42%) for highest in the NFL. The boost in usage is nice, though it hasn’t led to a ton of fantasy points (36.5, to be exact) in Carolina’s run-heavy offense. On the season, McMillan sits seventh among receivers in targets (80), but he’s just outside the top 12 in catches (46) and yards (618). He’s found the end zone only twice (both in Week 6), which has him 22nd among wide receivers in fantasy points (30th PPG).
Perhaps McMillan’s bad TD luck will turn (his xTD is 4.2), but in the meantime, his usage is just enough to keep him in the weekly WR3 mix. That includes this week against an Atlanta defense that has allowed the second-fewest catches to receivers this season and that held McMillan to 48 yards in Week 3.
Over/under: 40.9 (14th highest)
Win probability: Falcons 61% (8th highest)
Projected score: Bills 26, Buccaneers 24
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, James Cook III, Rachaad White, Emeka Egbuka
Fantasy scoop: Cade Otton posted a career-high 12 targets and season highs in catches (nine), yardage (82) and fantasy points (17.2) last Sunday. After averaging 2.8 targets and 2.4 fantasy points per game during the first four games of the season, Otton is averaging 7.4 targets and 12.2 points per game over his past five outings. The leap has, of course, coincided with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin Jr. and Bucky Irving missing time with injury, which is similar to the huge leap he made while Evans and Godwin were sidelined in 2024. Tampa Bay’s offense hasn’t been quite as good as it was last season, however, and Otton’s Week 10 performance marked his first top-10 fantasy outing of the season.
With Godwin and Evans still sidelined, Otton is on the TE1 radar, but he’s not an ideal Week 11 start against a Bills defense that has allowed the fewest targets, catches, yards and fantasy points to tight ends. Travis Kelce (12.6) is the lone tight end who has reached 8.0 fantasy points against them this season.
Shadow Report: If Christian Benford returns from injury this week, he’ll be a candidate to shadow Egbuka. If he remains out, rookie Maxwell Hairston figures to travel with Egbuka. Benford has traveled with Garrett Wilson (9.0 fantasy points in the game), Tyreek Hill (15.9), Chris Olave (11.0), Drake London (31.8), Tetairoa McMillan (16.9) and Travis Kelce (10.6) on their perimeter routes this season, and Hairston stepped in for Benford and shadowed Jaylen Waddle (17.7) last week. The six aforementioned shadowed wide receivers averaged 17.1 fantasy points, with four of them reaching 15.9. We don’t need to be worried about this matchup, so Egbuka remains a fringe WR1.
Over/under: 50.2 (4th highest)
Win probability: Bills 59% (11th highest)
Projected score: Texans 26, Titans 14
Lineup lock: Nico Collins
Fantasy scoop: A large early-game deficit certainly helped his cause, but Woody Marks is fresh off a Week 10 effort in which he played a career-high 78% of the Texans’ offensive snaps. Marks posted a strong 14-63-1 rushing line and added 18 yards on a pair of catches. The rookie has now scored 15-plus fantasy points in three of his past six games, though he’s also posted a pair of sub-3.0-point duds during the span (including in Week 9).
The good news is that Marks has a terrific Week 11 matchup against the same defense that allowed him career highs in touches (21), yards (119), TDs (two) and fantasy points (27.9) back in Week 4. Marks may defer more work to Nick Chubb this week, but he’s the current lead back in Houston and can be considered an RB2 option against a defense that has allowed a league-high 14 touchdowns to RBs.
Shadow Report: Upgrade Houston’s wide receivers against Tennessee’s patchwork cornerback room. With top corner L’Jarius Sneed still on IR and Roger McCreary traded to the Rams, Jalyn Armour-Davis and Darrell Baker Jr. are manning the perimeter, with Marcus Harris in the slot. The Titans have allowed the sixth-most yards and ninth-most fantasy points, as well as the highest catch rate (73%) and fourth-highest yards per target (9.5) to receivers this season. Collins, Christian Kirk and ascending Jayden Higgins stand to benefit.
Shadow Report: Downgrade Tennessee’s wide receivers against Houston’s dominant pass defense. The Texans have allowed the fifth-fewest catches, touchdowns (five) and fantasy points (third-fewest points to the perimeter) to the position. Only three receivers have reached 13 fantasy points against them (and one was thanks, in part, to a return touchdown). Note that, while Derek Stingley Jr. didn’t shadow Calvin Ridley when these teams met in Week 4, he still covered him on half his routes and Ridley was held to 5.0 fantasy points while playing a limited role. In fact, Titans receivers totaled 13.0 fantasy points in the game. Tennessee’s pass game is best avoided most weeks, but especially here in Week 11.
Over/under: 40.3 (Lowest)
Win probability: Texans 88% (Highest)
Projected score: Bears 26, Vikings 23
Lineup locks: D’Andre Swift, Justin Jefferson, Rome Odunze, Jordan Addison
Fantasy scoop: J.J. McCarthy was finally asked to throw the ball around a bit last week (career-high 42 pass attempts after not clearing 25 during his first three games), which allowed him a career-high 248 yards (he was under 160 in the first three outings). McCarthy’s efficiency wasn’t great and he’s averaging 6.4 yards per pass attempt while completing an ugly 54% of his passes this season.
McCarthy guided Jalen Nailor to a career day (5-124-1) on Sunday, but no other Viking reached 40 receiving yards. In fact, Nailor joins Jefferson (81 yards in Week 2) as the only Vikings who have reached 50 receiving yards in a game with McCarthy this season. Jefferson (12.6 fantasy PPG in four games), T.J. Hockenson (4.7 PPG in four games) and Addison (7.5 in two games) have been severely hampered with McCarthy under center, though perhaps there’s some reason for hope this week against a Chicago defense that has allowed 20 passing TDs (third most) this season. Speaking of which …
Shadow Report: We’re upgrading the aforementioned Minnesota receivers against a Chicago defense that is still without top corners Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon. Tyrique Stevenson and Nahshon Wright have been working as the boundary corners, with Chauncey Gardner-Johnson recently joining the team and taking over as the primary slot. The Bears have surrendered the fifth-most fantasy points, second-most TDs (13) and the third-highest yards per target (9.7) to receivers. Jefferson, Addison and deep sleeper Nailor (fresh off a big game) get a boost, though Jefferson is the lone lineup lock.
Over/under: 49 (9th highest)
Win probability: Bears 58% (12th highest)
Projected score: Packers 27, Giants 23
Lineup locks: Josh Jacobs, Wan’Dale Robinson
Fantasy scoop: Theo Johnson is fresh off a strong Week 10 outing in which he posted career-high marks in targets (eight), receptions (seven) and yardage (75). The second-year tight end is up to 12th among tight ends in fantasy points and he’s now delivered a top-12 finish in two straight and three of his past four. After averaging 3.0 targets and 3.6 fantasy points in three games with Russell Wilson at quarterback and Malik Nabers fully healthy, Johnson averaged 6.0 targets and 11.9 points per game in seven outings with Jaxson Dart under center and Nabers sidelined.
Johnson has struggled to generate yardage (18th among TEs with 314) but has made up for it with solid usage near the goal line (five TDs and four end zone targets both rank top six at the position). Johnson is a bit over his skis in the TD department (2.8 xTD), but he’s seeing enough work to hang on the TE1 fringe moving forward. He’d be a stronger Week 11 streamer if Dart (concussion) was healthy, but he’s still on the TE1 radar with Jameis Winston under center.
Over/under: 49.7 (6th highest)
Win probability: Packers 60% (9th highest)
Projected score: Steelers 28, Bengals 24
Lineup locks: Jaylen Warren, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins
Fantasy scoop: Week 11’s “streamer of the week'” is Aaron Rodgers. That might seem absurd considering Rodgers has posted consecutive duds, including a 6.4-point effort against the Chargers on Sunday, but this week’s matchup is too good to ignore. The Bengals sit top five in yards, TDs and fantasy points to QBs. After holding Joe Flacco to 12.2 points in Week 1, the Bengals have allowed eight consecutive QBs to reach 15 fantasy points (22.2 average), including a season-high 38.7 to Caleb Williams in their most recent game.
Rodgers hasn’t been a consistent fantasy option this season, but he’s delivered in good matchups and that includes the four TDs and 22.6 points he scored when these teams played in Week 7. Rodgers is a fine streaming option against the defense allowing the highest EPA against the pass.
Shadow Report: Expect DJ Turner to shadow DK Metcalf this week, as he did when these teams met in Week 7. In that game, Turner lined up against Metcalf on 26 of his 33 routes, including 26 of 27 on the perimeter. Metcalf was limited to three catches for 50 yards on five targets (which started a streak of 8.0 or fewer fantasy points in three of his next four games spanning Weeks 7-10). Turner has been a bright spot on an otherwise horrendous Bengals defense, having allowed 8.2 fantasy PPG to the seven receivers he’s shadowed.
Metcalf, meanwhile, is averaging 8.8 fantasy PPG during four games he was shadowed. He should, of course, be downgraded and has major bust potential. Note that Cincinnati has been extremely generous to players Turner hasn’t covered (worst defensive EPA), so all secondary skill players get a big boost this week.
Shadow Report: Upgrade the Cincinnati passing game against a Pittsburgh defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, including the sixth most to the perimeter and third most to the slot. The Steelers have surrendered the most targets, catches and yards to the position, and six receivers have reached 20 points against them. That includes Michael Pittman Jr. and Ladd McConkey over the past two weeks, as well as both Chase (38.1) and Higgins (21.6) when these teams met in Week 7.
Over/under: 52.9 (2nd highest)
Win probability: Steelers 64% (7th highest)
Projected score: Chargers 26, Jaguars 21
Lineup locks: Justin Herbert, Travis Etienne Jr., Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston
Fantasy scoop: Jakobi Meyers made his Jaguars debut in Week 10 and played just 23 of 55 snaps. That put him well behind Parker Washington (47 snaps) and Tim Patrick (38), with Dyami Brown (21) just behind. And that was with Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter sidelined.
Meyers, who was targeted three times, is a candidate for a larger workload as he learns the offense, but he can’t be trusted in fantasy lineups until he’s seeing more work. If Thomas is back this week, he’s a WR3, whereas Washington, who has scored 17-plus fantasy points in consecutive games, would be a deep-league flex option and Meyers would belong on benches. If Thomas remains out, Washington is a WR3 and Meyers a flex.
Shadow Report: Part of the reason we’re not too high on Jacksonville’s receivers is the tough matchup against a Chargers defense that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to receivers, including the fewest to the perimeter and fourth fewest to the slot. Los Angeles has allowed the third-fewest yards and TDs (five) to receivers, as well as the second-lowest catch rate (56%) and third-lowest yards per target (6.8).
Over/under: 47.3 (11th highest)
Win probability: Chargers 66% (5th highest)
Projected score: Rams 27, Seahawks 23
Lineup locks: Kyren Williams, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams
Fantasy scoop: Rashid Shaheed made his Seattle debut on Sunday and played 18 of 59 snaps. The low usage was primarily a product of game script, as Seattle built a massive early lead and passed only 13 times in the game. Shaheed ran a route on eight of those plays, which trailed only Smith-Njigba (11) and Cooper Kupp (nine) for most on the team.
The good news is that Shaheed was immediately a primary piece of the passing game, but the bad news is the quick reminder that he’s joining an extremely low-volume pass attack (Sam Darnold is averaging 25.3 pass attempts per game, whereas the Saints averaged 35.0 per game during Weeks 1-9 while Shaheed was on the roster). Shaheed is a strong bet for a boost in volume in a better game script against the Rams this week, but he remains best valued as a boom/bust flex flier.
Over/under: 50.1 (5th highest)
Win probability: Rams 65% (6th highest)
Projected score: 49ers 25, Cardinals 25
Lineup locks: Christian McCaffrey, Jauan Jennings, Trey McBride, George Kittle
Fantasy scoop: One quarterback has finished top 12 in fantasy points in each of his past four games: Jacoby Brissett. The veteran passer has delivered exactly two passing TDs and 19-plus fantasy points in all four starts, while avoiding turnovers (one INT) and adding some value with his legs (80 yards and one TD during the stretch).
Brissett benefited greatly from garbage time during last week’s 22-point loss to Seattle, but he’s positioned with a good Week 11 matchup against a 49ers defense that has allowed the fourth-highest EPA against the pass. San Francisco has allowed 19 passing TDs (seventh most), while generating only 12 sacks (fewest) and one INT (second fewest). Both Jaxson Dart (27.2) and Matthew Stafford (26.9) have produced top-5 fantasy outings against the Niners over the last two weeks. The absence of Marvin Harrison Jr. is detrimental, but Brissett is still on the streaming radar this week.
Over/under: 49.5 (7th highest)
Win probability: 49ers 50% (Lowest)
Projected score: Ravens 24, Browns 19
Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Quinshon Judkins, Zay Flowers
Fantasy scoop: Jerry Jeudy entered the Browns’ Week 9 bye with zero TDs or games with more than 11.6 fantasy points. He now has one of each after delivering a 6-78-1 receiving line (all three are season highs) on 12 targets in Week 10. The strong showing is reason for some optimism, especially considering that he’s now seen 12-plus targets in two of his past three games and his 21% target share on the season isn’t too far off his career-high 23% mark when he finished sixth in yards and 12th in fantasy points among WRs last season.
Jeudy’s big game was somewhat predictable against a Sauce Gardner-less Jets defense, but, by the numbers, the Browns have the easiest rest-of-season schedule for receivers. Jeudy is back on the WR3/flex radar this week against a Baltimore defense that slowed Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison but allowed 23.4 points to Jalen Nailor in Week 10.
Over/under: 42.4 (13th highest)
Win probability: Ravens 66% (4th highest)
Projected score: Chiefs 24, Broncos 22
Lineup locks: Patrick Mahomes, Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce
Fantasy scoop: Week 17 of the 2022 season. That’s the last time Mahomes reached 18.0 fantasy points in a game against the rival Broncos. Mahomes has faced Denver three times over the past two seasons and has a total of two TDs and three INTs in those games, averaging 13.2 fantasy PPG during the span. Of course, the Chiefs offense is the best it’s been since prior to 2022, so while Mahomes isn’t the high-end lineup lock that he usually is, he remains a back-end starting option. Note that Denver has allowed the fewest passing TDs (eight) and the second-fewest fantasy points to QBs this season. Only three QBs have reached 15 fantasy points against the Broncos.
Shadow Report: Downgrade Denver’s wide receivers against a Chiefs defense that has allowed the second-fewest yards and sixth-fewest fantasy points to receivers this season, as well as the fewest points over the past eight weeks. Only three receivers have reached 15 fantasy points against the Chiefs this season. Sutton (held below 11 fantasy points in four of his past five), Franklin (has out-targeted Sutton in four straight and on the season), Pat Bryant and Marvin Mims Jr. will have their hands full against a Kansas City cornerback rotation headlined by Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson.
Over/under: 45.4 (12th highest)
Win probability: Chiefs 57% (13th highest)
Projected score: Eagles 27, Lions 26
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Sam LaPorta, Dallas Goedert
Fantasy scoop: Detroit seems to have unlocked Jameson Williams during its Week 8 bye. In his first seven games of the season, Williams put together two big games (18.8 and 18.6 points) but was held below 7.0 points in the other five. In two games since the bye, Williams has posted receiving lines of 4-66-1 and 6-119-1, which has allowed 16-plus fantasy points in both. Williams’ 18.8% target share during the two games is more aligned with his 18.5% mark from 2024 and a step up from his 15.4% share during Weeks 1-7.
Williams is far from out of the clear, of course, and he’s set up with a tough Week 11 matchup against an Eagles defense that has faced the sixth-most WR targets, but that has allowed only four TDs (second fewest) to the position. No receiver has reached 23.0 points against them in a game this season. Williams should see plenty of Quinyon Mitchell and is best viewed as a WR3/flex.
Over/under: 53 (Highest)
Win probability: Eagles 53% (14th highest)
Projected score: Cowboys 27, Raiders 22
Lineup locks: Ashton Jeanty, Javonte Williams, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Brock Bowers, Jake Ferguson
Fantasy scoop: In their first game after trading Jakobi Meyers, the Raiders’ WR usage was as follows: Tre Tucker had 33 routes and three targets, Tyler Lockett 26 routes and six targets, Dont’e Thornton Jr. 20 routes and two targets, Jack Bech seven routes and one target, and Alex Bachman two routes and zero targets. Granted they were dealing with a terrific Denver defense, but the group combined for 16.3 fantasy points, with none of the five reaching 45 yards or 10 points.
This is going to be a situation best avoided moving forward, though there’s some sleeper appeal this week against a Dallas defense that, while healthier and improved during the bye, has still allowed the most TDs (16) and second-most fantasy points to receivers this season. Tucker is the lone Raiders receiver worth considering for your flex.
Over/under: 48.3 (10th highest)
Win probability: Cowboys 68% (3rd highest)